Looking back just one month ago, Newsday's Greg Logan added to the speculation in Long Island about the choice between Tavares and Hedman with this article. GM Hockey's ardent followers of news and views on draft prospects will recognize the mention of The Redline Report cited here:
Scouting service: Hedman No. 1, Tavares No. 3
GREG LOGAN greg.logan@newsday.com /April 20, 2009
Islanders owner Charles Wang and general manager Garth Snow traveled to London, Ontario, last night to scout potential No. 1 draft pick John Tavares in an Ontario Hockey League playoff game, according to a source. But if you believe one independent scouting report, they might have been looking at the trailer in what is starting to shape up as a three-horse race leading up to the June 26 NHL draft.
"Redline Report,'' an independent scouting service nearly every NHL team uses as a cross-checking reference, recently downgraded Tavares to the No. 3 spot in its rankings behind Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman and Brampton center Matt Duchene.
"I've always felt Hedman should be the No. 1 pick,'' said Kyle Woodlief, the publisher and chief scout of Redline Report. "The reason we flip-flopped Duchene and Tavares is due to the fact Tavares' effort level has been underwhelming through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
"Right now, he's the third-best draft-eligible forward on his own team behind Nazem Kadri and Phil Varone. Tavares and Varone have about the same number of points, but Varone is plus-16 and Tavares is even. Five-on-five, Tavares has been nothing short of a liability. His attitude of entitlement stinks.''
Entering Game 4 of the Western Conference finals against Windsor last night, Tavares had nine goals and a total of 19 points in 12 playoff games. But Woodlief said no one should confuse him with such well-rounded superstars as Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby.
The analogy he made was to Brett Hull, who scored lots of goals but was indifferent on defense and sometimes was described as selfish.
"Tavares may score 40 or 50 goals a season, but he's one-dimensional,'' Woodlief said. "If he's not scoring, he's not helping.''
It has been a long time since the Islanders, who scored the fewest goals in the NHL this season, have had a true sniper.
"To say that someone who can score 40, 50 goals is a liability is hard,'' said agent Pat Brisson, who represents both Tavares and Duchene. "There's a handful of players who can score 40 goals in the NHL, and every club would want one and would pay premium dollars.''
Snow is expected to make additional trips to see the top prospects, including Duchene, who is playing in the OHL Eastern Conference finals. Should the Islanders eventually settle on Tavares as the pick, Brisson assured that they would have no trouble getting him into a jersey.
Recalling a recent conversation with Snow, Brisson said: "I told Garth, 'If you draft John, he'd look forward to playing for your organization.' If he's drafted by the Islanders, he probably has a chance to play right away and contribute, and it's the New York market. We had a nice talk.''
When this season began, Tavares was the consensus choice as the No. 1 pick. Perhaps because he has been under so much scrutiny, his support has eroded even though he led the OHL with 58 goals and 104 points. Some wonder if Tavares is closer now to his ceiling for improvement than either Duchene or Hedman.
"A 220-pound defenseman who skates great and has offensive upside doesn't come along very often,'' Woodlief said of Hedman. "He's dramatically ahead of Chris Pronger at the same age. I put Duchene ahead of Tavares because he's the most complete forward in the draft. He's a Steve Yzerman-type. If he's not scoring, he's a center who can act as your shutdown guy against the other team's top line.''
Rankings aside, Brisson agreed Tavares has serious competition for the No. 1 pick. "Hedman is very good even though he might not have had the best tournament at the World Juniors,'' Brisson said, making a sly reference to the fact that Tavares was MVP of that tournament for gold medal-winning Canada. "It really depends on what a team needs, but I definitely think those three players will be the first three in the draft.''