All Hockey talk all the time

If you analyze what it would take to move up/down in draft order, using last years points/draft order as a reference, this is where we are at (before lottery reshuffles):

Current points: 37 points after 43 games (39 games remaining)

Thus:

<= 34 points --> <=71 pts = last place/1st pick --> 0.436 winning percentage
<= 34 points --> <=71 pts = 29th place/2nd pick --> 0.436 winning percentage
35-39 points --> 72-76pts = 28th/3rd --> 0.449-0.500
40-42 points --> 77-79pts = 27th/4th --> 0.513-0.538
40-42 points --> 77-79pts = 26th/5th --> 0.513-0.538
43 points --> 80 points = 25th/6th --> 0.551
44-46 points --> 81-83 pts = 24th/7th pick --> 0.564-0.590
44-46 points --> 81-83 pts = 23rd/8th pick --> 0.564-0.590
47-48 points --> 84-85 pts = 22nd/9th pick --> 0.603-0.615
49-51 points --> 86-88 pts = 21st/10th pick --> 0.628-0.654
49-51 points --> 86-88 pts = 20th/11th pick --> 0.628-0.654
49-51 points --> 86-88 pts = 19th/12th pick --> 0.628-0.654

I would guess that anything more than about 0.500 hockey is pushing it (guessing 0.600-0.650 at home, maybe 0.300-0.350 on the road - ???), thus even without "tanking", we are looking at a bottom 4-5 position. Even with lottery reshuffling, this means we should be able to snag Cowen (at 4th). He's not Hedman, but he'll do.

Edited for spelling correction @ 9:15pm 2009-01-20

Yes, Cowen most certainly will do.

'Druther Hedman though.

Hypothetically speaking:

Heatley for Wilson Blum 1st
Kuba, Vermette for Columbus 1st

Sucking, we could grab Hedman, and then use our 3 other first-rounders to try to grab MSP to fill the void left by Heatley, and we'd pick up a 2nd line centre of the future in Wilson and a very nice d-man prospect in Blum.

Of course, as soon as I get comfortable with the idea of dealing Heatley, he re-appears.

asq2 wrote:Yes, Cowen most certainly will do.

'Druther Hedman though.

Hypothetically speaking:

Heatley for Wilson Blum 1st
Kuba, Vermette for Columbus 1st

Sucking, we could grab Hedman, and then use our 3 other first-rounders to try to grab MSP to fill the void left by Heatley, and we'd pick up a 2nd line centre of the future in Wilson and a very nice d-man prospect in Blum.

Of course, as soon as I get comfortable with the idea of dealing Heatley, he re-appears.

Love that Nashville deal. Would they want a huge contract though?

Kuba and Vermette for one draft pick? That pick could very well end up being 15th or worse. Seems like a steep price to pay.

hemlock wrote:

asq2 wrote:Yes, Cowen most certainly will do.

'Druther Hedman though.

Hypothetically speaking:

Heatley for Wilson Blum 1st
Kuba, Vermette for Columbus 1st

Sucking, we could grab Hedman, and then use our 3 other first-rounders to try to grab MSP to fill the void left by Heatley, and we'd pick up a 2nd line centre of the future in Wilson and a very nice d-man prospect in Blum.

Of course, as soon as I get comfortable with the idea of dealing Heatley, he re-appears.

Love that Nashville deal. Would they want a huge contract though?

Kuba and Vermette for one draft pick? That pick could very well end up being 15th or worse. Seems like a steep price to pay.

My point was that we should end up with a decent draft pick, even without trading.

Heatley has the potential to light it up; he needs someone to feed him, and it needs to start behind our blue line. I think that part of the problem right now is that he isn't having fun right now because he's frustrated. He'll come around, once we have a decent defensive corps. Spezza has begun the transformation, and Alfie is Alfie. None of them should go right now.

Fisher, well, maybe Carrie can convince him to move to Nashville?

Vermette will be gone; it's either him or Kelly, and Vermette will bring more back. Kuba is gone by trade or free agency. Neil may have to go, although for $1.25 or less, I'd be happy to keep him.

Phillips is in a funk but will come out of it; we need him to teach the kids. He's a good 3/4 D to keep. Pair him Lee, and put Karlsson with Volchenkov next year. Picard and Smith become your 5/6 pairing, and we're not in bad shape. Keep Cowen down for a year, bring him up periodically for injuries, and our D shapes up nicely.

Atlanta won again tonight, beating the Habs. Even with the Sens win, they still manage to keep pace. TBay and Atl playing well could really do tank nation a favour. Now only if we could motivate the Islanders to win a few games, we'd be in business. Just kidding. They don't have a win in 09 yet. No chance anyway collapses and finishes below them.

hemlock wrote:Atlanta won again tonight, beating the Habs. Even with the Sens win, they still manage to keep pace. TBay and Atl playing well could really do tank nation a favour. Now only if we could motivate the Islanders to win a few games, we'd be in business. Just kidding. They don't have a win in 09 yet. No chance anyway collapses and finishes below them.

No matter about the Isles.
Second last is perfectly fine, as long as Garth understands that he needs Tavares, not Hedman.

Either that, or we pray that the lottery balls fall just right.

I can guarantee that NYI would take Tavares. Guarantee.

asq2 wrote:I can guarantee that NYI would take Tavares. Guarantee.

Then 29th place is fine, right?

Based on last year's stats/totals, we can still play almost .500 hockey and get 3rd overall (including tonight's game). Considering that two years ago, we played 0.640 for the season, I'd say that 0.500 is a ceiling, not a ballpark estimate. If we go 0.640 the rest of the way (pipe dream) we are still looking at 10th-12th overall, and that's absolute worst case (i.e. if we play as well as NJ has for the rest of the season).

If we go on an absolute tear, and play like SJ - 0.770 - then we end up with about the 20th pick. But then we become a cup contender, so it messes things up anyhow.

Acrobat wrote:

asq2 wrote:I can guarantee that NYI would take Tavares. Guarantee.

Then 29th place is fine, right?

Based on last year's stats/totals, we can still play almost .500 hockey and get 3rd overall (including tonight's game). Considering that two years ago, we played 0.640 for the season, I'd say that 0.500 is a ceiling, not a ballpark estimate. If we go 0.640 the rest of the way (pipe dream) we are still looking at 10th-12th overall, and that's absolute worst case (i.e. if we play as well as NJ has for the rest of the season).

If we go on an absolute tear, and play like SJ - 0.770 - then we end up with about the 20th pick. But then we become a cup contender, so it messes things up anyhow.

The odds of this team playing at a .770 clip are roughly the same as Alessandra Ambrosio showing up at my home to profess her undying love and devotion to me. To call our defense patchwork is being kind. I don't see Bell or Picard as long term solutions. Both are stop gaps, until we can organize ourselves, or guys like Wiercioch and Karlsson are ready. I dunno if I can take that for two more years though

I don't even want .500 anymore. I want bad. I literally get angry when they win now, especially against a good team like the Caps. This win does nothing but hurt our draft position potentially. Yes there are some positives to take from this game (PP clicked, Heatley earned some money), but the fact remains that Washington mailed this in (except for Ovie who apparently tries to outshoot the opposition all by himself). They were clearly tired and it showed. Kudos to the Sens for taking advantage of this, but it's a day late and a dollar short.

hemlock wrote:
The odds of this team playing at a .770 clip are roughly the same as Alessandra Ambrosio showing up at my home to profess her undying love and devotion to me. To call our defense patchwork is being kind. I don't see Bell or Picard as long term solutions. Both are stop gaps, until we can organize ourselves, or guys like Wiercioch and Karlsson are ready. I dunno if I can take that for two more years though

I don't even want .500 anymore. I want bad. I literally get angry when they win now, especially against a good team like the Caps. This win does nothing but hurt our draft position potentially. Yes there are some positives to take from this game (PP clicked, Heatley earned some money), but the fact remains that Washington mailed this in (except for Ovie who apparently tries to outshoot the opposition all by himself). They were clearly tired and it showed. Kudos to the Sens for taking advantage of this, but it's a day late and a dollar short.

If she shows up, call me. Or at least send pics.

In the meantime, I'll enjoy the Sens, win or lose, because no matter what, they'll get no worse than 10th, and from the table I posted, they'll most likely end up 2nd to 6th. From that, we end up with Hedman, Duchesne, Cowen, MSP, Schenn, or the like. I'll take any of them (Hedman first of course). At that level, the lottery becomes more of a factor, since it's going to bump four teams down one.

So each loss is good. Each win is fine, since I know that it won't lead anywhere this year, and it won't make a hoot of difference in the long run.

Phoenix Coyotes defeat the Detroit Red Wings 6-3, moving into 5th place in the Western Conference.



In that game, Nik Lidstrom tied Brian Leetch for 8th place in powerplay goals by a defenceman with 111.

Also, Ken Klee played his 900th career game.

How the heck did Ken Klee get to 900 games. Good for him though.

504Heater wrote:How the heck did Ken Klee get to 900 games. Good for him though.

Ken Klee is still playing in the NHL?

PKC wrote:Ken Klee is still playing in the NHL?

Wait...is he? Atlanta?

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=793

Phoenix. Huh...who knew?

Pat Burns diagnosed with cancer again

wprager wrote:Pat Burns diagnosed with cancer again

Oh that's a real shame.