Ottawa-Florida to play in Halifax

asq2 wrote:

davetherave wrote:

Acrobat wrote:With all the rumblings around some of the other teams on shaky financial footing, the Irvings may not have to get involved with Balsillie. They could just wait for the next team to be put up for sale, then do things the "proper" way.

I'm not convinced that any city in the Maritimes has the population density to support the NHL, though - if you are trying to convince people to drive in from 150km away for each of 41 games, you had better be a damn good salesman.

You don't think people in the Maritimes will drive or take a bus two hours to see an NHL hockey game?

Have you checked out how many fans come down from Montreal to see the Habs play the Sens?

Heck, do you know how many fans travel far and wide to see their teams?

A few times a year, sure. 41 times a season? Less convinced.

Whenever you are looking to evaluate the viability of a business that depends on factors like population density, income, and willingness to spend on a particular product or service, you undertake a thorough study of that market.

Furthermore, in the case of what is called "market expansion initiatives", one undertakes an ancillary study to determine what strategic and tactical moves need to be made in order to achieve critical mass and profitability.

Your opinion, my opinion and anyone else's opinion, in that respect, is irrelevant.

Is there a viable market for an NHL team in Halifax? I've yet to see the facts presented either way.

davetherave wrote:

Acrobat wrote:With all the rumblings around some of the other teams on shaky financial footing, the Irvings may not have to get involved with Balsillie. They could just wait for the next team to be put up for sale, then do things the "proper" way.

I'm not convinced that any city in the Maritimes has the population density to support the NHL, though - if you are trying to convince people to drive in from 150km away for each of 41 games, you had better be a damn good salesman.

You don't think people in the Maritimes will drive or take a bus two hours to see an NHL hockey game?

Have you checked out how many fans come down from Montreal to see the Habs play the Sens?

Heck, do you know how many fans travel far and wide to see their teams?

Not 41 times in a season (plus pre-season, plus playoffs). You need 12K in season tickets or equivalents (combos of half/quarter seasons packs) and a very strong walk-up base. It's not like football where the home games are once every two weeks (on average). The only way you get those kinds of numbers from walk-ups (drive ups ) is if you have a base of 1-2M within a half-hour drive, and 3-5M within a 2 hour drive.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:

Acrobat wrote:With all the rumblings around some of the other teams on shaky financial footing, the Irvings may not have to get involved with Balsillie. They could just wait for the next team to be put up for sale, then do things the "proper" way.

I'm not convinced that any city in the Maritimes has the population density to support the NHL, though - if you are trying to convince people to drive in from 150km away for each of 41 games, you had better be a damn good salesman.

You don't think people in the Maritimes will drive or take a bus two hours to see an NHL hockey game?

Have you checked out how many fans come down from Montreal to see the Habs play the Sens?

Heck, do you know how many fans travel far and wide to see their teams?

Not 41 times in a season (plus pre-season, plus playoffs). You need 12K in season tickets or equivalents (combos of half/quarter seasons packs) and a very strong walk-up base. It's not like football where the home games are once every two weeks (on average). The only way you get those kinds of numbers from walk-ups (drive ups ) is if you have a base of 1-2M within a half-hour drive, and 3-5M within a 2 hour drive.

See above...

...and now for something (not so) completely different....

WHOA!! This is FANTASTIC news!

I'll DEFINITELY make the 4 hr trip for this one!

I assume it's at the Metro center!!

Some fast facts about the Halifax Regional Municipality:

Population (2007)

385,500 (regional municipality)

282,924 (urban)

407,007 (metro area) One would want to do a thorough analysis to determine if 5% of the population would form the core of a potential NHL hockey audience.

The population is certainly one that could theoretically (but barely) fill the stands in good times.

However, in a down economy, with the team losing, is what I'd worry about.

Ottawa saw a dip in ticket sales through the season despite the insulation of a government city and a relatively strong (less weak?) national economy. Poor play could only have affected the walk-ups/non-season sales, as the season tickets were committed to much earlier

Also, a portion of the population is employed seasonally; this would mean that at various times of the year, limiting factors other than finances would come into play (i.e. lack of time).

Finally, what would you call the team - the Halifax Haddock? :^^^^:
Almost as bad as the Mighty Ducks...

Acrobat wrote:The population is certainly one that could theoretically (but barely) fill the stands in good times.

However, in a down economy, with the team losing, is what I'd worry about.

Ottawa saw a dip in ticket sales through the season despite the insulation of a government city and a relatively strong (less weak?) national economy. Poor play could only have affected the walk-ups/non-season sales, as the season tickets were committed to much earlier

Also, a portion of the population is employed seasonally; this would mean that at various times of the year, limiting factors other than finances would come into play (i.e. lack of time).

Finally, what would you call the team - the Halifax Haddock? :^^^^:
Almost as bad as the Mighty Ducks...

As I said, until you have the facts, there's no argument for or against Halifax.

So why shouldn't they be considered for an NHL team?

And how do YOU know they couldn't fill the stands? What information have you looked at that supports that conclusion?

You simply don't know, is my point.

Conversely, Hamilton already has access to two teams within an 80km radius, therefore that population base is, in principle, over-served rather than under-served.

As for what the team is called, who cares at this stage?

FYI re: Hamilton

504,559 (city)

647,634 (urban)

692,911 (metro) The raw numbers tell you nothing about demographics or psychographics, or the propensity/means to spend on hockey.

Regarding Hamilton, a lot of people are making an assumption that, just because the Leafs seel out all the time, the population is starved for hockey. My point (in the other thread) had been hat, just because there are more Leafs fans than you can shake a stick at, doesn't mean that any of them would switch allegiance.

As for Halifax, it's smaller than Ottawa/Gatineau and does not have the insulating effect of steady federal employment. The high-tech sector has also helped in selling suites (although that has steadily changed over the last 5 years).

Anyhow, it's not my money, so I'm not doing any real research.

Agreed with my good friend Mr Prager...

Before people decide a hockey market's a 'good' or 'not good' market, whether it's 'un-served' or 'well-served', they might want to have the facts at their disposal.

From a marketing perspective, the NHL is doing exactly what smart companies do by 'testing' the market with exhibition games.

Holding games in Halifax and Winnipeg allows them to gather market information as well as stimulate interest from potential investors.

wprager wrote:Regarding Hamilton, a lot of people are making an assumption that, just because the Leafs seel out all the time, the population is starved for hockey. My point (in the other thread) had been hat, just because there are more Leafs fans than you can shake a stick at, doesn't mean that any of them would switch allegiance.

As for Halifax, it's smaller than Ottawa/Gatineau and does not have the insulating effect of steady federal employment. The high-tech sector has also helped in selling suites (although that has steadily changed over the last 5 years).

Anyhow, it's not my money, so I'm not doing any real research.

I think what they're relying on is the Buffalo effect. What has happened with a number of Toronto fans is they have turned to buying Season tickets to the Sabres in order to get their Hockey fix. With a team in Hamliton perhaps that team gets these fans turning to them? I don't know but it seems awfully silly for a person to be pushing hard for another team in Southern Ontario purely on a hunch that it'll do well. But hey as DTR pointed out sometimes Billionaires can be stupid. Do I believe it? No not really.

davetherave wrote:Some fast facts about the Halifax Regional Municipality:

Population (2007)

385,500 (regional municipality)

282,924 (urban)

407,007 (metro area) One would want to do a thorough analysis to determine if 5% of the population would form the core of a potential NHL hockey audience.

not to mention that a few other municipalities, such as Saint John, Moncton, Fredericton, they are only a short jaunt down the highway away, just have that damn toll booth by Truro, maybe we can crash the gate.

I can say that Maritimers LOOVE their hockey, so the support, in theory, could be there.

I wouldn't be opposed to an NHL franchise but hey, I'm no Bettman (thank god). LOL

davetherave wrote:

Acrobat wrote:The population is certainly one that could theoretically (but barely) fill the stands in good times.

However, in a down economy, with the team losing, is what I'd worry about.

Ottawa saw a dip in ticket sales through the season despite the insulation of a government city and a relatively strong (less weak?) national economy. Poor play could only have affected the walk-ups/non-season sales, as the season tickets were committed to much earlier

Also, a portion of the population is employed seasonally; this would mean that at various times of the year, limiting factors other than finances would come into play (i.e. lack of time).

Finally, what would you call the team - the Halifax Haddock? :^^^^:
Almost as bad as the Mighty Ducks...

As I said, until you have the facts, there's no argument for or against Halifax.

So why shouldn't they be considered for an NHL team?

And how do YOU know they couldn't fill the stands? What information have you looked at that supports that conclusion?

You simply don't know, is my point.

Conversely, Hamilton already has access to two teams within an 80km radius, therefore that population base is, in principle, over-served rather than under-served.

As for what the team is called, who cares at this stage?

FYI re: Hamilton

504,559 (city)

647,634 (urban)

692,911 (metro) The raw numbers tell you nothing about demographics or psychographics, or the propensity/means to spend on hockey.

Wow...

OK, let me clarify:

I am expressing the issues that I have the biggest concern over; I am not stating that it is an untenable endeavour. The purpose of market research is to determine the validity of these issues, however, I would point out that PeeWee Herman himself (AKA Bettman) has stated that one of his reasons for the expansion into the US instead of Canada was the population density, when he referred to specific pockets. I am, reluctantly, forced to agree with this, as people are more likely to drive to an arena that is 20 min away than one that is 90 min away - all other things being equal.

In terms of the comparison of populations of Hamilton vs. Halifax (or any other city), this is more appropriately done by assessing cachement area - this is not limited by city or municipal boundaries. Again, this goes to transportation distances and times; the NHL likely has a formula for determining their cachement area either in terms of distance from the arena or road/travel time, then figuring the population encompassed. The population density along the southern Ontario stretch is, on aggregate, one of the highest in Canada. Mathematically, this makes it more likely for any cachement area to include more people. Average incomes are also higher in this region; even with higher costs of living, disposable income is typically higher.

Conversely, competition with the Leafs will certainly reduce potential market, however the length of the waiting list for tickets and the absence of reduction in said waiting list despite a 40-year hiatus from the Cup celebration lead me to believe that there is sufficient demand to support a second team if placed a reasonable distance away. I don't believe (opinion, no basis in fact) that Buffalo would have a large impact after a 10-12 year settling-in period.

Given the above, it is my opinion that Hamilton or K-W would be a more lucrative option from a league perspective. Again, this is my opinion, and I am quite happy to admit I'm wrong about it if the league wants to put a team in Halifax. I'd love to teams in K-W, Halifax, Winnipeg, and a host of other Canadian cities, as long as they have a chance of surviving.

FWIW, I also believe that it is in the best interest of the league for Balsillie not to win; as much as I dislike Bettman, I think that the legal implications of the NHL losing this battle could cripple not just this league, but all of the other pro leagues as well.

p.s. the name Halifax Haddocks was thrown out tongue in cheek, because we once played a team by that name in a tournament; our team continually found the name humourous, for reasons that escape me (at 11-12yo, perhaps no reason was needed...)

Acrobat...I agree with everything you said in the above post.

Of course Hamilton is--on the surface anyway--the more lucrative market. That's a no brainer.

Is a team in Hamilton the best thing for Canada's hockey fans?

I don't think so.

I don't think the good folks in Halifax think so. Or the good folks in Winnipeg.

Can those cities support NHL teams? Maybe they can.

The NHL playing exhibition games in places like Halifax and Winnipeg is a positive step...and perhaps a way of moving the process of determining the viability of these markets, forward.

And believe me, I'm NO fan of The Bettman. We all know the game he plays.

davetherave wrote:Acrobat...I agree with everything you said in the above post.

And I apologize for my post - I was in a sour mood for other reasons, and in re-reading it now, my tone was especially inappropriate. Your opinions and input are welcomed (and quite educational), and I had no right to go off like that.

davetherave wrote:Of course Hamilton is--on the surface anyway--the more lucrative market. That's a no brainer.

Is a team in Hamilton the best thing for Canada's hockey fans?

I don't think so.

I don't know (truly hadn't considered it one way or another), but I'll stand by the statement that I believe that if Hamilton does get a team - whether awarded to Balsillie or to someone else - I hope it isn't through legal maneuvering. This will only serve to weaken the lock holding down the weaker Canadian teams during the next "crisis".

davetherave wrote:I don't think the good folks in Halifax think so. Or the good folks in Winnipeg.

Can those cities support NHL teams? Maybe they can.

The NHL playing exhibition games in places like Halifax and Winnipeg is a positive step...and perhaps a way of moving the process of determining the viability of these markets, forward.

I'd love to see hockey return to Canada, for Canadians. Having it run by a Canadian who truly lives and breathes hockey would be nice too.

davetherave wrote:And believe me, I'm NO fan of The Bettman. We all know the game he plays.

If Bettman's replacement needs to be legally trained, needs to be politically savvy, and needs to be a student of the game - can we recruit Ken Dryden?

(I'd argue that Burke would also be a good choice, but I just hate him - Anaheim, then Toronto - just hate him. It's a principle thing.)