Predict the Standings - 2011-2012

Let's get this party started!!

It's that time of year again, with the rookie tournament and training camp just around the corner I thought it would be a good time to get started.

Predict the standings for the upcoming season - a little reasoning for all would be welcomed as well

I will post mine shortly, thought I would get the thread started

Last year's:
http://www.gmhockey.com/t4861p40-predict-the-standings?highlight=standings

Team	Division	2011 points	2011 rank	2012 points	2012 rank
Washington	SE	107	1	110	1
Philadelphia	ATL	106	2	96	2
Boston	NE	103	3	96	3
TampaBay	SE	103	5	98	4
Pittsburgh	ATL	106	4	94	5
Buffalo	NE	96	7	94	6
NYRangers	ATL	93	8	94	7
Toronto	NE	85	10	93	8
Montréal	NE	96	6	92	9
Ottawa	NE	74	13	90	10
NewJersey	ATL	81	11	89	11
Carolina	SE	91	9	86	12
Winnipeg	SE	80	12	78	13
NYIslanders	ATL	73	14	78	14
Florida	SE	72	15	78	15

This is my take on it. I think Philly will take a step back because of all the changes, but they're still a top team (until they get to the post season). Pittsburgh without Sid to start the season will falter. Boston lost Recchi and there's no way Thomas repeats. They will drop, for sure. Not enough offense there. I'm not going to go in detail, but I took a look at each team and did an off-the-top-of-my-head guess at how they would do, point-wise, relative to last year. They I made minor adjustments to make sure the total number of points given out was the same as last year (with 3-point games that's never a guarantee).

Don't ask me to do the West.

Wow. You think TO makes the playoffs?

Atlanta?

Big Ev wrote:Atlanta?

Sorry, originally did a copy/paste from last season's standings into a spreadsheet. Didn't get a chance to change to Winnipeg. But you already knew that, so why ask?

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Wow. You think TO makes the playoffs?

No, not really. The teams from New Jersey (89 points) to Pittsburgh (94) would all be in it to the end. Three of them will miss -- could be Ott, Tor and Mtl, for all I know.

East

1. Washington - Dung or get off the pot for them this season - they're going to have a heck of a time being a top team soon enough
2. Boston - fatigue will be a factor, but they can still beat out everyone else in the Northeast IMO.
3. Rangers - Surging team, just getting better
4. Buffalo - some might think I'm crazy, but if their forwards and d can stay healthy along with Miller, i think they can do some serious damage
It gets much tougher from here for me
5. Jersey - they have the superstars of Kovalchuk and Parise to lead the charge offensively, d is getting better again, brodeur getting old, but this might be a year where he puts everything he has into the season after last seasons hell.
6. Jets - this will be a honeymoon season for them I think they'll be having lots of fun with their fans and new team.
7. Philly - they'll fight with the new team, but can still make the playoffs I think
8. Tampa - i'll give them this spot I know it's low but I still don't think they're there yet
9. Carolina
10. Pittsburgh - I know, low again but things are changing in this league and Crosby won't be back for a while I don't think - it's starting to wear on them for sure
11. Florida
12. Toronto
13. Montreal - very low for them, they are always hard to predict, depends mostly on Price
14. Ottawa
15. NYI

Put me in the camp who think Boston will have a fairly significant drop off (more than what I've got in my numbers, above, even).

I forget where I read this, but Boston was consistently been bad at scoring for quite a while. Last year they had a large number of players hitting career highs in goals -- that's not likely to repeat. Plus they lost some offense and are hoping two sophomore can pick up the slack. Then there's the SCF hangover -- it's real. Finally, is Thomas going to defy his age and continue playing like he did last year? He has nothing to prove and nothing to play for, so I think he's in tough to repeat.

There's also no way I see Ottawa lower than 11-12. Winnipeg, Florida, Islanders, Carolina, New Jersey -- surely we can be better than two of those teams. And if Reimer or Price falter at all those two will be very close, too.

wprager wrote:Put me in the camp who think Boston will have a fairly significant drop off (more than what I've got in my numbers, above, even).

I forget where I read this, but Boston was consistently been bad at scoring for quite a while. Last year they had a large number of players hitting career highs in goals -- that's not likely to repeat. Plus they lost some offense and are hoping two sophomore can pick up the slack. Then there's the SCF hangover -- it's real. Finally, is Thomas going to defy his age and continue playing like he did last year? He has nothing to prove and nothing to play for, so I think he's in tough to repeat.

There's also no way I see Ottawa lower than 11-12. Winnipeg, Florida, Islanders, Carolina, New Jersey -- surely we can be better than two of those teams. And if Reimer or Price falter at all those two will be very close, too.

Nothing to prove and nothing to play for? Are you crazy? I guarantee he's planning on proving that he's capable of repeating that performance. You think that he has nothing to play for since he won the Cup? You think he isn't going to come out of the gate with the intention of winning again? You think one championship is enough for an athlete?

I'm at a loss.

He had a so-so season the year before, and wanted to prove that he was not finished, and that he could come back after surgery. Check. He won a Stanley Cup. Check. He won the Playoffs MVP. Check. He won the Vezina, again. Check. He's got the NHL's best full-season SV%. Check.

I'm not saying he's not even going to try, but let's face it, he's not going to be as hungry as he was last season. Still hungry, but not as hungry as before.

wprager wrote:He had a so-so season the year before, and wanted to prove that he was not finished, and that he could come back after surgery. Check. He won a Stanley Cup. Check. He won the Playoffs MVP. Check. He won the Vezina, again. Check. He's got the NHL's best full-season SV%. Check.

I'm not saying he's not even going to try, but let's face it, he's not going to be as hungry as he was last season. Still hungry, but not as hungry as before.

I disagree. I don't think that [m]any pro athletes have a mental checklist that operates the way you've outlined. I imagine that, after tasting success the way that he did, Thomas will want nothing more than to do it all again.

Either way, I guess we'll see (to some degree...even after watching the season, it's not necessarily possible to quantify a player's drive).

1. Pittsburgh (Tough division might bump them to 2nd)
2. Washington (Never doubt their regular season success)
3. Buffalo (The NorthEast is relatively weak, BUF will emerge)
4. Boston (Slight drop off)
5. Tampa Bay (Roloson for a whole year)
6. NY Rangers (Richards will bring improved offence)
7. Philadelphia (Still have the depth to go far)
8. Montreal (I will never doubt Price)
9. New Jersey (Kovalchuck needs to prove he is a winner)
10. Toronto (Will be right in the thick of things, scoring could be issue)
11. Carolina (Just good enough to hang with the pack)
12. Ottawa (Will be slightly better than expected, but still rebuilding)
13. Winnipeg (Will be reminded why fans in ATL stopped showing up)
14. NY Islanders (Step back for franchise, season after will be breakout)
15. Florida (Overpaying middling players doesn't make them any good)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Vancouver Canucks (Still a top team, still in a weak division)
2. Los Angeles (Lots of young talent, Richards pushes them over the top)
3. Detroit (One more successful season before the major drop-off)
4. San Jose (Improved D will pay dividends)
5. Chicago (Will begin the rise to power once again)
6. Nashville (They need to prove to Weber they are serious about winning)
7. Anaheim (Deadly top line, not much else beyond that though)
8. Dallas Stars (Incredibly underrated, will sneak in without Richards)
9. Columbus Blue Jackets (Perrenial losers miss out again)
10. Minnesota Wild (Improved offence won't help in tough conference)
11. St-Louis Blues (Solid depth, but haven't proven anything with youngins)
12. Calgary Flames (This is the year the sh*t hits the fan)
13. Colorado Avalanche (In this position by default)
14. Phoenix Coyotes (No goaltending will hurt them a ton)
15. Edmonton Oilers (No D, no G, youngins hit sophmore slump, step back)

1.Washington. Not sure about the depth at F to be honest, if here are injuries, which rookie comes up from the A and makes an impact? Like the goal tandem a lot, Vokoun can play - and play well. Problem they might have is that he needs to see a lot of shots to be really effective, otherwise looks good.

2.Pittsburgh. Don't see Philly taking the division, nor do I really see the Rangers winning it (YET), so I'll go with one of the best top 4 Ds in the conference. Even if Crosby doesn't return right away, Malkin will have a couple of real nice wingers to feed - finally. Neal will be a monstrous player this year IMO, Steve Sullivan and J.Staal perhaps? No matter, this team is tightly coached and ready to go.

3.Buffalo. I simply like their roster more than I like Boston's. Beautiful forward depth, nice three lines, plus effective 4th line. Miller is Miller, their D is rock solid. This is the beginning of good things for Sabres' fans.

4.Philly. Don't love what they did in the short term, but it looks pretty good for the next couple of years. B.Schenn has to do something though, not anything like 80 points, but he'll need to notch 40ish in the 3rd line C position. The main focuses are on Jagr and perhaps most importantly Jakob Voracek. If he crashes and burns, there will probably be an issue (although nothing like if Giroux crashes). They better gel quick though...

5.Boston. They'll be in the hunt for the NE title, but in the end, I'm not sure they have the horses to win after a ridiculously long year. Nice to have a kid like Seguin coming in, not too shabby, and the goalie in waiting is a great, young talent.

6.NY Rangers. I've liked this team for a while. Kreider may play this year, and if he does, he'll join Stepan, Dubinsky, Callahan and others that make up the lifeblood of this team. Besides Henrik Lundqvist, the most important players here are Girardi and Staal. Great duo.

7.NJ Devils. This was a team that had a truckload go wrong last year - and with Parise and Kovalchuk, you should be good to go. Better hope Brodeur stays healthy though...

8.TB. Tough decision here between Montreal, TB and Carolina, but I went for TB and coach Boucher. St.Louis is the key to this team. Not fond of the goaltending tandem. One old, one relatively inexperienced in taking over a team if need be (last year he was great though). In the end, it'll be St.Louis/Stamkos + Boucher that can lead this team to a playoff spot, but it'll be tough.

9.Montreal. Could easily take 8th. It literally ALL depends on Carey Price.

10.Carolina. I like this team a lot, but in the end, I think they barely miss this year. McBain, Skinner, Sutter...lots and lots of nice pieces to go with Staal, Ward, Jokinen (personal fav.), Ruutu.

11.Atlanta.

12.Toronto.

13.Ottawa

14.NY Islanders

15.Florida.



EDIT: I changed Ottawa's position slightly after

West.

1.Vancouver.

2.San Jose.

3.Detroit

4.LA

5.Chicago

6.Anaheim

7.Nashville

8.Columbus - Mason, you better be good!

9.Calgary

10.St.Louis

11.Colorado

12.Minny

13.Phoenix

14.Dallas

15.Edmonton

spader wrote:

wprager wrote:He had a so-so season the year before, and wanted to prove that he was not finished, and that he could come back after surgery. Check. He won a Stanley Cup. Check. He won the Playoffs MVP. Check. He won the Vezina, again. Check. He's got the NHL's best full-season SV%. Check.

I'm not saying he's not even going to try, but let's face it, he's not going to be as hungry as he was last season. Still hungry, but not as hungry as before.

I disagree. I don't think that [m]any pro athletes have a mental checklist that operates the way you've outlined. I imagine that, after tasting success the way that he did, Thomas will want nothing more than to do it all again.

Either way, I guess we'll see (to some degree...even after watching the season, it's not necessarily possible to quantify a player's drive).

Never suggested anyone had a checklist. I only enumerated some of the items that *would* add to someone's drive. Are you telling me that hanging an article in the dressing room that downgrades your team makes no difference in how a team performs? Any extra motivation would squeeze just a little bit more -- maybe not enough to make a noticeable, tangible difference, but you never know.

On the flip side is the "I've tasted blood and I want more, more, more" of course, but for a guy approaching his 40s I wonder.