Sinking in the East: What's happening with the Maple Leafs

shabbs wrote:Same for Exelby... Thrasher fans are laughing their asses off at that trade saying Exelby's bad play/decision making is really being exposed in Toronto.

Yeah, but he's a UFA after this year and is getting pretty low $$s. I can see him being waived. He sucks so hard. Orr sucks harder, but Exelby has completely lost it. It's almost shocking, I used to like his style a lot.

asq2 wrote:Here's the thing, though: the Leafs have always bottomed out and then turned it around when it's too late. Even with absolutely terrible rosters, they haven't finished below 7th worst in the league, even when it looked like they were in-line for a top-3 pick.

We'll have to wait and see.

that is very true, the late push by the Leafs always seem to get them on the brink of contention, but not quite there, meaning a mid round pick that doesn't do them all too well.

SpezDispenser wrote:

shabbs wrote:Same for Exelby... Thrasher fans are laughing their asses off at that trade saying Exelby's bad play/decision making is really being exposed in Toronto.

Yeah, but he's a UFA after this year and is getting pretty low $$s. I can see him being waived. He sucks so hard. Orr sucks harder, but Exelby has completely lost it. It's almost shocking, I used to like his style a lot.

This is why putting the right pieces and roles together is so important and not just getting a bunch of truculent/gritty guys and throwing them out on the ice... there needs to be cohesion, balance, clearly defined roles and real leadership. None of that is happening right now with the Leafs. It's a free for all... like when playing football with your budides in the park and the QB says "just get open"... no direction.

A few other posters here and I had been saying well before the trade: Exelby is a barely NHL-calibre player who had been overhyped because of one decent season (when he was young), and a few appearances on the honour roll where taking himself out of position to make a hit actually helped his team.

It's one thing to build a team that won't get pushed around, it's another to confuse the NHL with UFC.

SensFan71 wrote:

asq2 wrote:Here's the thing, though: the Leafs have always bottomed out and then turned it around when it's too late. Even with absolutely terrible rosters, they haven't finished below 7th worst in the league, even when it looked like they were in-line for a top-3 pick.

We'll have to wait and see.

that is very true, the late push by the Leafs always seem to get them on the brink of contention, but not quite there, meaning a mid round pick that doesn't do them all too well.

Here's what it means, though:

Most of us are assuming the worst for the Leafs, and Boston walks away with, say, Taylor Hall and Calvin Pickard in 2010 and Adam Larsson in 2011, while Kessel struggles with the supporting cast given.

The opposite extreme is that the Leafs turn it around somewhat, the addition of Kessel helps them out and they end up at or near a playoff spot, leaving Boston with Mark Pysyk and mid-first/second-rounders in 2010 and 2011. Toronto then creates a very good duo with Kadri and Kessel.

I think somewhere in the middle is more likely: they'll stink, then turn it around, then collapse just as fans start to get hopeful. Boston walks away with maybe the 8th over-all pick, which would still give them a good player (maybe Brandon Gormley) but not necessarily one dramatically better than Kessel. The Leafs continue to improve and Boston maybe gets 14th over-all the next season.

OK, so maybe that's a little optimistic but I don't think the Leafs will end up losing this deal as badly as it looks like they're losing it now.

asq2 wrote:

SensFan71 wrote:

asq2 wrote:Here's the thing, though: the Leafs have always bottomed out and then turned it around when it's too late. Even with absolutely terrible rosters, they haven't finished below 7th worst in the league, even when it looked like they were in-line for a top-3 pick.

We'll have to wait and see.

that is very true, the late push by the Leafs always seem to get them on the brink of contention, but not quite there, meaning a mid round pick that doesn't do them all too well.

Here's what it means, though:

Most of us are assuming the worst for the Leafs, and Boston walks away with, say, Taylor Hall and Calvin Pickard in 2010 and Adam Larsson in 2011, while Kessel struggles with the supporting cast given.

The opposite extreme is that the Leafs turn it around somewhat, the addition of Kessel helps them out and they end up at or near a playoff spot, leaving Boston with Mark Pysyk and mid-first/second-rounders in 2010 and 2011. Toronto then creates a very good duo with Kadri and Kessel.

I think somewhere in the middle is more likely: they'll stink, then turn it around, then collapse just as fans start to get hopeful. Boston walks away with maybe the 8th over-all pick, which would still give them a good player (maybe Brandon Gormley) but not necessarily one dramatically better than Kessel. The Leafs continue to improve and Boston maybe gets 14th over-all the next season.

OK, so maybe that's a little optimistic but I don't think the Leafs will end up losing this deal as badly as it looks like they're losing it now.

well in terms of the Senators, we want the scenario of the Leafs finishing in like 9th or 10th to happen, that way Boston doesn't get super great picks, and well, I am not convinced on Kessel being the saviour of the Leafs, I heard from a few people that has followed him closely that he is a me first player, team second.

Well, for me personally, I'd like to see them finish 12th just for fun with the Habs finishing 14th. But...beggars can't be choosers I guess.

SpezDispenser wrote:Well, for me personally, I'd like to see them finish 12th just for fun with the Habs finishing 14th. But...beggars can't be choosers I guess.

well for them to finish any higher than 15th, they have to win a game first, one step at a time

It's kind of laughable really. I just read all the previous posters, prognosticating failure of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

They gave up lot for Phil Kessel. There is no question.

But what Kessel gives them is instant respectability. Right now. He is already enhancing their powerplay by leaps and bounds, as evidenced by their powerplay on Saturday night. They were buzzing. Lots of energy, lots of vigour. and Kessel gets his first goal, in a multi-point night.

For those who predict that Boston will get into a position to draft a Hall or a Seguin are grossly mistaken.

That pick will likely only be a top 20 pick at best. I predict Toronto makes the playoffs.

Don't worry, I can hear the jeers from posters right now. But hear me out.

The defence corps is starting to gel together. If you can hold a perrenial Stanley Cup favourite in Detroit to one goal, you are doing your job. The new guys like Beauchemin are figuring out their roles and are starting to act as a team. Schenn is slumping a bit (sophomore slump) but he'll be fine, and Kaberle is having a "career" season so far, with 17 points.

Goaltending. Jonas Gustavsson is starting to play up to the reputation he came in with, the "Monster". He plays well positionally, is square to the puck, and definitely gives Toronto the quality netminder they have been seeking for a number of years. And he's young. Burke will likely sign this guy to a multi-year extension in the $3 million range per year and be the better for it.

I giggle a bit when people take a Dung on Burke's doorstep. His vision is starting to take shape, as he predicted it would.

Don't forget, this is year one of a mini-rebuild. Anyone want to wager that he takes a run at Savard in the offseason? There is a proven 1-2 punch with Kessel. Is that worth overpaying a bit. Yup.

With guys like Stalberg and Bozak ready to shine for this team, the forward corps are not as bad off as expected. Expect Bozak to be a roster player next year for sure.

Jason Blake is ageing, for sure, but he still contributes, and brings that veteran leadership to the dressing room every day. Look at what this guy has lived through, and the constant ridicule he gets. I want him on my team (in fact, I'd love to have him back in my SIM team as well...).

Now Phil Kessel. First of all, he was rumoured to be a non-issue until mid-December, but here he is beginning of November, contributing like he had not missed any time at all. I think he's played 3 games, is already a point per game player. He has revitalized the Maple Leaf powerplay, actually making it dangerous instead of laughable.

Laugh it up prognosticators, until Toronto sneaks up and bites your team on the Donkey

That's a very optimistic view of how the Leafs season will go. As to Kessel being a point a game, it is not the first time a player has come in mid season and lit up the lamp early on. Those same players also go stone cold for long stretches. Missing training camp certainly can't be over-looked. They string together two wins and now they're making the playoffs? Anything's possible I suppose.

Also, for those stats guys. The Leafs need a .612 win percentage in the remainder of their games in order to have a shot at 8th (93 points)

That's a nicely written blog Beedub.

There's no problem with what Burke did. In theory, it should - and still might be the right move. The issue most people have is that the Leafs had no business in making that move at this time. Perhaps in 3 or 4 years they would make a move like this and it would be the addition needed to take them to a Cup, but to try to accelerate the rebuilding process is to lose patience - and to lose patience in a recipe for a 11th place finish year after year. Or better - an 8th - but still way less effective than adding players through the draft who can make your team seriously competitive, then adding that superstar player to put you over the top.

Anytime a 1st rounder is included in a deal these days, the team relinquishing it had better at least be in the mix for a Cup. If not, there's no reason to give it up - unless there's no one in the draft who can help your club. Murray is also guilty of this, but he gave up only one and it was the 26th overall (or something close to that).

With the two 1sts and the 2nd that Burke gave up, he needed to draft all forwards and hope against hope that 2 of them make it - and make it on ELC. Then he can add a player via the trade market - or via free agency. Not when you're on the outside looking in. And if he didn't think the Leafs were a dark horse for a playoff spot, he's an absolute fool - and I personally have a hard time believing that.

I think he got anxious and jumped the gun. But, time will tell of course.

I personally don't think he got impatient. I think what he did was trade a possible top line player in the draft for a real live top line player now.

Today, who would you want. Kessel or Hall.

What is Hall or Seguin going to do for you this year, or even next year, assuming of course that your 1st round pick is entered into the draft lottery?

I'll take Kessel. He is a tremendously resilient player with a tremendous upside, and he's playing right now.

Burke gambled away some of a potential future for right now. Except the right now is young and signed long term. Maybe the 1st round pick in 3 years he'll keep as guys like Kessel and Bozak, Khadri and Stalberg get older and potentially more expensive

beedub wrote:I personally don't think he got impatient. I think what he did was trade a possible top line player in the draft for a real live top line player now.

Today, who would you want. Kessel or Hall.

What is Hall or Seguin going to do for you this year, or even next year, assuming of course that your 1st round pick is entered into the draft lottery?

I'll take Kessel. He is a tremendously resilient player with a tremendous upside, and he's playing right now.

Burke gambled away some of a potential future for right now. Except the right now is young and signed long term. Maybe the 1st round pick in 3 years he'll keep as guys like Kessel and Bozak, Khadri and Stalberg get older and potentially more expensive

I doubt he'll have a choice. If things work out for Burke, he's even more screwed than if they don't. The Leafs can't win a Cup until they have a deep, young, inexpensive team mixed with some vets. That's not happening for a few years - and if it does happen now, Burke will find himself in the same position as Chicago, where they have zero choice but to start trading away talent to stay under the cap. Kessel, Komisarek, Beachemin = 12+ million dollars of a 57 million dollar cap (assuming it doesn't go down). Schenn is coming up for re-neg soon - and you can expect him to get a raise no matter how much he's struggled. Kaberle will be gone - or if he's resigned the Leafs will have that much less to spend - and a heck of a lot fewer picks to utilize.

Again, I agree with the Kessel move in theory, but I think it might end up being detrimental in the long run.

Kaberle > Komisarek and Beauchemin.

Two top 10 picks > Kessel.

Burke is biased to players he has had in his system before as well as American born players.

Too much money on mediocre players. Obviously if you are throwing away your picks you need to build through free agency and that option looks bleak since he has already spent too much on those players he thought would improve the team, but have yet to do so.

Burke could have signed Zherdev, Kessel and Dubinsky for example, for a lot less than he gave up for just Kessel.

Boston was between a rock and a hard place with Phil. There wasn't room to sign him for what he wanted, so Burke could have sucked it up and made an offer, just too much for Boston to consider matching without some overhauling, and kept his 2011 first round pick.

He could have tempted B-Dub out of NY for a little more than what he is now being paid, which is $1.85M.

Zherdev and the Rangers walked-away from each other, losing their top scorer. A very talented player that needs to be a top guy. Could have gotten him for nothing.

While we're on the topic of potential mistakes, the Bruins look like Dung right now. Is it a coincidence? It may have more to do with Savard than Kessel, but Kessel would sure look nice in a Bs uniform right now.

I'll give Burke credit, he certainly knows the value of goaltending. Gustavson looks really, really good.