With Hedman and more, what's next for the Lightning?

Mojo wrote:

shabbs wrote:What a mess! Two radically different approaches on which direction to take the team... I'm sure Vinny is loving all this and I'm sure Hedman can't wait to be a Bolt - heh heh. Sad.

It must be so deflating for the players to know that their team is in absolute shambles from top to bottom.

queue Lecavalier wanting to be traded? please don't make Ek right, sheesh

and we used to think melnyk was bad always making comments to the media at least he leaves the decision making to the guys who know what they are doing

Mojo wrote:It's amazing that Bettman has allowed these two clowns and the shady business practices in the current Nashville ownership to happen under his watch, but he consistently shuts the door on Balsilie.

Well, Balsillie can always offer to buy the Bolts and move them to Hamilton...he can call them the Boltsillies.

Excellent decision by the Lightning...maybe Brian Lawton now has a chance to build a winning team again.

I have a feeling Hedman is going to bring stability to the D in Tampa.

Coincidentally, the RDS commentators have been saying exactly that.

Damien Cristodero who covers the Lightning for TampaBay.com, reports on the Niittymaki signing.

Lightning's new backup goaltender Antero Niittymaki insists his hips are "not a problem," and he "never signed " in Russia
Damien Cristodero, LIGHTNING STRIKES/TampaBay.com, July 10, 2009

All things being equal, the Tampa Bay Lightning's signing of Antero (pronounced AHN-teh-roh) Niittymaki, looks like a good deal. Especially for about $600,000. He's an experienced guy who can fill in ably for Mike Smith (25 to 32 games according to GM Brian Lawton).

He also has a good pedigree, having won a silver medal with Finland at the 2006 Olympics, and he has a Calder Cup championship under his belt from 2005 with AHL Philadelphia.

He also was pretty good last season for the Flyers, going 15-8-6 in 32 games with a .912 save percentage and a 2.76 goals-against average.

And here is quite the stat: Niittymaki is 13-0-0 in his career against the Thrashers with a 1.78 goals-against average and a .938 save percentage.

What makes things a bit unequal are Niittymaki's hips, which have undergone three surgeries. He had surgery in May 2006 for a torn labrum in his right hip, surgery in April 2007 for a torn labrum in his left hip, and surgery in September 2008 on his left hip, a procedure Niittymaki characterized as a "clean-up." Though he missed training camp, he came off the bench to play in the Flyers Oct. 11 opener.

"I know there's a lot of talk about my hip," Niittymaki said from Finland. "I mean, it's good. I'm not going to lie to anybody. It's not like a normal, healthy hip, but it's as good as it can be. The doctor says it will be fine many years from now, and I'll be able to play many years from now. So, I don't think it's a problem. I feel 100 percent right now."

"In depth," GM Brian Lawton said when asked how extensively the team looked into Niittymaki's medical history. "The trainers have looked through the file. (Head medical trainer) Tommy Mulligan has been involved. There's no guarantees, but we feel very confident."

Niittymaki, 29, sounded confident, too. He said he could play 50 or 60 games, "And the hip is not going to be a problem."

Lawton, though, sees Niittymaki playing between 25 to 32. That would give Smith 57 games at most. After playing 41 last season and not skating since Jan. 30 because of post-concussion syndrome, Lawton said he believes that is a good number. He also stressed that Smith is "100 percent" and "the starter, so don't read anything in to this that way."

As for the Internet report that Niittymaki had signed with a team in Russia's Kontinental Hockey League (reports that never came with attribution or an official announcement, by the way), Niittymaki said they were wrong.

"I don't know who put out those rumors," he said. "I never signed. There was a lot of interest from Russian team, and that was pretty much it. I never signed anything, and I don't know how it came out that way. My first thing was always to look for a job in the NHL."

"He did not sign anything," Lawton said. "That question was asked to him and every member of their legal team."

---

Follow the Lightning through the season with beat writer Damian Cristodero and the Times sports staff. We invite your participation in the comments area.
E-mail Damian Cristodero:
cristodero@sptimes.com

davetherave wrote:Excellent decision by the Lightning...maybe Brian Lawton now has a chance to build a winning team again.

I have a feeling Hedman is going to bring stability to the D in Tampa.

Coincidentally, the RDS commentators have been saying exactly that.

Are you expecting a kid too young to drink, who had never played in NA, let alone the NHL, to step in and stabilize their D? No, seriously? He needs a mentor and you are thinking of slapping an 'A' on his jersey? And we have no idea how Foster will come back from that horrible injury.

However Ohlund would be a good vet to help Hedman to adjust to the North American game. I'm looking forward to seeing him play (and play against Karlsson ) but I think it's a little early to expect him to stabilize a team's defense.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:Excellent decision by the Lightning...maybe Brian Lawton now has a chance to build a winning team again.

I have a feeling Hedman is going to bring stability to the D in Tampa.

Coincidentally, the RDS commentators have been saying exactly that.

Are you expecting a kid too young to drink, who had never played in NA, let alone the NHL, to step in and stabilize their D? No, seriously? He needs a mentor and you are thinking of slapping an 'A' on his jersey? And we have no idea how Foster will come back from that horrible injury.

However Ohlund would be a good vet to help Hedman to adjust to the North American game. I'm looking forward to seeing him play (and play against Karlsson ) but I think it's a little early to expect him to stabilize a team's defense.

Yes, IMHO Hedman, with his exceptional and very evident talent, and an apparent emotional maturity, will stabilize the Bolts' D.

And with Ohlund there, we might even see some real improvement.


PS Prager> who said anything about slapping an 'A' on his jersey?

I didn't mean that you were literally suggesting to give him an 'A'; but you were expecting him -- not even 19 until December -- to assume a leadership role of stabilizing the D. That's close enough to a figurative 'A'.

wprager wrote:I didn't mean that you were literally suggesting to give him an 'A'; but you were expecting him -- not even 19 until December -- to assume a leadership role of stabilizing the D. That's close enough to a figurative 'A'.

Ah so, Prager-san, you have your intellectual Ginsu knife out tonight...attempting to slice this so fine one can see through it.

Your question has also evolved as you massage the subject.

Which is now, as I understand it, translated from Pragerese:

"Do you believe 18-year old number two overall draft pick, towering Swedish defenseman and WJC competitor Victor Hedman can, though just shy of 19 years old, bring his leadership by example to one of last year's most dysfunctional teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning?"

The answer is, 'Yes'.

But after all, it's just my opinion as a hockey fan, based on an admittedly brief look at young Hedman both on the ice and in his post draft interview. And my opinion is worth no more than yours.

Alles klar, mein Kommissar?

ESPN INSIDER's new series, 'Summer Skate', does a breakdown on improvements and issues for each NHL team. Teaming up with PuckProspectus.com, they attempt to present a statistically-supported trend analysis as well, which they call VUKOTA.

Here's what they say about the Bolts:

Summer Skate -- Tampa Bay Lightning

NEW FACES MAKE BLUE LINE A DIFFERENT PLACE

EJ Hradek, Richard Pollock, ESPN INSIDER, July 28, 2009



Last season can only be considered a nightmare for those in and around the Lightning organization. So, as the team moves forward into 2009-10, it's pretty likely only positive steps can be made. The Bolts did well to add Victor Hedman at the draft and Mattias Ohlund via free agency, but a return to form from some of its current players may be the key to a turnaround in the Bay. And one of the team's former signings seems ready to step up.

Trending up: D Andrej Meszaros
Last season: +2.2 GVT | VUKOTA projection: +5.7 GVT

One of the Lightning's best signings from last offseason ended up having a difficult first year in Florida that eventually ended in injury. With a tough first season in Tampa now behind him, Meszaros can focus his attention on reverting back to his fine Ottawa form. In fact, VUKOTA has Meszaros' GVT jumping 2½ goals in 2009-10. The system has Meszaros scoring 10 more points than last season, as well as playing 10 more games. These projections seem quite reasonable, considering the former Senators defenseman is a great skater, can move the puck from his own zone and can contribute on the power play.

Trending down: G Mike Smith
Last season: +11.8 GVT | VUKOTA projection: +4.9 GVT

After posting a very good GVT last season for Tampa Bay, VUKOTA has Smith coming back to earth in 2009-10. Maybe more concerning is the fact that VUKOTA has Smith playing only 42 games for the Bolts. Even with his less-than-inspiring projection for next season, Smith's concussion issues are said to be a thing of the past. So, if he can keep his head on straight (pun intended), the netminder's talent and the improved defense in front of him may actually allow him to avoid such a steep decline.

E.J.'s name to know: Victor Hedman

There are some good things that come from being bad. In Tampa, the highly touted Hedman is one of those good things.
In the long term, the second overall pick in the 2009 draft projects as a cornerstone defender who'll spend significant minutes working against top Southeast Division snipers like Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk and Eric Staal. In the short term, the 18-year-old Hedman must find his way at a position that can be tough on youngsters -- no matter how talented.

Lightning management, looking to support its kid star and upgrade its defense, made several interesting offseason moves. The biggest came on July 1 when the club made a quick free-agent strike, signing another Swedish defender, ex-Canucks star Mattias Ohlund, who'll likely serve as a mentor for Hedman. Later, the Lightning signed scrappy ex-Chicago D Matt Walker, who'll be quick to stand up for his young teammate.

Meanwhile, the club appears to be on the verge of yet another move that would benefit Hedman. Several published reports indicate the Bolts are close to hiring longtime Stars assistant coach Rick Wilson to serve in a similar role in Tampa. Wilson did a terrific job developing multiple young defensemen during his nearly two decades in Dallas. Wilson would be a big help for the 6-foot-6, 220-pound Hedman, who'll no doubt have some growing pains adjusting to life in the NHL.


Richard Pollock is a writer for Puck Prospectus. E.J. Hradek is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.


Note: A mainstay of Puck Prospectus' metrics is "Goals Versus Threshold" (GVT). The stat blends an array of offensive and defensive figures to measure the value, in terms of goals, a player contributes above what a marginal player would over the course of the season. A marginal player is one that could be replaced with a player of equivalent skill, e.g., from the minors. For instance, Evgeni Malkin had an offensive GVT of +18.9, a defensive GVT of plus-4.5 and a total GVT of plus-23.4 for the 2008-9 regular season, meaning that Malkin was worth 23.4 goals more than a marginal player over the course of the season, or worth about 0.3 additional goals per game. In the team context, GVT refers to performance above an NHL average team. For the regular season, the Detroit Red Wings had a plus-30.8 offensive GVT, a plus-15.1 defensive GVT and a minus-21.5 goaltending GVT for a plus-24.4 total GVT. Therefore, at even strength, Detroit was 24.4 goals better than the average team.

VUKOTA: Keeping readers one step ahead of the competition, Puck Prospectus has developed a tool called VUKOTA.

Following in the tradition of PECOTA and KUBIAK, VUKOTA is Puck Prospectus' player projection system. Using a combination of fundamental and advanced statistics, VUKOTA compares current NHL players to comparable players throughout history to best project their next season's performance in goals, assists and points as well as GVT.