2009 STANLEY CUP PLAYOFFS: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS VS. DETROIT RED WINGS

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here...and here's the view from Sports Illustrated:

Not winging it: Pens better prepared for finals

PITTSBURGH (SPORTS ILLUSTRATED/AP) -- Gretzky, Crosby. Messier, Malkin. Oilers, Penguins?

The 1983 Edmonton Oilers, led by the youthful Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier, were widely hailed as hockey's team of the future. Cast against the three-time defending champion New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup finals, they looked inexperienced and overmatched in the first two games and wound up being swept.

A year later, a transition from old to new took place as Gretzky and Messier led the Oilers to a Stanley Cup in a rematch against the aging Islanders, ending one lengthy reign atop the NHL and beginning another.

The Pittsburgh Penguins, led by Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, are the first team since those Oilers to return to the Stanley Cup finals a season after losing in them. And they're eager to find out if they're ready to make a similar breakthrough, especially now that they're playing the veteran, skillful team that eliminated them last season.

Even before returning champion Detroit beat Chicago 2-1 in overtime of a decisive Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on Wednesday night, the Eastern Conference champion Penguins were talking as if the first finals rematch since Oilers-Isladers in '84 was inevitable. Detroit has won four Stanley Cups since 1997.

The finals start Saturday night in Detroit, nearly a week ahead of schedule because of the quick conclusion of the conference finals. Game 2 is Sunday in Detroit before the finals shift to Pittsburgh for Game 3 on Tuesday and Game 4 on Thursday.

"They're the champs, and they'll be a big challenge for us," forward Miroslav Satan said.

If so, the Penguins believe they'll be much better prepared than they were in 2008, when the Red Wings overwhelmed them in the first two games in Detroit and went on to win in six games. Then, as defenseman Brooks Orpik said, "We didn't know what to expect, it all happened so quick, and we were down 2-0 before we knew it."

Or much like the Carolina Hurricanes were before being swept in the Eastern Conference finals by the Penguins, who closed them out by winning 4-1 in Game 4 on Tuesday night. The Penguins are 8-1 in the conference finals the past two seasons, losing only once to Philadelphia last spring.

There were numerous signs in the series against the dead-tired 'Canes that the Penguins are likely to be much more of a challenge to Detroit in these finals, beginning with goalie Marc-Andre Fleury -- their best player Tuesday with 30 saves.

Crosby (2 goals, 5 assists in the series) and Malkin (6 goals, 3 assists) are playing like big stars are supposed to play when titles are decided. They already have more points (56, or 28 each) than the 49 they had in four rounds last year, when a visibly tired Malkin was held to two goals in his final 10 games and Crosby had two in his final nine.

The main difference in these Penguins from a year ago is the lack of a Marian Hossa, a top-line winger who can play alongside Crosby and take over a game, yet 38-year-old Bill Guerin (7 goals, 7 assists in the playoffs) has a goal in four of his last six games.

Hossa defected from the Penguins to the Red Wings after last year's finals, and now finds himself playing for a championship against the team he spurned.

That the Penguins are the first team since those '84 Oilers to return to the finals after losing in them the previous season isn't a total surprise to the 21-year-old Crosby, who has been compared to Gretzky since he was a pre-teen. Crosby and Malkin also are being linked to Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, who led the Penguins' 1991-92 Stanley Cup runs.

To Crosby, no such comparisons are valid until he wins a Stanley Cup.

"They've won cups and, you know, and we've yet to do that," Crosby said. "So we still have some things to prove. It's a compliment, and we'll try to keep playing the same way."

Or the way they have played since mid-February, when former coach Michel Therrien was fired and minor-league coach Dan Bylsma took over. The Penguins are 30-8-4 since then, 12-5 in the playoffs.

Hard to believe these Penguins were in 10th place in the Eastern Conference three months ago, a time span that "seems like another season" to forward Max Talbot.

"It seems so long ago," he said. "But we started playing the right way."
A way that champions play? The Penguins don't know that yet, but Orpik said losing a year ago to a team as powerful as the Red Wings helped teach them what it takes to win.

"We learned a lot ... I think we took a lot away from it," Orpik said. "We didn't know what to expect, but this year is much more of a relaxed feel. This year, we're a lot better prepared for everything."

---

So...who wins?
How many games?
Who will be the standout players?
The sudden unsung heroes?

Here's the schedule...

Wings in 7. I think Pitt will make a series of it and the injuries to the Wings will be a factor... but their depth and the weaker "D" of the Pens will seal the deal for the Wings.

A view of Detroit's chances in the Cup Finals, this from an article in today's The Windsor Star:

Can injured Wings soar against Penguins?

Bob Duff/The Windsor Star, May 28, 2009

DETROIT - Detroit centre Darren Helm had barely rammed the puck into the Chicago Blackhawks' net for a 2-1 Red Wings' overtime win Wednesday and another Western Conference title and almost immediately, thoughts turned toward a rerun.

Make that a rematch.

A Stanley Cup final for the ages, times two.

It's the defending champs versus the heirs to their throne, Sidney Crosby and a determined bunch of Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Wings were able to stop the march of the Penguins a year ago in a compelling six-game final.

Will history repeat itself?

It should, but only if the Wings are at full strength.

The best news for the Penguins isn't who they're playing, but who they might not be playing.

Detroit captain Nicklas Lidstrom missed his second straight game with a mystery ailment, believed to be a lower-body injury, though when Lidstrom was seen walking through the bowels of Joe Louis Arena before Wednesday's game, he wasn't hobbled in the least.

Meanwhile, a foot injury kept Pavel Datsyuk out for a third game, eliminating Hart (Datsyuk) and Norris Trophy finalists (Lidstrom) from Detroit's lineup.

Wings coach Mike Babc0ck is of the belief both could be back in time for Saturday's Cup final opener, but if they aren't, the landscape of this series should tilt toward the Penguins.

Shouldn't it?

If Detroit's absent such talent, isn't it party time for Penguins superstars Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?

Logic suggests such developments would favour Pittsburgh, though the opportunity didn't seem to help the Blackhawks.

Minus Lidstrom, Brett Lebda may have played his finest game as a Wing, assisting on both goals.

"There's a lot of key guys out for us now, but that just shows the character of our team, the way we can dig down deep and get the job done,'' Lebda said.

Without Datsyuk, Helm was remarkable, scoring the winner, but also killing a second-period Detroit penalty by making the puck his personal plaything for the majority of the short-handed spell.

This never-ending supply of talent left the Blackhawks shaking their heads.

"They've got a lot of speed, a lot of skill and a lot of depth,'' Chicago defenceman Duncan Keith said. ``You look at a guy like Darren Helm. He played in the minors all year and he was probably their best player (Wednesday).''

As top Red Wings players kept falling by the wayside - defenceman Jonathan Ericsson was the latest, rushed to hospital Wednesday afternoon for an emergency appendectomy - this series took on the resemblance of a schoolyard competition where one side is significantly better than the other.

Yet no matter how many Detroit players were removed from the mix, things never evened up.

It remains advantage Detroit.

The question today is how much did the Penguins learn from the resilient, determined Wings a year ago?

We'll find out soon enough.

Fleury has to stand on his head to give the Waddlers a chance. I think Osgood has to be the most underrated goalie in the past decade.

I think the Wings are playing even tougher than last year and will take the most rash predicition - Wings in 4.

The always entertaining John Buccigross of ESPN offers his analysis:

10 factors lead to my Cup winner

John Buccigross/ESPN.com. May 28, 2009

Every man and woman on the Red Wings' or Penguins' payroll -- from checking winger to Zamboni driver, as well as their dependents -- believes his or her team will win the Stanley Cup. After all this time and travel, sweat and media releases, stressing, praying and morning skates, letting yourself think anything else this deep into the game would be masochistic.

You have to believe. You have no other choice.

Momentum built on results is very intoxicating; for some, it's numbing. That numbness can lead to mental lapses and improper amounts of desperation. At this stage of the game, one has to have a little humility and an awareness of self in order to plan and confront the enemy.

The Red Wings won't fall into that trap because they are champions. They have a relentlessly driving coach; they are so beat up, they will have to think their way through every shift of the game; they are 12-4 in the postseason so far.

The Penguins are 12-5 (last season, they were 12-2 through three rounds) and have won eight of their past nine playoff games and outscored their opponents 42-24. They have 35 or more shots on goal in nine of their 17 playoff games. The Wings have 35 or more shots in 11 of their 16 games.

The Penguins' confidence is probably sky-high because they are young and appear to be the healthier team.

And the Stanley Cup schedule favors youth and health.

Games 1 and 2 are on back-to-back days to appease an American television network that doesn't pay a rights fee. The first four games of the series will be over six days and the first five over eight days. Five games in eight days. That favors the young and healthy.

Will the Red Wings resemble the Hurricanes in terms of energy? Possibly. But they can overcome that because, well, they are more talented than Carolina and they have high-IQ players, collectively higher than any other team in the NHL.

I believe wholeheartedly the following statements are quite possibly absolutely true:

1. When completely healthy, the Red Wings are the best team in the NHL.

2. If you told me the Red Wings would only have the players they had for Game 5 against Chicago, I would tell you they couldn't beat the Penguins.

But the statements above will be moot because the Red Wings will not be completely healthy in the Stanley Cup finals. I would be shocked if Nicklas Lidstrom missed Game 1, but Pavel Datsyuk is a different story. He must have a cracked bone or something in his foot, something you can't just tape up.

The two injuries bring the Red Wings back closer to the Penguins. But if Lidstrom returns and plays all the games at 80 percent or above, Detroit will ice a level of defensemen the Penguins haven't faced yet this postseason. The weakness of the Flyers and Capitals was their defense, and the Hurricanes were absolutely spent after back-to-back seven-game series. The Red Wings can turn defense into offense in a way the Penguins' previous opponents could not.

Here are 10 thoughts that enter my mind as I ponder this series and attempt to forecast who will win:

1. Marc-Andre Fleury has to be the Penguins' third-best player after Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin for them to win. The Penguins will probably get outshot in the majority of the games because a healthy Red Wings team outshoots everyone. I believe Fleury has that in him. He is very athletic and talented. He made 55 saves in the Penguins' Game 5 road win against Detroit in last season's Cup finals. He is clearly one of the top three Canadian goaltenders in the NHL.

2. The Penguins lost the first two games of last season's final 4-0 and 3-0 in Detroit. After those games, both teams went on to win two games apiece and each scored 10 goals. It was an even series after the Penguins were shell-shocked in Games 1 and 2.

3. The Penguins have no one in their lineup like Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen. They are beasts and cause major matchup problems for Pittsburgh's defense. If you are too slow or too small, these Cyborgs will eat your brain for lunch while singing a Five Finger Death Punch medley. Brooks Orpik needs to step up and have a big series. He's been kind of quiet this postseason. The Wings are very good around the offensive net; the Penguins are not. This could define and decide the series.

4. Which brings us to Hossa. The man left Pittsburgh last summer, parting ways with the guys he went to hockey war with just a month after the war ended. He left a lot of money on the table to sign a one-year deal in Detroit to, allegedly, have a better chance to win a Stanley Cup. There are two ways to look at this, and I look at it through my prism.

I get attached to people I like and compete with very quickly. Where I come from, one stays loyal to those bonds. I could never have left Pittsburgh, or any place, to play for the team who beat me and my teammates. That's just me. A loss for Hossa would mean he signed with the wrong team and, one would think, less money on the table this summer because of the falling cap. I suppose one can assume if the Penguins win the series, Hossa will leave Detroit for Pittsburgh this summer because they give him the best chance to win a Cup next season.

People use that logic while gambling on football games, and nobody wins betting on football games.

5. If the Red Wings win the Stanley Cup, I think it will be because of Chris Osgood's play. Thus, he should win the Conn Smythe Trophy. So how can you then keep him out of the Hockey Hall of Fame? As Dr. Evil would say, "I mean, really? Who throws a shoe?"

6. In last season's Game 6, Kris Draper won 15 of 18 faceoffs. The Wings will miss that presence.

7. The Red Wings are not the defensive team they were last season. This past regular season, Detroit gave up 244 goals. When it won the Cup last season, the Wings gave up 184.

8. I've been calling for Malkin and Crosby to shoot more during this postseason, and they are. Clearly, they read this blogumn. Crosby has gone from three shots on goal a game to 3.7. Malkin has gone from 3.5 shots to 4.7. The trend has to continue against Detroit.

Hossa, meanwhile, has to think "attack and shoot," as well. I'm sure he will. He will play the most desperate hockey of his career because of his decision to leave Pittsburgh for Detroit. He can't lose this series. I suspect he will have a big series if he is energized and healthy. Right now, Ruslan Fedotenko has as many playoff goals (six) as Hossa.

9. Red Wings coach Mike Babc0ck will retire with between 600 and 711 coaching wins and be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

10. Penguins in six.

Nice peach fuzz sid!

This series is going to be so much better than last year's edition because of so many extraneous circumstances...Hossa situation...the rematch...the hunger of both teams...Hossa...

PKC wrote:This series is going to be so much better than last year's edition because of so many extraneous circumstances...Hossa situation...the rematch...the hunger of both teams...Hossa...

Don't forget Hossa.

A few questions for those who think Pittsburgh can pull it off:

1. Lidstrom was widely reported to have had a lower body injury, yet numerous reports stated that he was walking and moving around quite comfortably. If you are Holland, with your team up 3-1 going home, do you play your star defenseman? Are you even less likely to play him knowing that winning in 6 instead of 5 gives an extra week or more of rest?
   
2. In the 2008 SCF, Marian Hossa figured in two of three goals Pittsburgh scored in their first win (game 3) and two of four goals in their OT win (game 5). Through the series, Hossa had as many points as Crosby and Malkin combined. He is now playing against his former team, and has been replaced by Guerin? Satan? Can they really make up for the loss of a 1.4PPG player in the SCF, as well as counterbalance his efforts against them?
   
3. Recently, injuries have forced Detroit to dip into their depth pool, yet they kept rolling along. So far, Pittsburgh has been (relatively) unscathed. They have played more games than last year, though, and injuries will eventually arise. Do they have the depth to match?
   

Detroit just dismantled an excellent Blackhawk squad; I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take much longer to do the same with Pittsburgh. Wings in 6 (again).

Acrobat wrote:A few questions for those who think Pittsburgh can pull it off:

1. Lidstrom was widely reported to have had a lower body injury, yet numerous reports stated that he was walking and moving around quite comfortably. If you are Holland, with your team up 3-1 going home, do you play your star defenseman? Are you even less likely to play him knowing that winning in 6 instead of 5 gives an extra week or more of rest?
   
2. In the 2008 SCF, Marian Hossa figured in two of three goals Pittsburgh scored in their first win (game 3) and two of four goals in their OT win (game 5). Through the series, Hossa had as many points as Crosby and Malkin combined. He is now playing against his former team, and has been replaced by Guerin? Satan? Can they really make up for the loss of a 1.4PPG player in the SCF, as well as counterbalance his efforts against them?
   

From ESPN:

Crosby (2 goals, 5 assists in the series) and Malkin (6 goals, 3 assists) are playing like big stars are supposed to play when titles are decided. They already have more points (56, or 28 each) than the 49 they had in four rounds last year, when a visibly tired Malkin was held to two goals in his final 10 games and Crosby had two in his final nine.

The main difference in these Penguins from a year ago is the lack of a Marian Hossa, a top-line winger who can play alongside Crosby and take over a game, yet 38-year-old Bill Guerin (7 goals, 7 assists in the playoffs) has a goal in four of his last six games.

FYI Guerin has more goals and points (7-7-14) than Hossa (6-6-12) to date in the 2009 playoffs (source NHL.com).

Everyone should know by now I'm calling a Penguins win this time around but due to the Pool I won't reveal the number of games just yet.

People talk about how much weaker the Pens are without Hossa but I think this team is stronger this time despite losing Hossa, Malone, Roberts, Laraque and Ruutu.

The big difference this season is getting rid of Therrien and promoting Bylsma. The turn around in their season was incredible once he took over. The Pens were under prepared and out coached last year. With Malkin and Crosby barely showing up on the score sheet in the finals they still made it 6 games.

This season they have a couple Veterans that know how to get the job done in Kunitz and Guerin. They're a more prepared and determined group, they're better coached than last season and Detroit has some wounded players. Lidstrom and Datsyuk may still play but they won't be 100%.

Pittsburgh is better this year and Detroit is still great but I still give the edge to the Pens.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Everyone should know by now I'm calling a Penguins win this time around but due to the Pool I won't reveal the number of games just yet.

People talk about how much weaker the Pens are without Hossa but I think this team is stronger this time despite losing Hossa, Malone, Roberts, Laraque and Ruutu.

The big difference this season is getting rid of Therrien and promoting Bylsma. The turn around in their season was incredible once he took over. The Pens were under prepared and out coached last year. With Malkin and Crosby barely showing up on the score sheet in the finals they still made it 6 games.

This season they have a couple Veterans that know how to get the job done in Kunitz and Guerin. They're a more prepared and determined group, they're better coached than last season and Detroit has some wounded players. Lidstrom and Datsyuk may still play but they won't be 100%.

Pittsburgh is better this year and Detroit is still great but I still give the edge to the Pens.

Losing Laraque and Ruutu is definitely two big plusses. Against a team as disciplined as Detroit those two were, essentially, taking up valuable roster spots from more deserving players.

I don't agre about Roberts. Roberts brought veteran leadership and grit, with a scoring touch to boot. He played a hard game butm, surprisingly, took few penalties (yeah, we all know he got away with murder, but still). I'd say between Guerin and Roberts, it's a wash. Different players, bringing different elements, but on the scoresheet I don't know which one would get you more goals. Guerin probably plays more minutes, but that just takes ice time away from Crosby/Malkin. No clear winner in that one, IMO.

Losing Hossa hurts. I don't care how you slice it, he's as close to elite after Crosby and Malkin as you could get on this team. Kunitz does not replace either his points or his minutes. Kunitz also does not split Lidstrom/Kronwall's ice time from defending Crosby/Malkin like Hossa would have.

On the coaching side, yes, Therrien was likely outcoached by Babcock, but who wouldn't be? As far as playoffs -- and, especially, the Finals -- are concerned, Bylsma is still wet behind the ears.

I give Pittsburgh a slight edge on the top two lines. Detroit has better 3rd and 4th lines.

On defense it's not close, assuming Lidstrom is close to 100% (he was day-to-day in the games he sat out, so with all that rest he's ready to go). Lidstrom, Kronwall, Rafalski, Stuart. Pittsburgh did not have to face Chara, so we don't know how Crosby and, especially, Malkin, will do against Kronwall.

I gave Pittsburgh and edge in goaltending early on, and Fleury has not done anything to diminish my assessment of his play. On the other hand, Osgoode has been money when it counted. Slight edge in talent, perhaps, to Pittsburgh, but Osgoode has experience on his side.

Overall, experience (players and coach) and defense should make this a repeat performance for the Wings.

Intangibles:
The Penguins want to prove to Hossa that he did not choose wisely. On the flip side, Hossa wants to prove just the opposite. Also, he's got his own post-season performances of the past to become, well, the past. And he's in a contract year to boot.

Fleury wants to make a case for himself for Vancouver. Both Luongo and Brodeur have taken a step back this post-season. Fleury went head to head with Ward and won. Adding a Cup Ring to his collection would go a lon way to impressing Yzerman.

As for predictions, you'll have to check my picks in the bracket pool thread once they are in.

This certainly has the potential to be a very exciting SCF. I hope it is.

davetherave wrote:

Acrobat wrote:A few questions for those who think Pittsburgh can pull it off:

1. Lidstrom was widely reported to have had a lower body injury, yet numerous reports stated that he was walking and moving around quite comfortably. If you are Holland, with your team up 3-1 going home, do you play your star defenseman? Are you even less likely to play him knowing that winning in 6 instead of 5 gives an extra week or more of rest?
   
2. In the 2008 SCF, Marian Hossa figured in two of three goals Pittsburgh scored in their first win (game 3) and two of four goals in their OT win (game 5). Through the series, Hossa had as many points as Crosby and Malkin combined. He is now playing against his former team, and has been replaced by Guerin? Satan? Can they really make up for the loss of a 1.4PPG player in the SCF, as well as counterbalance his efforts against them?
   

From ESPN:

Crosby (2 goals, 5 assists in the series) and Malkin (6 goals, 3 assists) are playing like big stars are supposed to play when titles are decided. They already have more points (56, or 28 each) than the 49 they had in four rounds last year, when a visibly tired Malkin was held to two goals in his final 10 games and Crosby had two in his final nine.

The main difference in these Penguins from a year ago is the lack of a Marian Hossa, a top-line winger who can play alongside Crosby and take over a game, yet 38-year-old Bill Guerin (7 goals, 7 assists in the playoffs) has a goal in four of his last six games.

FYI Guerin has more goals and points (7-7-14) than Hossa (6-6-12) to date in the 2009 playoffs (source NHL.com).

And Hossa has played in two more games, averaging 1:10 more ice time per game than Guerin.

However Guerin played against Philly (Biron), Washington (rookie Varlamov) and Ward (exhausted).

Hossa played against Colmbus (rookie of the year, Vezina finalist), Anaheim (some guy who took the #1 away from Giguerre), and Khabibulin (former Cup winning goalie).

If anyone thinks that Guerin has played above expectations, trust me, I'm on that page, too. But if anyone thinks that Guerin has outplayed Hossa, sorry, I don't buy into that just yet.

Looks like the poll is showing strong support for the Pens right now. Interesting because there's not a lot of posts and comments supporting the poll results thus far.