NHL GMs say, 'yes there is an economic crisis'

Cronie wrote:I so hope you're right clutch. But with Fish, Heater and Spezz and Alfie on big contracts coming into that year, something's gonna break...

Well, if you buy into the one of the big 4 is gone theory then we should be just fine. Also there's guys like O'brien and Petersson who could both possibly crack the lineup that year. This could be a good year to be in the youth movement business :D

Edit: Almost forgot that Regin could turn into something special as well.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:With 2010-11 being the year to worry about financially I think it puts Ottawa in a potentially good situation. Foligno and Shannon will hopefully continue to excel and still be cheap options as well as guys like E. Karlsson and Patrick Weircioch coming in on cheap deals. This could work out well for the Sens.

so if the cap is going down for the 2010/11 season, then that must mean next year teams that have a lot of UFA's are going to be trouble, so as per NHL numbers, here are the teams that will have trouble (high number of UFA/RFA players as well as high priced FA's)

Anaheim
Calgary
Dallas
Montreal (YES!!!!!)
NJ (just mildly though)
NYR (ha ha)
Pittsburgh
Vancouver

Cap'n Clutch wrote:With 2010-11 being the year to worry about financially I think it puts Ottawa in a potentially good situation. Foligno and Shannon will hopefully continue to excel and still be cheap options as well as guys like E. Karlsson and Patrick Weircioch coming in on cheap deals. This could work out well for the Sens.

Yeah, not to mention our 1st rounder from this year as well.

Foligno will have to be re-signed the summer before the 10-11 season, but it all works out pretty well for the Sens to be perfectly honest.

504Heater wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:With 2010-11 being the year to worry about financially I think it puts Ottawa in a potentially good situation. Foligno and Shannon will hopefully continue to excel and still be cheap options as well as guys like E. Karlsson and Patrick Weircioch coming in on cheap deals. This could work out well for the Sens.

Yeah, not to mention our 1st rounder from this year as well.

Foligno will have to be re-signed the summer before the 10-11 season, but it all works out pretty well for the Sens to be perfectly honest.

Foligno will also be an RFA without Arb rights if I'm not mistaken so still cheap.

SensFan71 wrote:

Cap'n Clutch wrote:With 2010-11 being the year to worry about financially I think it puts Ottawa in a potentially good situation. Foligno and Shannon will hopefully continue to excel and still be cheap options as well as guys like E. Karlsson and Patrick Weircioch coming in on cheap deals. This could work out well for the Sens.

so if the cap is going down for the 2010/11 season, then that must mean next year teams that have a lot of UFA's are going to be trouble, so as per NHL numbers, here are the teams that will have trouble (high number of UFA/RFA players as well as high priced FA's)

Anaheim
Calgary
Dallas
Montreal (YES!!!!!)
NJ (just mildly though)
NYR (ha ha)
Pittsburgh
Vancouver

Here's a spread sheet done by one of my hockey pals in Winnipeg who may be joining us soon on the forum.

Have a look...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pFHFDcknPFlLtnJ8C3O9tQA&gmrcpt

It's tempting to assume teams that have a lot of UFAs potentially walking are in trouble when in fact the opposite might be true.

The more flexibility you have, the greater the opportunity to re-stock your roster with less expensive players.

If your farm system has a lot of NHL-ready prospects (like Montreal, for example), you're much better positioned--following that line of reasoning--to remain competitive.

In Anaheim--to cite one of the teams listed above--Bob Murray has already started the process towards reshaping the club. Kunitz, Moen, Montador are gone and Pronger may be next.

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Foligno will also be an RFA without Arb rights if I'm not mistaken so still cheap.

Ohhhhh yeah. Good call.

Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

504Heater wrote:Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

Well, Montreal doesn't rely on signing UFAs...they pretty much develop their own talent and pick up 'bargain deals'. Gainey got Kovalev, Tanguay and Lang on the cheap.

I see a team like LA being one that benefits significantly from the current economic landscape.

yes, less and less the average person has 300+ extra bucks for the outing.

davetherave wrote:

504Heater wrote:Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

Well, Montreal doesn't rely on signing UFAs...they pretty much develop their own talent and pick up 'bargain deals'. Gainey got Kovalev, Tanguay and Lang on the cheap.

I see a team like LA being one that benefits significantly from the current economic landscape.

so is it possible we see a contraction of teams, or maybe perhaps some relocation? I am certain the league cannot survive the impending expansion that Ek said was imminent, 2 more teams added, yeah right.

Kind of funny that in the midst of all the economic crises talk Toronto goes and raises ticket prices by 3.5%

SensFan71 wrote:

davetherave wrote:

504Heater wrote:Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

Well, Montreal doesn't rely on signing UFAs...they pretty much develop their own talent and pick up 'bargain deals'. Gainey got Kovalev, Tanguay and Lang on the cheap.

I see a team like LA being one that benefits significantly from the current economic landscape.

so is it possible we see a contraction of teams, or maybe perhaps some relocation? I am certain the league cannot survive the impending expansion that Ek said was imminent, 2 more teams added, yeah right.

OMG, expansion would be such a dire mistake in these times. The league will barely be able to support itself with the 30 existing teams, let alone adding to the nightmare.

If the NHL is bound and determined to have franchises in Las Vegas or Kansas City, let them move one of the doomed existing franchises like Phoenix or New York Islanders

Dash wrote:Kind of funny that in the midst of all the economic crises talk Toronto goes and raises ticket prices by 3.5%

the sad fact Dash, is that there are so many people who want season tickets for the Leafs, that if current holders balk at the price and give them up, there will be 10 corpororations or individuals ready and willing to ante up for them, without batting an eyelash

davetherave wrote:

504Heater wrote:Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

Well, Montreal doesn't rely on signing UFAs...they pretty much develop their own talent and pick up 'bargain deals'. Gainey got Kovalev, Tanguay and Lang on the cheap.

I see a team like LA being one that benefits significantly from the current economic landscape.

Well...in fairness, Tanguay cost a 1st round pick and makes 5+ million. Lang cost a 2nd and makes 4 million. Kovalev is a good deal, but that was a few years ago I think.

SensFan71 wrote:so is it possible we see a contraction of teams, or maybe perhaps some relocation? I am certain the league cannot survive the impending expansion that Ek said was imminent, 2 more teams added, yeah right.

A reduction in player salaries is one of the most logical steps to reducing team liabilities, which also pre-empts the contraction scenario.

IMHO Bettman is moving towards an NBA-style model--remember he worked for the NBA under David Stern for years--whereby the relocation of franchises becomes a viable alternative when teams underperform in a particular geography.

Reduce the operating costs, and buying a franchise becomes more attractive.

In terms of possible expansion, not to give Eklund any credibility, but if money is available from investors who believe an NHL franchise provides a solid return, Bettman would certainly look at it.

This opens the door to Canadian money men like Balsillie, and Calgary's Brett Wilson who has already taken a stake in the Predators.

A market like the Greater Toronto Area has the economic bandwidth to support a second hockey franchise.

If Las Vegas and Kansas City are being discussed, it's because the due diligence has already been done and those metro areas have been validated. In Kansas City's case, an NHL arena is already built.

Contraction is NOT a desirable option from an economic perspective. It reduces the size and scope of the revenue stream, and creates more problems--in everything from cash flow to contractual liability--than it solves.

That does not eliminate the possibility of contraction. But think of it this way: you have a retail chain with 30 stores in thirty different cities. You close a few locations outright. You've reduced your ability to generate cash, but you still have the obligations associated with closing the store.

That, basically, is why relocation is more feasible than contraction.

Again, look at what the NBA (and NFL) have done. Franchises have moved without creating negative impact on these leagues. IMHO Bettman is trying to move in that direction.

504Heater wrote:

davetherave wrote:

504Heater wrote:Unless you're Montreal Dave and no one wants to go and play for you.

Or maybe they benefit from this the most because players won't have a choice.

Well, Montreal doesn't rely on signing UFAs...they pretty much develop their own talent and pick up 'bargain deals'. Gainey got Kovalev, Tanguay and Lang on the cheap.

I see a team like LA being one that benefits significantly from the current economic landscape.

Well...in fairness, Tanguay cost a 1st round pick and makes 5+ million. Lang cost a 2nd and makes 4 million. Kovalev is a good deal, but that was a few years ago I think.

Tanguay and Lang are just one year deals, so they don't impact the Habs payroll beyond a single season. That's another way of getting players 'on the cheap'.

Kovalev came to Montreal for Jozef Balej.

Here's an idea... put another team in T.O. and tax the hell out of both teams, with the tax $ going into the NHL relief fund for teams in trouble.

Dash wrote:Here's an idea... put another team in T.O. and tax the hell out of both teams, with the tax $ going into the NHL relief fund for teams in trouble.

You could quite possibly have a team in Hamilton/Kitchener/Waterloo area.

Hamilton is less than a hour's drive from TO. It takes in the entire Southern Ontario market. The cash flow from that team would definitely augment the revenue pool.

The Hamilton Tigers were an NHL franchise from 1920-25.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Tigers

They had cool jerseys too:
http://hockeysweatermuseum.my100megs.com/teampages/nhlheritage/hamilton.htm