Sens’ Tough Task Just Getting Harder?

SENSHOBO, whose blog appears regularly on Kuklas Korner, is generally a pretty good read about all things Senators. Add to that the Hobo is a Sens fan in Leafs country...

I've posted the latest from SensHobo--remember it was posted just before confirmation of Alfredsson's injury--and look forward to your comments.

http://www.kuklaskorner.com/index.php/sh/comments/sens_tough_task_just_getting_harder/

Sens’ Tough Task Just Getting Harder
by SENShobo on 02/19/09 at 10:43 AM ET

Remember Coach’s Corner a couple weeks back? Don Cherry looked at Vanek taking a Volchenkov shot to the face and in it he saw karma for running up the score and playing top lines during a 10-2 win in Edmonton.

Well, for taking out Buffalo’s top scorer, the Sens may be facing their own new link in this karma chain.

Alfie might be out.

From the Ottawa Sun,

“
It’s a little sore, but it’s not too bad. It’s more the jaw. Hopefully, it will be fine,” said Alfredsson.
“At first, I thought (Heatley) was going to shoot so I took my eyes off it a little bit and then I thought he was going to pass.
“Then, I saw him c0cking his stick and I took my eyes off it a little bit.”

The deflected Heatley shot remains an uncertain fate for Alfredsson, but with Hennessy’s recall, it looks more than possible that Alfie could miss tonight’s game. A matchup at home against fellow Swede Mats Sundin during the hope-driven playoff drive might provide enough motivation to keep the captain in the fold. After all, it was Jason Smith who layed a physical beatdown on the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Finals last season with a pair of separated shoulders (think about that for a moment).

Do you still have hope? The Ottawa Citizen can help fire you up with a good breakdown of reality, although I’m not sure if being reminded that the Sens need to be nearly as hot as they were to start last season in order to make the playoffs is really all that inspiring. There’s enough hope though, that the default display on the Ottawa Senators’ homepage is no longer the schedule, but the standings. 11th place, 13 points out.

But it could happen. Pittsburgh and Carolina need to be leapfrogged, and then one of Buffalo, Florida, New York or Montreal will have to switch places with the Sens.

There’s a pair of games in hand on all of those teams except Florida (1 game in hand) and New York (3). As much as there is desire to win tonight against Vancouver, with the 40 points the Sens are expected to need, the losses the team can’t afford are the ones against those six teams battling with Ottawa. The first of those will come Saturday afternoon in noisy Montreal.

If you’ve lost hope, the Ottawa Citizen still has you covered,

Ultimately, if the miracle push falls short, the Senators will look back at all kinds of killing blows.
- Batches of four-game losing streaks—one in October, one in November and one from Jan. 30-Feb. 2.
- Blame the world juniors: While Team Canada was going for gold in Ottawa, the Senators departed on the road trip from hell—eight games, six regulation losses, one overtime loss, one lonely win; three points of a possible 16.
- Blame the Islanders. Somebody must be beating the New York Islanders or they wouldn’t be anchored in last place in the East, but the Senators haven’t been among those taking advantage of the annual folly on the Island. In a span of 17 days from Nov. 13-29, Ottawa fell three times to the Islanders.

There’s plenty to be frustrated with this past year in Ottawa, but for the last week, every fan should have had some hope rekindled, at the very least been entertained by solid efforts. Tonight, when Elliott is expected to return to the Ottawa net, whether it’s Alfie or Hennessy suiting up, and whether Sundin and Luongo make an impact or not, the team deserves a loud, proud ovation for finally coming together.

If they’re to have any success now, or next season, it has to be about looking forward. What better way to start that renewed focus than to show support for their last seven games, and to show that the past is the past, and it’s time to get it together for the future.

Vancouver will be a really tough test and would have been tough with Alfie. Habs? Not worried. Canes? Again see Habs. SJ? Well lets be honest even with Alfie it's a tough one.

I must say, I'm kind of looking forward to the SJ game. It will go a long way in showing us whether we can play against the best teams and put up a good fight.

IMHO all the games without Alfie will be a major test and benchmark for the Senators.

Since they got hot with Coach Cory, they still haven't made up any points against the current playoff spot-holders...so their ability to play through the captain's absence will show if they can maintain the pace needed to keep their post season ambitions alive.

Considering it took a 4 minute highsticking call to lead to our demise vs. the Bruins as the Crap Sens, I have a lot more faith.

From the Citizen,

Obviously, the Senators would need at least three of the contending teams to falter significantly in order to rise into the top eight, while also maintaining their own ridiculously hot pace. If all of that happened, Clouston would become a candidate for coach of the year and the Senators would have to be considered as a front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.

Okay, so which are these teams?

NYR - Very Possible
MTL - Very Possible
FLA - Getting hot...still possible
BUF - Possible...very streaky team

We have a better chance than some might think. We play all of these teams at least 2 more times if I'm not mistaken.

If things keep going the way they are for us, we can totally make a serious push.

I'm not looking through my rose-colored glasses either.

I'm also not counting on it...just saying.

Oh yeah, and we can totally catch a team like Carolina.

I only see the Rangers and Sabres falling out. The Habs will secure 6th or 7th. We also need the Hurricanes and Pens to fall out of the race. Too many teams to pass.

I am not at all sure about Montreal. That team is imploding worse than the Sens did last year. They did not send Price home, but if he really is partying it up (and those pics from Cancun certainly show that he's capable of being stupid -- smoking 3 cigarettes?) then not only do they lose their top scorer (Lang), best (skill-wise) player (Kovalev), another solid scorer (Tanguay), but their top goalie is curled up in the corner in a fetal position. Figuratively speaking. I think the other teams smell blood and heroics like last night will get harder and harder to come by. They're done.

davetherave wrote:IMHO all the games without Alfie will be a major test and benchmark for the Senators.

Since they got hot with Coach Cory, they still haven't made up any points against the current playoff spot-holders...so their ability to play through the captain's absence will show if they can maintain the pace needed to keep their post season ambitions alive.

The reason is quite simple actually. THe 5th place team is just 2 pts away from the 8th place. Before our winning streak, there was like 8 points difference.
THe interesting part is, if the Rangers and the Habs keep losing, We could sneek somewhere in there.

marakh wrote:The reason is quite simple actually. THe 5th place team is just 2 pts away from the 8th place. Before our winning streak, there was like 8 points difference.
THe interesting part is, if the Rangers and the Habs keep losing, We could sneek somewhere in there.

Not sure I understand the logic here.

The Senators are 13 points away from the last playoff spot (shared by Buffalo and Florida).

They're 14 and 15 points away from Montreal and the Rangers respectively.

If those teams only play .500 hockey (entirely possible) from now until the end of the season, how many games do the Senators have to win to overtake them?

And this is not factoring in Pittsburgh and Carolina who are two and three games over .500 and currently playing .500 hockey. Either one of them improving on that, is not impossible.

Florida and Buffalo are playing strong hockey.

Essentially, at this point these are the six teams are vying for the last four playoff spots.

Any one of them could get hot, and even challenge Philadelphia for fourth.

Conversely, any one of them could hit a slump. As could the Senators.

To put this in perspective, it appears the Senators need to go on a run that--more or less--sees them winning eight out of ten, twice, and four of six, in the next twenty six games.

If Clouston pulls this off, he's Coach of the Year. Hands down.

davetherave wrote:

marakh wrote:The reason is quite simple actually. THe 5th place team is just 2 pts away from the 8th place. Before our winning streak, there was like 8 points difference.
THe interesting part is, if the Rangers and the Habs keep losing, We could sneek somewhere in there.

Not sure I understand the logic here.

The Senators are 13 points away from the last playoff spot (shared by Buffalo and Florida).

They're 14 and 15 points away from Montreal and the Rangers respectively.

If those teams only play .500 hockey (entirely possible) from now until the end of the season, how many games do the Senators have to win to overtake them?

And this is not factoring in Pittsburgh and Carolina who are two and three games over .500 and currently playing .500 hockey. Either one of them improving on that, is not impossible.

Florida and Buffalo are playing strong hockey.

Essentially, at this point these are the six teams are vying for the last four playoff spots.

Any one of them could get hot, and even challenge Philadelphia for fourth.

Conversely, any one of them could hit a slump. As could the Senators.

To put this in perspective, it appears the Senators need to go on a run that--more or less--sees them winning eight out of ten, twice, and four of six, in the next twenty six games.

If Clouston pulls this off, he's Coach of the Year. Hands down.

Yeah for sure, no question... It seems like way too big of a task.. I've seen crazier, but honestly i'm not holding my breathe, I'll be content if they just play competitive hockey for the rest of the year, and show that this season was just a bump in the road...

Cliche time... It is one game at a time. Just keep winning and things take care of themselves. Throw all the other teams out of the picture. If the Sens end up with 94 points they will make it. In order to get 94 points they need 41 points in the next 26 games. That is 41 out of a possible 52.

Translates as follows...

20 wins 4 losses 1 tie minimum or
21 wins 5 losses.

Room for error is zero, mountain is high and steep. It can be done but it is a monumental task. As fans we can hope but we have to expect that it would be a miracle.

davetherave wrote:

marakh wrote:The reason is quite simple actually. THe 5th place team is just 2 pts away from the 8th place. Before our winning streak, there was like 8 points difference.
THe interesting part is, if the Rangers and the Habs keep losing, We could sneek somewhere in there.

Not sure I understand the logic here.

The Senators are 13 points away from the last playoff spot (shared by Buffalo and Florida).

They're 14 and 15 points away from Montreal and the Rangers respectively.

If those teams only play .500 hockey (entirely possible) from now until the end of the season, how many games do the Senators have to win to overtake them?

And this is not factoring in Pittsburgh and Carolina who are two and three games over .500 and currently playing .500 hockey. Either one of them improving on that, is not impossible.

Florida and Buffalo are playing strong hockey.

Essentially, at this point these are the six teams are vying for the last four playoff spots.

Any one of them could get hot, and even challenge Philadelphia for fourth.

Conversely, any one of them could hit a slump. As could the Senators.

To put this in perspective, it appears the Senators need to go on a run that--more or less--sees them winning eight out of ten, twice, and four of six, in the next twenty six games.

If Clouston pulls this off, he's Coach of the Year. Hands down.

Actually I was just explaning why we are still 13 points out of the 8th place. It's because the 5th place didnt change that much in terms of total points, whereas the 8th place went up by many points. THe gap between 5th and 8th has been reduced.

Smash, MOI, well said.

It's also important to remember the Senators face teams that will presumedly be doing everything possible to win.

Let's look at the next five games.

The Canucks, Luongo, Sundin and Kesler are hot.

Gainey has shaken the Habs by the collar, and they played a very solid game vs. the Caps. If Kovalev comes back Saturday (which he apparently will) he'll be out to prove something--big time.

The Canes are always difficult to predict. Cam Ward can be a monster and Joe Corvo often comes up big vs Ottawa.

San Jose...they are the Sharks. If you've watched them play, you know not even a four goal lead (if you can get it) is safe against them.

Toronto is always a battle that has less to do with skill and everything to do with the rivalry.

These games can go either way.

Until the Sens get through this stretch, looking further down the road is dreaming.

March is no picnic either:
http://forecaster.canada.com/faceoff/hockey/schedule.cgi?ott&x_seasonID=34&x_date=200903

As teams discover, taking ANY opponent for granted means you usually end up on the wrong end of the score.

For sure, Coach Clouston isn't dreaming.

Hopefully, neither is Bryan Murray. The March 4 deadline is six games away.

IMHO, if the Senators perform to the best of their ability, fans will be happy. If Murray makes some smart decisions at the deadline, and clears some cap room, they can be well positioned for the June trading/UFA season and the draft.