The Official 2011 Tank Nation thread

rooneypoo wrote:

Good post. People do really need to be realistic; we aren't signing Vokoun or Richards. I posted this in some other thread a couple of weeks ago, but I think realistic signings include Brooks Laich, Zenon Konopka, and Jonathan Ericsson. Not saying they are the right signings, but that's who I think we could be looking at if we really want to bring in some new people. Laich for the skill and leadership abilities (he could be a captain one day, who knows), Konopka for the toughness + face-off ability, and Ericsson to be a bottom-pairing d-man.

rooneypoo wrote:Hmm. I don't want to get blamed for side tracking this thread, too (even though I didn't really start this).

So. Someone make a case why I should be happy with Sean Couturier if we happen to end up with the 4th pick. I've had the debate on Landeskog vs. Nugent-Hopkins now, & I'm assuming that we won't pick Larsson unless all three of the big forwards are gone, so tell me why I should be excited about this kid & how he stacks up against the other two.

PS: the best bang-for-buck scotch is Highland Park. The 12, 15, 18, it doesn't matter (although each is better than the last).

Couturier:
-He's got size you'd love to have at the centre position (already 6'4" and ~200lbs)
-He's well-rounded with high defensive upside
-He's been tremendously productive as a Junior, WJCs excluded: Led the Q with 41 goals, 96 points and +62 in 68 games a year before his draft year (first guy to do that since Sid), and currently has 73 points and +35 in 43 games this year.

If things work out, he probably projects somewhere between Eric and Jordan Staal. There are conflicting opinions on him but that's pretty typical with prospects.

I'd rather have RNH because I think he'll be better offensively, but depending on how Couturier comes along skating-wise (it's not bad, but it's not elite) that could change pretty quickly. He's not that far behind skill-wise.

But I haven't watched a tonne of him outside of the WJCs.

Now, as far as scotch goes, I've been going through a bottle of Aberlour a'bunadh no. 18 that I picked up in Speyside.

I would also take Patrick Eaves back for cheap, but maybe Detroit would want to keep him.

I'll get us started.

First, my assumptions:

-- we're adding at least one goalie
-- we're adding at least one winger
-- we're adding at least one D
-- we're not bringing back any UFAs, with the possible exceptions of Phillips & Shannon
-- we're not a choice destination; that means forget about the biggest of the big FAs (Richards, & honestly probably Vokoun & Bryzgalov)
-- we're moving ahead with no more than two of Gonchar, Phillips, and Kuba
-- one of Cowen or Rundblad makes the team
-- two of Smith, Butler or our 2011 1st round pick make the team

FAs I target, if available, roughly in order of interest:

-- Forwards: Laich, Leino, Fleishmann, possibly Brunette (short deal) or Jokinen
-- D: Montador, O'Donnell, Bieksa, possibly Wisnewski or White (slim pickings! An argument for keeping Phillips in itself)
-- G: very tough. If we assume we miss out on Bryz & Vokoun, then all that's left of interest is Anderson, a big question mark in Harding or Karlsson, ricketty stopgaps like Turco & Nabokov.

My 2011 forwards:

-- Spezza, Alfie, Fisher, Michalek, Foligno, Regin, Neil, Kelly, Winchester, Smith, Butler/1st round pick, one of FA forwards ($27 mil for already signed; about $1.5 mil for Butler & Smith OR as much as $4 for Smith + 1st rounder; and one FA signing in the neighbourhood of $3-4 mil for Laich, Leino, or Flash, or $2-3 mil for Brunette or Jokinen = $31 mil (low end) / $35 mil (high end).
-- I consider seriously shopping Fisher, largely for prospects / picks, but also for steady D presence or goaltending if possible. And then I look for extra FA forward, or give 13th spot to most deserving prospect.

My 2011 D:
-- I sign one of Montador, O'Donnell, or Bieksa ($2-3 mil), probably 2 if I lose Phillips; I re-sign Campoli at about his current rate; I ship out one of Campoli, Lee, Carkner, to create roster space.
-- I explore all options on Kuba, but remain largely resigned to being stuck with him; and I, again, dangle Fisher to shore this position up.
-- two of Gonchar, Phillips, Kuba; Karlsson; 1 or 2 FAs as above; Cowen; Carkner; Campoli ($10 mil already signed; anywhere from $2.5-6 mil on FAs / upgrades via Fisher trade; plus about $3 mil for Cowen & Campoli = at 7 D, I'm looking about about $15 mil)

My goaltending:

-- short-term deal on Anderson ($3-4 mil?) if I have to; otherwise, I'm exploring any & all trade alternatives (again, Fisher is probably the piece I dangle here).
-- a one-year, $1 mil deal for Elliott; last chance.
-- about $4-5 mil on my goaltending.

Overall, I'm spending only about $50-55 mil (I think it likely we won't spend to the cap next year), & I'm thinking I have to work out a trade or two if I really want to address my team's needs. The FA market is not great all around: what we want probably won't come here unless we seriously overpay, & the D options in terms of making up for the loss of Phillips frighten me. Goaltending, the Achilles heel of my organization for so long, I don't see being able to fix this year, not long term, unless through trade. I would move Fisher for Lindback+, but even that seems like a gamble for a team that has gambled so long with this position.

Possible organizations & players to trade with/for, I have to think of more.

Definitely not Richards, too many dynamics for that to fall into place, but Vokoun or Bryzgalov? Hard to say right now...Vokoun probably not because he's long wanted to get back to the playoffs and we're not really a destination for that at the moment.

Bryzgalov is another story IMO. If he hits the market - and I'm still relatively convinced the Yotes will sign him - but if he hits the market, the Sens could easily offer him a monster contract for a shorter term. Say, 6 million a year X 3 years, or even 6.5 X 3. This won't really mess with their cap going forward as the 'old guard' is getting to be just that - old. Alfredsson will be off the cap in 2 years, ditto Fisher, Kuba, Gonchar etc. There's money opening up, so the cap space issue going forward is nice and clear provided you put money in the right places.

What we want to do - as we all know - if get the best team on ice before Rundblad, Cowen, 1st Round Pick, etc. all come off their ELC, so that means over-compensate at the G position for 3-4 years and we can also pay a little more for forwards - presumably as long as their contracts don't run past 3 years.

If I couldn't get Bryz @ 6 X 3 or 4 (sorry, I'm one of those guys who's okay with Lehner taking 2 years in the AHL, then backing up Bryz (or whoever) for the 3rd year, then pushing for the job in 4 years - where he'll only be 23. Spend $$ on goaltending, for God's sake don't go a 'cheap' route and sign a JS Giguere or whatever washed up goalie is coming up on UFA.

Targets:

1.Bryzgalov
2.Vokoun
3.Rinne (if we can't get him this summer, I assume we watch him closely while Lindback starts playing more)
4.Nabokov for 5 million+ for 2 years. No longer - and I'm actually not really that interested.
5.Anderson, but I wouldn't want to commit to more then 2 years, so we're probably out there, plus I'm sure Colorado will retain him.
6.Tim Thomas - pretty outside chance now as Boston would be smart to ride him until his final year, letting Rask back him up - like our plan hypothetically with Lehner backing up Bryz or whoever we get.

Barring that I'd need to see a list of guys who are gonna be available from teams that are trading before I comment, I can't think of any others off the top of my head.



As for the offense, I don't care where it comes from frankly, but we need some skill. If we're lucky Butler will win a spot in the top 6 and our 1st round pick will as well and everyone will be happy, but I wouldn't want to hang my job on that. I'd be scouring the league for a team over the cap who needs to shed. I'd pound on the door of the Flyers for Briere, but he's MVPing it up over there, so I'm not sure they'd be interested in moving him - although, they might not have a choice.

Leino is good though, so is Laich - assuming Butler and 1st Rounder bring the skill level up. Neither to me screams of a player we *need*, but Laich is a hell of a leader (he's not hitting the open market - why would he? Washington needs to re-sign one of the only pure leaders they have).

So are we up the creek for forwards? Give me teams who are looking to shed salary next year and I'll see what they have to offer, but we might just be stuck with what we have + the 1st Roudner - which better be a nice Cussing pick after all this.

Yeah Rooney, we have similar assessments I think. Not sure I'd sign any of the D-men you mentioned. I think we're stuck with Kuba as you suggested - although the league is starting to get filled with 'mulligans' - guys in the minors who can't cut the NHL anymore, so maybe Melnyk will finally bury someone for a year - doubt it though.

Gonchar I would keep for sure. Karlsson, Rundblad, Cowen get indoctrinated in, Campoli would probably be my 6th, Lee/Carkner my 7/8. Not great...at all. Not sure if that's gonna cut it. Not sure if we have a choice though.

shabbs wrote:I have a bad feeling we'll sign Arnott.

Holy Dung, would that ever fall in line with BMs last couple UFA signings. What a disaster that would be.

Big Ev wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

Good post. People do really need to be realistic; we aren't signing Vokoun or Richards. I posted this in some other thread a couple of weeks ago, but I think realistic signings include Brooks Laich, Zenon Konopka, and Jonathan Ericsson. Not saying they are the right signings, but that's who I think we could be looking at if we really want to bring in some new people. Laich for the skill and leadership abilities (he could be a captain one day, who knows), Konopka for the toughness + face-off ability, and Ericsson to be a bottom-pairing d-man.

If we can get Laich at a reasonable price, I'd love to see him playing here.

SpezDispenser wrote:Yeah Rooney, we have similar assessments I think. Not sure I'd sign any of the D-men you mentioned. I think we're stuck with Kuba as you suggested - although the league is starting to get filled with 'mulligans' - guys in the minors who can't cut the NHL anymore, so maybe Melnyk will finally bury someone for a year - doubt it though.

Gonchar I would keep for sure. Karlsson, Rundblad, Cowen get indoctrinated in, Campoli would probably be my 6th, Lee/Carkner my 7/8. Not great...at all. Not sure if that's gonna cut it. Not sure if we have a choice though.

If you move Phillips, you absolutely need a presence like Montador or O'Donnell back there.

I'm not very sanguine on the possibility of signing Bryz, but I agree we could toss a lot of money his way if that's what he was looking for primarily.

Briere is one good possible candidate. I need to do some more thinking on the trade front -- in terms of what teams might be up against the cap & looking to move bodies. PHI is one for sure.

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:Yeah Rooney, we have similar assessments I think. Not sure I'd sign any of the D-men you mentioned. I think we're stuck with Kuba as you suggested - although the league is starting to get filled with 'mulligans' - guys in the minors who can't cut the NHL anymore, so maybe Melnyk will finally bury someone for a year - doubt it though.

Gonchar I would keep for sure. Karlsson, Rundblad, Cowen get indoctrinated in, Campoli would probably be my 6th, Lee/Carkner my 7/8. Not great...at all. Not sure if that's gonna cut it. Not sure if we have a choice though.

If you move Phillips, you absolutely need a presence like Montador or O'Donnell back there.

That would be my choice to replace Phillips in that scenario.

rooneypoo wrote:
I'm not very sanguine on the possibility of signing Bryz, but I agree we could toss a lot of money his way if that's what he was looking for primarily.

I honestly think he can be had for a reasonable price. By reasonable, I'm thinking $5-5.5M.

rooneypoo wrote:
Briere is one good possible candidate. I need to do some more thinking on the trade front -- in terms of what teams might be up against the cap & looking to move bodies. PHI is one for sure.

Maybe I'd feel differently (slightly) if he was on my team, but Briere is a cheap piece of Dung. Good hockey player, but he's a little weasel. I recognize that that's not a useful consideration if team success is the singular goal, but I can't stand the little Diddler.

I really like the idea of a Laich or a Leino. Good posts SD and RP.

rooneypoo wrote:
If you move Phillips, you absolutely need a presence like Montador or O'Donnell back there.

I'm not very sanguine on the possibility of signing Bryz, but I agree we could toss a lot of money his way if that's what he was looking for primarily.

Briere is one good possible candidate. I need to do some more thinking on the trade front -- in terms of what teams might be up against the cap & looking to move bodies. PHI is one for sure.

Yeah, I guess. So desperately need to shed Kuba's salary...

EDIT: The more I think about it...this poor SOB was injured since March of last year of whenever it was he had the back surgery, rehabs, gets back on the ice and breaks his ankle, doesn't play until about game 30 or whatever and is expected to right a sinking ship without missing a beat. His confidence is probably crushed, but he's a vet who Torts speaks very highly about - perhaps he rehabs some more this summer and comes back next year as a very solid veteran presence and we all marvel at how we could have lost him for nothing in a trade.

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:Yeah Rooney, we have similar assessments I think. Not sure I'd sign any of the D-men you mentioned. I think we're stuck with Kuba as you suggested - although the league is starting to get filled with 'mulligans' - guys in the minors who can't cut the NHL anymore, so maybe Melnyk will finally bury someone for a year - doubt it though.

Gonchar I would keep for sure. Karlsson, Rundblad, Cowen get indoctrinated in, Campoli would probably be my 6th, Lee/Carkner my 7/8. Not great...at all. Not sure if that's gonna cut it. Not sure if we have a choice though.

If you move Phillips, you absolutely need a presence like Montador or O'Donnell back there.

I'm not very sanguine on the possibility of signing Bryz, but I agree we could toss a lot of money his way if that's what he was looking for primarily.

Briere is one good possible candidate. I need to do some more thinking on the trade front -- in terms of what teams might be up against the cap & looking to move bodies. PHI is one for sure.

Montador, maybe. O'Donnell, no way. He'll be 40 years old.

Big Ev wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:Yeah Rooney, we have similar assessments I think. Not sure I'd sign any of the D-men you mentioned. I think we're stuck with Kuba as you suggested - although the league is starting to get filled with 'mulligans' - guys in the minors who can't cut the NHL anymore, so maybe Melnyk will finally bury someone for a year - doubt it though.

Gonchar I would keep for sure. Karlsson, Rundblad, Cowen get indoctrinated in, Campoli would probably be my 6th, Lee/Carkner my 7/8. Not great...at all. Not sure if that's gonna cut it. Not sure if we have a choice though.

If you move Phillips, you absolutely need a presence like Montador or O'Donnell back there.

I'm not very sanguine on the possibility of signing Bryz, but I agree we could toss a lot of money his way if that's what he was looking for primarily.

Briere is one good possible candidate. I need to do some more thinking on the trade front -- in terms of what teams might be up against the cap & looking to move bodies. PHI is one for sure.

Montador, maybe. O'Donnell, no way. He'll be 40 years old.

Wow. Didn't realize he was so old. I retract my earlier comment.

A small step forward tonight for Tank Nation. Too bad the Oil didn't win. Would have been nice for them to close in on us.

Not sure this is the correct thread for this, but it doesn't really matter I guess.

To further the point being made by Rooney - and to showcase how difficult this might end up being for the sentimentalist, consider this:

Next year:

Forwards:

Regin (1 more year/1 million) - Spezza (5 years, 7 million) - Alfredsson (2 years, 5.6 million buyout included)
Foligno (1 more year/1.2) - Fisher (2 years, 4.2) - Michalek (3 years, 4.3)
OPENING 1 - Chris Kelly (1 year, 2.1) - Chris Neil (2 years, 2)
OPENING 2 - Winchester (1 year, 0.750) - OPENING 3

Before you get ahead of yourselves with the openings, also consider:

OPENING 1: Bobby Butler will compete heavily for a spot (RFA)
OPENING 2: 1st ROUND PICK will compete heavily for a spot (ELC)
OPENING 3: Z.Smith is an RFA and I assume he'll take the third opening

Defence:

Gonchar (2 years, 5.5) - Karlsson (1 year, 1.3)
Kuba (1 year, 3.7) - OPENING 4
Lee (1 year, 0.875) - Carkner (1 year, 0.700)

OPENING 4: Campoli is an RFA and I assume we'll keep him in the mix.
WAITING: Cowen is looking for a spot
WAITING: Runblad is looking for a spot

*This doesn't included a veteran D-man or the return of Phillips and already we're filled up. And don't just jettison Kuba, it's gonna be real hard to get rid of him.

GOAL:

OPENING 5:
OPENING 6:

OPENING 6: Potentially Elliott will return I imagine. The kid needs a summer to re-focus and a 1 year, 0.800 deal. Although if we moved him, I'd be okay with it.
WAITING: Robin Lehner

END RESULT:


Either not much movement, or some serious decisions to open a roster spot for a new player to come in via trade. After all this, who do you move?

The pipe dream is Fisher, but it's hard to imagine that actually happening. Michalek? Likely not. Alfredsson? No. Spezza? Unlikely. Regin? Would be a waste IMO. Foligno? Possible, but he's cheap and shows signs of putting it together. Kelly? Possible, but would be a shame. Neil? Unlikely. Winchester? Why would you? Z.Smith? See Winchester.

So, does Butler spend another year in the AHL to make some room for a player addition? Perhaps, after all, it's the Detroit model of taking your time with prospects.

Does the 1st round pick perhaps not play in the NHL next year? Possible, but I think I'd toss him in there as soon as possible.

Where is the roster space coming from? Who are the tough choices made?

I'm not sure any goalie would make us a contender with that defence lol. Gonchar's not playing like a top pairing defenceman. Karlsson is good, but he's still got a long way to go. Kuba is awful, and Lee/Carkner are good 3rd pairing guys. Campoli's a decent 2nd pairing guy.

Dash wrote:I'm not sure any goalie would make us a contender with that defence lol. Gonchar's not playing like a top pairing defenceman. Karlsson is good, but he's still got a long way to go. Kuba is awful, and Lee/Carkner are good 3rd pairing guys. Campoli's a decent 2nd pairing guy.

That's why I put it out there. What exactly are we doing with this team? If moves are coming, who's going?

Dash wrote:I'm not sure any goalie would make us a contender with that defence lol. Gonchar's not playing like a top pairing defenceman. Karlsson is good, but he's still got a long way to go. Kuba is awful, and Lee/Carkner are good 3rd pairing guys. Campoli's a decent 2nd pairing guy.

That's why I put it out there. What exactly are we doing with this team? If moves are coming, who's going?

SpezDispenser wrote:

Dash wrote:I'm not sure any goalie would make us a contender with that defence lol. Gonchar's not playing like a top pairing defenceman. Karlsson is good, but he's still got a long way to go. Kuba is awful, and Lee/Carkner are good 3rd pairing guys. Campoli's a decent 2nd pairing guy.

That's why I put it out there. What exactly are we doing with this team? If moves are coming, who's going?

I appreciate that you posted what you did, to make fans realize what this team looks like on paper next year.

Going to be VERY hard to move some players if Sens wanted to. I would take a line-up of rookies over a bunch of overpaid, under-performing players like Kuba and Gonchar.

Would love to get Rundblad and Cowen in the line-up.

Team still needs an elite goaltender, and I would go after Vokoun as a mentor to Lehner. Other than getting the goalie we have always needed, I wouldn't go out and over-spend on any other UFAs. As long as Fisher is on this team, you have to use him as your 2nd line C. Spezza's your #1, so we have no room for a real 2nd line C. And if you are going to give Butler a job, you need to give him a top 6 position. I think alfredsson could use a demotion to limit his ice time. Use him as a 3rd liner and a PP guy.

Smith deserves a full time position.

So my #1 line would be: Foligno-Spezza-Butler

After that I have no idea.