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What has happened to the Ottawa Senators post Cup run?

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Cap'n Clutch

Cap'n Clutch
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I know this is a big question right? The thing is we've picked apart specific players, we've defended and attacked the coaching staff and the GM and it all boils down to that one big question which has been there since the 07/08 season.

Is it a player or a group of players that is the issue? This team has been far too streaky for too long and somethin's gotta give or the Sens will wallow in mediocrity or worse for years to come. Is it really just a matter of not having Sutton and Volchenkov for toughness on the back end? I doubt it since our streaky play was there with those two as well.

Is it the coach? Is his message not getting through? Is it the wrong message? Some of Clouston's decisions have been real head scratchers. For example his decision to put Karlsson and Gonchar on their wrong sides and not to have a player like Neil for net presence on the Power play.

Is it the GM? Is Gonchar really that bad all of the sudden? Did Regin just get lucky at the end of last season, in the playoffs and world championships? Did Foligno just Bochenski his way through pre-season? Is Karlsson regressing? Alfie, Michalek, Fisher and perhaps Kovalev are all playing through various ailments so that could be a huge part as well. How can they work on drills in practice if 4 to 5 guys are regularly not there for them? Is THAT the GMs fault. Is it blind dumb luck? Is it coincidence that Randy Lee moves out of the Team Trainer position and we get hit by injury after injury?

My answer? I think it's unfortunately a combination of things.

Coach - It's either a poor plan or system or an inability or unwillingness of the players to execute that plan. Issues here are that the players playing hurt aren't able to improve on this and in game they're not at 100% so they can't execute at a high enough level. This equals guys like Winchester, Foligno, Shannon, Kelly getting the bulk of the goals lately. It is also possible that the players have tuned him out. I wonder about the coaching simply because of the streaks this team goes on and it's been happening far too long for it to be chalked up to injuries. Somewhere in that is at least part of the puzzle.

GM - The players he was able to bring in don't seem to be the right mix. We can give him a bit of a pass on the guys playing through injury since that's not really his fault but on the back end he brought in skill in Gonchar and let the experienced toughness and shot blocking go without a viable alternative. He at least has done a fabulous job bringing in enough high end prospect D men that even if only a couple turn out to be top 4 we're in excellent shape in about 5 years. He also brought in a potential star goalie in Lehner. There is still a serious deficit in terms of offensive forward prospects to get excited about though and that clearly needs to be addressed. We have too many Zack Smiths and Jim O'Briens and not enough....I'd put a name here but there really isn't anyone I'd consider to be a potentially top 3 forward.

The Players - The easy first answer is the guys playing hurt aren't helping and ideally they should rest. They're not helping us win so sit out. They can't do worse than lose right? The problem is even if one of them sits out do we have a better chance of turning this around? Does calling up Butler, Smith, Hale and company really give us a better chance? Karlsson, at least I hope, is going through a softmore slump as is Regin and Foligno is taking longer to develop than some people thought. It was nice to see Foligno score on the PP vs. the Habs and I hope that is a sign of more to come. Phillips and Gonchar look lost and that experiment has failed miserably. Kuba gets a bit of a pass since he missed all of training camp and a big chunk of the start of the season which cannot be underestimated. This could be an issue for Kuba for most of the season. Kuba's struggles could be contributing to Karlsson's drop off as well. I have had little to no issue with Ruutu, Kelly, Neil, Winchester, Shannon, Elliott and even Leclaire as they are doing their part. It would be nice to see Ruutu draw a few more penalties but other than that I've been pleased with those players. Spezza, despite cutting down on his turnovers, being top 11 in faceoffs and adding PK to his repertoire; If he wants to be the go to guy who can carry a team he needs to score more and do it at key times even under these kinds of circumstances. That setup play for Foligno was a thing of beauty though and that was indeed a key point in the game. Too bad the momentum didn't carry further than a fart in the wind.

OR I could be totally wrong and we go on an amazing run, find some consistency, a trade happens that puts us over the top and our young guys catch fire.

What do you all think?


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LeCaptain

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:12 am by LeCaptain

It's pretty simple to be honest. We're slow. League got faster, and in 6 years we got nothing from the farm to replace the core players regressing.

Cap'n Clutch

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:18 am by Cap'n Clutch

Regin, Elliott, Foligno, Karlsson is nothing from the farm in 6 years? Are we really that slow?

Cap'n Clutch wrote:Regin, Elliott, Foligno, Karlsson is nothing from the farm in 6 years? Are we really that slow?

Michalek is slower now than Spezza. Now, Spezza *has* improved in that respect, but Michalek used to have blinding speed.

Karlsson used to be (I thought) the 2nd fastest on the team, if not the fastest. He's slowed down considerably, perhaps because of adding a few pounds in off-season training. He's improved since the start of the season but is still not where he used to be.

Alfie is playing injured, as is Fisher.

Kuba has been an anchor on our blue-line for two seasons now. But not in the good way. Facepalm

Phillips has shown signs but is still not playing anywhere near the level we expected. And he was never that fast to begin. Carkner is as fast as Phillips but his decision making puts him in bad positions too often and, unlike Karlsson, he does not have the speed to make up for it.

Ruutu, Neil, Foligno, Regin have never been known for their speed.

Shannon and Kelly may now be our fastest skaters. Neither one of them plays anywhere near 1st line.

Best thing to do now (IMO) is to sit out Fisher and Alfredsson, and send Kuba down to Bingo for at least a week. Bring up O'Brien to replace Fisher and put Regin in Alfie's roster spot. Lee replaces Kuba and also balances our L/R -- just don't put Lee with Karlsson. I'd put Lee with Phillips, Gonchar with Karlsson and keep Campoli/Carkner together. Play then all as 2A/2B/2C pairings with almost equal ice time.

And if that doesn't work, there's always the draft.

Cap'n Clutch

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:47 am by Cap'n Clutch

Michalek is clearly not 100% and I'm not talking this season in isolation. This has been going on a long time. The Sens have been streaky since Paddock took over. They started that season so ridiculously well that they barely hung onto a playoff spot, then came Hartsburgh who failed miserably. Along come Clouston and the streaky Sens remain even under him. What's been going on during the 07/08 season - Is it all Paddock's fault for that year? 08/09 - Hartsburghs fault? 09/10 - Blame it on late season injuries to key guys? Not playing Leclaire soon enough in the playoffs? 10/11? It's injuries and Karlsson putting on weight?

A bunch of things:

- Age is catching up to Alfie, he shouldn't even be on the 1st line, let him play on the 2nd line and not have to face the top checking line. Reduce his ice time and save his energy for the PP where he can still be effective.

- Team isn't good / fast enough to execute CC's plan (aggressive forecheck).

- Michalek has not recovered from knee surgery, he may never be the same

- Regin and Foligno were expected to bring it this year and have not

- some sloppy defence has left our goalies out to dry, lack of chemistry on the D-pairings

Most importantly this team's confidence is ridiculously fragile. They go down a goal or two and they fall apart mentally. They play much better if they have a lead.

I'm not really sure there is anything that can be done this year, need an overhaul in the offseason, hopefully a high 1st round pick for our suffering will be put to good use.

Cap'n Clutch

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:09 am by Cap'n Clutch

I'm seeing some partial explanations for this season but what has happened previously? What was last season's problem? How do you explain the streaks?

They've had a few games in November where they scored first and then ended up losing. Confidence is bad, yes, but they can lose it even when they have a lead.

Streaks because of streaky players" Michalek, Fisher, Kovalev are notoriously streaky, and that's half your top-six.

Riprock

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:06 am by Riprock

The reason the guys you mentioned (Winchester, Foligno, Kelly, Shannon) have been scoring is because they are hard working players. seems like everyone else is giving up.

Alfredsson, bless his soul, is not in his prime and years of hockey, 11 playoff runs, Olympics, World Championships, and injuries have caught up with him.

Spezza's still our best player. He's improved so much and only can do so much. He tries a lot, sometimes too much, but he cannot be faulted for trying to make things happen.

Ottawa had to get really lucky when it came to drafting, since they picked primarily in the 20s for 11 years. And they traded pick after pick for rental players. That was a huge problem too.

They rarely ever made all-around moves that improved the entire team - they would bring in FA forwards and neglect defence and goal-tending. When they addressed goal-tending, other areas were affected. When they addressed defence, forwards were neglected.

As excited as we were to land Gonchar, perhaps we must take a look at why he was let go of in the first place. Perhaps it is becoming clear now.

Volchenkov's been a Senator for life until this year, and he is missed obviously. I'm not going to cry about that because the money was just too much for a defensive dman.

Chris Phillips is perhaps showing the real Phillips. It is possible he only looked good by association? His hockey play is not worth $3M+.

Sens need to sell - all UFAs must be traded for picks/prospects.

Foligno should not be traded - he is too young. Sens made a mistake trading a young, unproven player named Brooks Laich. You never give up on a unproven player.

People are talking about this off-season and going after Semin and Vokoun. The money will be there, but is it the right moves to make? Vokoun's been the best goalie for the past many years. Semin is a legitmate scoring threat.

Riprock

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:10 am by Riprock

Oh, and do I need to even bring up the horrible deal we got for Heatley?

Come on Murray, you traded the best player on your team and a top 5 goal scorer in the league for a guy with near career ending injuries and an overpaid AHLer. Have some balls old man. How did you not insist on Couture, McGinn, or Setoguchi???? San Jose gives up nothing for one of the best scorers in the NHL, awesome deal for them. Stop doing other people favours and do your job and make the team that pays you better.

Cap'n Clutch

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:11 am by Cap'n Clutch

I think that selling tickets will over ride the logic of building a team properly unfortunately. The sad thing is I think it back fires, the team struggles anyway and attendance suffers despite their best efforts to duct tape together a playoff team.

I think we should sell as many players as we can by the deadline if we're out. I would try and replace as many players as possible. Keep Spezza, Karlsson and a few others who are irreplaceable imo.

Alfie will retire a Sen, I don't see any team taking him as his cap hit will stay til he's 40 whether he retires or not.

We can make a run at some UFAs but with the way the team is sliding I'm not sure we'll be able to land any top ones. I'm not sure Semin is the type of player we want, soft, questionable character.

I think they will try and duct tape a team together, can't see Melnyk approving a full on rebuild and tanking for a few years. I think it'll be possible to revitalize the team in the offseason with the amount of UFAs we are letting go.

Hopefully Murray is gone, will be sad to see CC go. Walmsley is the only coach I would keep, I think he's done good with Leclaire and Elliott so far.

The Heatley trade was awful but we had no choice, Heatley put a gun to our head and wasn't going to waive to go anywhere else. SJ was the only team willing to take him and Murray held out right until training camp. We had no bargaining power and Doug Wilson knew it.

It was either Michalek + Cheechoo or Erhoff + Cheechoo.

Cap'n Clutch

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:56 am by Cap'n Clutch

I think Carvel's time is nearly up as well. That guy has nine lives and I think when Murray leaves he'll have used up all of them.

Bad coaching, bad trades (Heatley trade has made this year a waste), no luck and no infusion of fast, exciting youth save Karlsson.

SensHulk

Post Wed Dec 08, 2010 11:17 am by SensHulk

Michalek, Alfie, Gonchar, Phillips, Karlsson, Fisher all got slower and older. Karlsson I think will recover eventually, but the rest might not.

THey're also playing injured and are proving to be quite useless while they're at it! Love their spirit, but if it didn't work for the first 5 games, it's not going to work in the next 10.

And we're not moving the puck well either....how many breakaways do the senators get? Odd-man rushes? Our forwards are so pathetically low on confidence, its not even funny.

And a message NEEDS to be sent already. A trade of bigger magnitude needs to happen, or a veteran like Kuba needs to be sat down. A jolt needs to be delivered to tell the players 'Cuss you and your Cussing complacency. Deliver results or take a seat'. David Hale or Bobby Butler aren't the answer.

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