wprager
Administrator
Number of posts : 52870
Age : 63
Location : Kanata
Favorite Team : Ottawa
Registration date : 2008-08-05
Big Ev wrote:I'm assuming everyone thought Karlsson would light it up last year as well. It People in hockey pools always get screwed by taking the sexy rookie, and I have been guilty of this many times lol.
I had Karlsson at around 40 points *this season*. In the UPP the average projection for Karlsson is 41 (many different forecasters -- including ESPN, Rotowire, THN, TSN, Dobber, etc.) I *wanted* to grab him simply because he is a Sen, but he went much higher than I thought he should go. If you're talking about last season, I simply wasn't going to take him because I don't, as a rule, take rookies unless I'm taking a last-round flier.
Now, that same UPP average forecaster projection has Carlson with 39 points. While I think the Karlsson projections is reasonably fair (he should be close to 40, but if anyone thinks he has upside to 50, you might have to wait another year or two), I think the Carlson projection is not. Karlsson has already shown what he can do at the end of last season. He's been paired up with Gonchar on the PP. Carlson is on a team that will score a lot of goals but Green will get the majority of points from the back-end. Now, if Green gets injured and Carlson takes his place on the PP, that's a different story. As it stands now, Campoli (IMO) has a greater chance of getting 40 than Carlson, especially since Kuba is out 3-4 weeks to start the season.
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