GM Central's Pool (feat. Aetherial)

BigRig77 wrote:

Exactly! I think I made a dozen changes and ended up right back where it started (after flipping a few coins)!

it should be good!

Anyone know if there's going to be a direct link on main page to the pool and standings? Hint, Hint

I have 4 leafs.

I am so dead in this pool.

Aetherial wrote:

Whatever tool Heater uses to track the stats should enable you to see other people's rosters I would think.

Man o Man was this difficult. I spent like 2 hours this morning humming and hawing over about or 5 positions swtiching people around.

I felt like I was constantly .5 over the cap. That damn .5 would have made such a difference!

LOL. Really? Wow, I went shopping for deals in all the skater positions (C, D, W) first and filled up my roster with those guys, and then loaded up with big point producers and big goalies. It took me all of 10 minutes.

But then again, this is pool #6 for me on the year and I've played Sportsnet's 'pick'em' pools for years, so maybe I just have it down to a science now. I guess only time will tell if that science is worth a damn, tho'.

I was aiming for last place, so any higher and I consider it a moral victory.
Set the bar low, and overachieving comes easier.

rooneypoo wrote:

LOL. Really? Wow, I went shopping for deals in all the skater positions (C, D, W) first and filled up my roster with those guys, and then loaded up with big point producers and big goalies. It took me all of 10 minutes.

But then again, this is pool #6 for me on the year and I've played Sportsnet's 'pick'em' pools for years, so maybe I just have it down to a science now. I guess only time will tell if that science is worth a damn, tho'.

Not that your strategy is a *bad* one. It is an obvious one though. I think a lot of people tried to take a similar tack.

In fact, I could have had it done in 10 minutes also. My final team differs very little (maybe 3 or 4 players) from my first attempt.

The fact is, the point costs were assigned to each player were based on the aggregate projections of 11 forecaster publications. This means that, for a player to be a bargain, he would have to out-perform the combined knowledge of some (most) of the best analysts in the business.

If it turns out that you found some true "bargains", then more power to you

It really is going to come down to your bargains vs. everyone else's bargains. I imagine a number of teams look similar, with just different combinations of top forwards/wingers.

Still WAY more variety than the salary cap teams would have looked.

I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

PKC wrote:I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

Yes you did. Holy Diddle.

PKC wrote:I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

Oh yeah, well I unlocked the sheet, changed all the player point costs and I project my team is somewhere in the 2000's.

... and I still managed to spend only 110 points.

PKC wrote:I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

The sheet I use has the same average forecaster projections that were used to assign the point cost. Believe it or not, having this information makes it harder because you can see how certain changes affect you. It is tough to ignore the forecaster projections!

Anyway, I think 1064 was the highest point projection I could get with my team. If you are doing better than 1060, you are doing real well!

Once the teams are up, I might take a crack at calculating everyone's team based on the forecaster average ... not that that means anything necessarily.

Injuries will be the biggest factor in determining who wins or loses.

Aetherial wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

LOL. Really? Wow, I went shopping for deals in all the skater positions (C, D, W) first and filled up my roster with those guys, and then loaded up with big point producers and big goalies. It took me all of 10 minutes.

But then again, this is pool #6 for me on the year and I've played Sportsnet's 'pick'em' pools for years, so maybe I just have it down to a science now. I guess only time will tell if that science is worth a damn, tho'.

Not that your strategy is a *bad* one. It is an obvious one though. I think a lot of people tried to take a similar tack.

In fact, I could have had it done in 10 minutes also. My final team differs very little (maybe 3 or 4 players) from my first attempt.

The fact is, the point costs were assigned to each player were based on the aggregate projections of 11 forecaster publications. This means that, for a player to be a bargain, he would have to out-perform the combined knowledge of some (most) of the best analysts in the business.

If it turns out that you found some true "bargains", then more power to you

It really is going to come down to your bargains vs. everyone else's bargains. I imagine a number of teams look similar, with just different combinations of top forwards/wingers.

Still WAY more variety than the salary cap teams would have looked.

Oh, there are bargains alright, you just have to know where to spot them. There are 35-40 point Dmen down in the 2s and 3s, guys who cost 1/2 or 1/3 of the Dmen who will only earn you an extra 15 points or so. And then there are Ws and Cs worth 3s and 4s who should put up 40-50 points a piece. Fill up half your roster with this guys and all of a sudden you've got mad space for your Crosbys and Ovechkins and Osgoods.

PKC wrote:I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

I'll be very interested to see how you did that. Loading up on great forwards in this system is impossible: 110 points for 20 players = an average of 5.5 points per pick. To put that in perspective: 5.5 gets you such choice selections as Morrison and Zubrus (C), McCabe and Bouwmeester (D -- better here), Dustin Penner and Jussi Jokinen (W), and Khabibulin and Budaj (G).

Unless you were able to cheat the system and exceed the 110-point total, you picked your share of guys who were less than 5.5 points, and hence, you picked some bargains. That's the definition of a bargain, and that's all I'm saying.

Anyway, I'll be very interested to see how much talent everyone managed to squeeze onto their team. I confess, I didn't overtax myself on this one and trusted instinct -- and Dobber -- but I think I have a lot of big stars, a strong D and G, and lots of sleeper picks. If Crosby and Ovechkin have the 100+ point season I think they'll have, watch out!

I simply calculated the cost/point ratio for all three categories. If that's a hint at all.

rooneypoo wrote:

PKC wrote:I put all the bargain Dung aside and loaded my team with a monster roster. Wait until the rosters go up and you see my team. I have a modest projection (assuming everyone stays relatively healthy) of about 1100+ points from my roster.

I'll be very interested to see how you did that. Loading up on great forwards in this system is impossible: 110 points for 20 players = an average of 5.5 points per pick. To put that in perspective: 5.5 gets you such choice selections as Morrison and Zubrus (C), McCabe and Bouwmeester (D -- better here), Dustin Penner and Jussi Jokinen (W), and Khabibulin and Budaj (G).

Unless you were able to cheat the system and exceed the 110-point total, you picked your share of guys who were less than 5.5 points, and hence, you picked some bargains. That's the definition of a bargain, and that's all I'm saying.

Anyway, I'll be very interested to see how much talent everyone managed to squeeze onto their team. I confess, I didn't overtax myself on this one and trusted instinct -- and Dobber -- but I think I have a lot of big stars, a strong D and G, and lots of sleeper picks. If Crosby and Ovechkin have the 100+ point season I think they'll have, watch out!

In the end, I took Malkin instead of Crosby. No reason in particular, I just wanted Spezza also so I saved a point on Malkin. If Crosby has a monster season. It will be a bad move.

I am real curious to see your team now. I have a feeling, in the end, a lot of people will have a similar team, a couple top players on F and some hopeful bargains on D and F. I don't know ow you squeezed good goalies into the picks. I managed one good goalie in Nabakov and took another one at 4.5 who looks like a potential "bargain".

I also took chances with injuries... Colaiacovo, if he stays healthy is a bargain at 2.0, Van Ryn may also be a decent pick at 2.5. Both have some offensive upside and are both potential trade bait at some point.

Speaking of injuries, I think it will be a big factor.

I managed to snag Brodeur and Conklin! Conklin was a bargain to say the least and he's underrated IMO.

I hope my gamgle pays off!

PKC wrote:I simply calculated the cost/point ratio for all three categories. If that's a hint at all.

Ditto.

PKC wrote:I simply calculated the cost/point ratio for all three categories. If that's a hint at all.

My sheet has that also... was the first thing I did

I also have a macro to save my selected teams, so I could compare.

At the end of the day, neither the ratio, the points, or the saving really helped all that much. The truth is, it just gave me more stuff to play around with. In fact, my team is pretty close to my initial 10-minutes selections.

I have to admit, it was a fun process selecting the team though.

If you guys didn't get the welcome e-mail from onlinepools.com then:

Pool Login: 87216
Pool Password: gmpool

And you can see everyone's roster (I believe). Although there are 2 more coming that I have saved on Excel at home.

No surprises here as wprager and I had access to the picking sheet with projections. That definitely affected our choices. Walter was even more agressive "maximizing" his team by projection...

Here are the team totals according to the forecasters...

wprager 1080.6
Aetherial 1057.6
504Heater 1044.7
Monkhouse 1034.4
PKC 1031.4
dennycrane 1027.0
Jordo 1026.2
nprovan 1020.0
Rooneypoo 1016.9
BigRig 1004.4
Jamvan 994.0
Cronenbergfan 993.8
Phoenix 982.8
Acrobat 974.7
MurderOnIce 973.3
Beedub 972.2
Blazer_2458 970.9

Here are the players most picked (not including the 2 rosters yet to be submitted today)

Ovechkin, Kuba (10) (too many people watching this weekend)
Neil, J. Staal (8 )
Foligno, Heatley, Spezza (7)
Alfie, Clowe, Letang, Zetterberg (6)
Crosby, Lee (5)

Little bit of Ottawa bias in the picks!

Interestingly, at the same price as Zetterberg, Hossa was only taken twice?