Shark Bait gone for Heatley; Heatley gone, Shark talk

put me down for michalek, cheechoo, and couture as well, that michalek is going to be a 30 goal scorer for a number of years, if cheechoo could toss in 20, great. couture is a very good prospect and we could end up winning this trade. besides, it's just over with heatley, it has to be.

It's possible Hemlock talked me into it there. :^^^^:

Why do we think Cheechoo's and Michalek's numbers are going to go up moving here from one of the best offensive teams in the league and probably the best play-maker in the game?

EDIT: I also don't see it being as simple as adding 60 goals to our line-up. If we're banking that players improve, you're subtracting 50 goals from Heatley, plus the goals he'd influence as a play-maker, plus the goals that would have derived from the player who would have taken Michalek/Cheechoo's spot.

asq2 wrote:Why do we think Cheechoo's and Michalek's numbers are going to go up moving here from one of the best offensive teams in the league and probably the best play-maker in the game?

I don't think Michalek's will go up, but Cheechoo could have a better opportunity at a larger role in Ottawa than he had last season in SJ. He rarely played with Thornton. Like I said, I don't think 60 goals is unreasonable, but I think they will certainly replace Heatley's output combined.

asq2 wrote:
EDIT: I also don't see it being as simple as adding 60 goals to our line-up. If we're banking that players improve, you're subtracting 50 goals from Heatley, plus the goals he'd influence as a play-maker, plus the goals that would have derived from the player who would have taken Michalek/Cheechoo's spot.

His edit seems to argue your last point, Hem.

asq2 wrote:Why do we think Cheechoo's and Michalek's numbers are going to go up moving here from one of the best offensive teams in the league and probably the best play-maker in the game?

EDIT: I also don't see it being as simple as adding 60 goals to our line-up. If we're banking that players improve, you're subtracting 50 goals from Heatley, plus the goals he'd influence as a play-maker, plus the goals that would have derived from the player who would have taken Michalek/Cheechoo's spot.

About your Edit: Well no matter who we trade Heatley for, that's the case. How does this differ from any one else who comes in as return for Heatley? My whole point here was to argue that Michalek and Cheechoo aren't as bad of a return as people seem to think (admittedly, I did previously as well).

The fact of the matter is that we are going to trade Heatley, barring a change of heart of his part. And even then, is the damage repairable? The day this trade request became public was the day an equal value trade went out the window. We are now looking at damage control and getting the best return possible, which in my opinion won't be equal value.

I agree with your point that it's not as simple as adding 60 goals (or whatever it may be). Cheechoo, for example, has a much better work ethic and attitude than Heatley. There's an off-ice element to consider here.

Michalek (streaky!), Cheechoo (who I'm still un-enamoured with, I just don't think he's a very good hockey player any more) and Couture isn't the worst deal possible, certainly.

asq2 wrote:Michalek (streaky!), Cheechoo (who I'm still un-enamoured with, I just don't think he's a very good hockey player any more) and Couture isn't the worst deal possible, certainly.

It may well be the only deal, as I said. The only other offer to my knowledge that has been officially tabled is the Edmonton one, which Heatley shot down. The only thing making that deal more attractive to me is Cogliano. I probably feel the same way about Penner and Smid as you do about Michalek and Cheechoo.

I'm curious about Cheechoo though. What is it about him that makes you think he's not a good hockey player anymore? Yes, his numbers have declined every year, but so has playing time, and the calibre of player he's playing with. Maybe I am missing something. In any event, he's only got this year and next on a contract that's managable. I too, see the problem in him not panning out and being left with the return on Heatley as Couture and Michalek, but like I said, it's not like there are a flurry of offers out there.

asq2 wrote:Why do we think Cheechoo's and Michalek's numbers are going to go up moving here from one of the best offensive teams in the league and probably the best play-maker in the game?

EDIT: I also don't see it being as simple as adding 60 goals to our line-up. If we're banking that players improve, you're subtracting 50 goals from Heatley, plus the goals he'd influence as a play-maker, plus the goals that would have derived from the player who would have taken Michalek/Cheechoo's spot.

First, Thornton is not the best play maker in the game, but that's immaterial since Cheechoo was not playing with Thornton. And as for Michalek, he could be playing with Kovalev -- pretty decent passer and play maker, too.

Heatley hasn't had 50 goals in two years. Cheechoo hasn't had 50 goals in three years. There are similarities. There are no guarantees that Heatley will have another 50-goal season, just as there are no guarantees that Cheechoo won't.

Bottom line, we are looking at replacing Heatley's 39 goals and Vermette's 16 from last season, then we are looking at improved goaltending, defensive play, transition game (the last two being Clouston's contribution) and rebound years from some of the underachievers from last season -- that will make up the point difference to get us into the playoffs come April.

Kovalev and Cheechoo on the top line will easily replace Heatley's 39; Michalek should not have any problems replacing Vermette's 16 plus some upside.

If you look at Cheechoos numbers they are in between Kelly and Fisher with his salary is in between the 2 as well. He is also a former 50 goal scorer, which neither have done or will ever do. I am all for him coming here and getting a fresh start, but there needs to be more in the package.

cas wrote:

Not a fan of the trade - not. at. all. I would much rather bring back Heatley and risk all that can go wrong

Just to clarify: Are you sure about the buy out numbers? I'm 90% sure any player over the age of 26 doesn't have the "1/3 over twice the length" buyout option. If we were to buy him out in the final year of his deal, I'm fairly certain it would be a 2M buyout for one year.

The standard buyout formula (roughly) is 2/3rds of the total value remaining on the contract, spread out over twice the years of the remaining contract.

Hence, if Cheechoo were bought out next year, the last year of his $3 mil / yr contract, we'd be on the hook for 2/3rds of $3mil spread out over two years. That equals $1 mil per year for 2 years.

Run it through CapGeek's buyout calculator if you want it double checked: http://www.capgeek.com/buyout_calculator.php

asq2 wrote:Michalek (streaky!), Cheechoo (who I'm still un-enamoured with, I just don't think he's a very good hockey player any more) and Couture isn't the worst deal possible, certainly.

All I know is that if SJ isn't willing to part with at least one of Michalek or Clowe, there's just no deal to be had. Period.

Cheechoo is I think for sure destined for OTT now, if any trade goes down. The money doesn't make sense otherwise.

Anyway, Michalek is a pretty solid player. I'd be more excited about him than Cogliano, and Cogliano was the only thing exciting about that last deal: he plays hard, goes to the next, PKs, regularly puts up 60 points a season playing on the second line with Pavelski. There are ways around Cheechoo if he doesn't work out (i.e., a buyout). Any prospects/picks would be gravy. A guy like Couture (skilled forward) is pretty much what the doctored ordered in terms of our organization depth needs.

Everything hangs on whether or not Wilson has the balls to step up and pay the not-so-unreasonable price of a Michalek or a Clowe for Heatley, tho'. If he can't do it, there's no trade to be had.

hemlock wrote:

asq2 wrote:Why do we think Cheechoo's and Michalek's numbers are going to go up moving here from one of the best offensive teams in the league and probably the best play-maker in the game?

I don't think Michalek's will go up, but Cheechoo could have a better opportunity at a larger role in Ottawa than he had last season in SJ. He rarely played with Thornton. Like I said, I don't think 60 goals is unreasonable, but I think they will certainly replace Heatley's output combined.

My confusion is about he was demoted to such a small role when he put up 56 and then 37 goals.

It seems to me a bit like the Penner situation: yeah, we could argue his numbers would go up playing with Spezza, but why wasn't he getting top linemates and minutes in Edmonton?

How is Cheechoo's skating ? One thing this team needs is much more speed. That's why I prefer Michalek over Clowe.

rooneypoo wrote:

asq2 wrote:Michalek (streaky!), Cheechoo (who I'm still un-enamoured with, I just don't think he's a very good hockey player any more) and Couture isn't the worst deal possible, certainly.

All I know is that if SJ isn't willing to part with at least one of Michalek or Clowe, there's just no deal to be had. Period.

Cheechoo is I think for sure destined for OTT now, if any trade goes down. The money doesn't make sense otherwise.

Anyway, Michalek is a pretty solid player. I'd be more excited about him than Cogliano, and Cogliano was the only thing exciting about that last deal: he plays hard, goes to the next, PKs, regularly puts up 60 points a season playing on the second line with Pavelski. There are ways around Cheechoo if he doesn't work out (i.e., a buyout). Any prospects/picks would be gravy. A guy like Couture (skilled forward) is pretty much what the doctored ordered in terms of our organization depth needs.

Everything hangs on whether or not Wilson has the balls to step up and pay the not-so-unreasonable price of a Michalek or a Clowe for Heatley, tho'. If he can't do it, there's no trade to be had.

I agree, Michalek or Clowe or don't even call anymore. The rest of the deal may be hard to work out, but we can take on Cheechoo...if SJ can take on one of our 'bad' contracts.

RobbyJ wrote:How is Cheechoo's skating ? One thing this team needs is much more speed. That's why I prefer Michalek over Clowe.

It's average. He could use some work, but he's no Jason Allison.

rooneypoo wrote:

cas wrote:

Not a fan of the trade - not. at. all. I would much rather bring back Heatley and risk all that can go wrong

Just to clarify: Are you sure about the buy out numbers? I'm 90% sure any player over the age of 26 doesn't have the "1/3 over twice the length" buyout option. If we were to buy him out in the final year of his deal, I'm fairly certain it would be a 2M buyout for one year.

The standard buyout formula (roughly) is 2/3rds of the total value remaining on the contract, spread out over twice the years of the remaining contract.

Hence, if Cheechoo were bought out next year, the last year of his $3 mil / yr contract, we'd be on the hook for 2/3rds of $3mil spread out over two years. That equals $1 mil per year for 2 years.

Run it through CapGeek's buyout calculator if you want it double checked: http://www.capgeek.com/buyout_calculator.php

ah my mistake. Thanks.

I was under the assumption that not only did the percentage rise from 33% (1/3) of the salary to 66% (2/3), but that the term of the buyout no longer exceeded the term of the contract.

SpezDispenser wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

asq2 wrote:Michalek (streaky!), Cheechoo (who I'm still un-enamoured with, I just don't think he's a very good hockey player any more) and Couture isn't the worst deal possible, certainly.

All I know is that if SJ isn't willing to part with at least one of Michalek or Clowe, there's just no deal to be had. Period.

Cheechoo is I think for sure destined for OTT now, if any trade goes down. The money doesn't make sense otherwise.

Anyway, Michalek is a pretty solid player. I'd be more excited about him than Cogliano, and Cogliano was the only thing exciting about that last deal: he plays hard, goes to the next, PKs, regularly puts up 60 points a season playing on the second line with Pavelski. There are ways around Cheechoo if he doesn't work out (i.e., a buyout). Any prospects/picks would be gravy. A guy like Couture (skilled forward) is pretty much what the doctored ordered in terms of our organization depth needs.

Everything hangs on whether or not Wilson has the balls to step up and pay the not-so-unreasonable price of a Michalek or a Clowe for Heatley, tho'. If he can't do it, there's no trade to be had.

I agree, Michalek or Clowe or don't even call anymore. The rest of the deal may be hard to work out, but we can take on Cheechoo...if SJ can take on one of our 'bad' contracts.

Yep, that's it in a nutshell pretty much. This thing is staring Wilson right in the face. Either he mans up and gets it done, or Heatley stays in OTT. I don't know if there's any other choice right now.