See Kovalev in Sens Colors Here

rooneypoo wrote:

The truth is that, looking forward to next year, the Sens would be in a disastrous position next July if we had all four of Heatley, Spezza, Alfie, and Kovalev on the books. We have lots of players, particularly RFAs, to deal with: Volchenkov, Foligno, Shannon, Regin, Lee, Picard, etc.

Keeping all four big name forwards would tie the organizations hands, for the most part, with respect to all these players. It would cost us Volchie for sure, for one.

Sorry to burst the bubble of so many people hoping for a reunion, but for the good of the organization going forward, Heatley has to go.

Dude, we'll deal with next year next year ; or at the trade deadline.

Acrobat wrote:
I wonder -

What if Kovalev is right?

What if the media did lay off, or better yet, if they encouraged him to come back?
And what if the fans tried to look only at the positive for a while, and go deep into their/our hearts to forgive him (like we do for most 4 year olds)?

What if everything could be gotten past, and the team could move forward - really, it would be up to those in the dressing room to make the final call.

Is it possible that Ottawa ends up with a happy Heatley, who wants to play and stay here? And with that, Ottawa ends up with one of the most lethal power-play units that we have ever seen at SBP? (Heatley would clearly get his 50...)

Or is this as possible as pig $hit dropping from the sky and Lucifer on skis?

Well, yes and no from my POV. Heatley is now nothing more than a mercenary for us. A hired gun - our decision was made for us by him. We had to deal one of Spezza or Heatley and we got lucky and Heatley showed us his true colours. Imagine if we had dealt Spezza and then this Dung happened? I guess we could have signed a high profile center, but it's easier said than done.

So, to me, the way Heatley's acted, he's not a Sen anymore, he's on the squad until he's moved. And as I was responding to this I glimpsed Rooney's post. It's true, there's no chance a team can have that much tied up on one line, so we can maybe get by with it this season, but after this Heatley really will have to be let go.

I think SJ has already hinted that they will want him. It might not be at this very moment, but I thought some of Wilson's comments were very telling. He said that the Sharks will be in an amazing cap situation next summer with so much money coming off the books - and that a team would want to dump a salary at some point - and he pointed out that some of these dumps were good players. Sounds a bit like Heatley - although I'd prefer not to think of him as dump.

As of next year, he will be though. As soon as the Cup is awarded, he'll have to be moved immediately. No more diddling around, so we can re-sign Volchenkov (if it hasn't been done already), Foligno and tie up some of the loose ends - like will we keep Shannon, Winchester, Campoli, Picard etc. We can possibly add a forward next July 1 if we get a high picks or a combo of picks or prospects.

Bottom line: he's out the door by this time next year, but I think he stays this year.

TheAvatar wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

The truth is that, looking forward to next year, the Sens would be in a disastrous position next July if we had all four of Heatley, Spezza, Alfie, and Kovalev on the books. We have lots of players, particularly RFAs, to deal with: Volchenkov, Foligno, Shannon, Regin, Lee, Picard, etc.

Keeping all four big name forwards would tie the organizations hands, for the most part, with respect to all these players. It would cost us Volchie for sure, for one.

Sorry to burst the bubble of so many people hoping for a reunion, but for the good of the organization going forward, Heatley has to go.

Dude, we'll deal with next year next year ; or at the trade deadline.

That's what Dave Tallon said. Where'd that attitude get him?

You're confusing Dale with Dave -- the other Blackhawk for life and esteemed member of the MR. Montagoose club.

rooneypoo wrote:

Acrobat wrote:
I wonder -

What if Kovalev is right?

What if the media did lay off, or better yet, if they encouraged him to come back?
And what if the fans tried to look only at the positive for a while, and go deep into their/our hearts to forgive him (like we do for most 4 year olds)?

What if everything could be gotten past, and the team could move forward - really, it would be up to those in the dressing room to make the final call.

Is it possible that Ottawa ends up with a happy Heatley, who wants to play and stay here? And with that, Ottawa ends up with one of the most lethal power-play units that we have ever seen at SBP? (Heatley would clearly get his 50...)

Or is this as possible as pig $hit dropping from the sky and Lucifer on skis?

The truth is that, looking forward to next year, the Sens would be in a disastrous position next July if we had all four of Heatley, Spezza, Alfie, and Kovalev on the books. We have lots of players, particularly RFAs, to deal with: Volchenkov, Foligno, Shannon, Regin, Lee, Picard, etc.

Keeping all four big name forwards would tie the organizations hands, for the most part, with respect to all these players. It would cost us Volchie for sure, for one.

Sorry to burst the bubble of so many people hoping for a reunion, but for the good of the organization going forward, Heatley has to go.

There is no question that the cap implications are significant, but the question remains - would he be willing to stick around for a season if he felt that he had a reasonable chance at a playoff run? (keep in mind that barring any major mismatch, weaker teams can and do make it surprisingly far sometimes; the lack of offers may also make Ottawa a viable option.)

As SD notes, now is not the time to worry about the cap hit for next year; it wouldn't be surprising if the league and the NHLPA manage to come to some agreement with regards to a cap "freeze" instead of a cut, given the number of teams, and thus the number of players, that will be in trouble.

And in terms of numbers to keep Volchenkov, etc - you have already suggested that Ottawa is $800K below the cap. Remove J. Smith, and replace with Karlsson; move Kelly and Ruutu, replacing with Zubov/Bass (for salary purposes - can choose anyone else if you want). You are now a bit over $3M below the cap, if you include the bonus cushion, which is $1.03M. A few further maneuvers (I have included 13 forwards and 7 D) and it still is workable; plan on giving Phillips a long-term deal that runs him past retirement and the cap hit may actually be stable or lower.

I'm not saying it is the best option, or even one I would agree with - I just wanted to bring up the topic for discussion since it was suggested by Kovalev, and once the cap issue was brought up, I thought it'd be worth going over the numbers to show it could be done, though perhaps not without consequences down the road.

wprager wrote:You're confusing Dale with Dave -- the other Blackhawk for life and esteemed member of the MR. Montagoose club.

HA HA!

shabbs wrote:Odd eh? Look back at all this... we were all ready for Murray to move Spezza due to his NTC not kicking in just yet... and then Heatley presents a trade option... and now it's nearly impossible to move him... and Spezza's NTC has kicked in... you just can't win...

I see this whole Heatley situation as a blessing, personally. If Heatley hadn't demanded the trade when he did, we would be without Heatley AND Spezza. I've always wanted Heatley to go before Spezza, centermen like Spezza are nearly impossible to find and they are extremely important to have on your team to be able to get anywhere. Put a Kovalev on Spezza's wing, and you have a Dany Heatley again. You can't replace a guy with Spezza's skill as easily. I'm not saying by any means that Heatley's grow on trees, but with a center like Spezza, he could make a $3Million dollar player into a 40 goal man no problem.

AND Spezza is still 2 years younger than Heatley and he will only be getting better, he's not in his prime yet, Heatley is.

We should all see this as a blessing.

Acrobat wrote:

There is no question that the cap implications are significant, but the question remains - would he be willing to stick around for a season if he felt that he had a reasonable chance at a playoff run? (keep in mind that barring any major mismatch, weaker teams can and do make it surprisingly far sometimes; the lack of offers may also make Ottawa a viable option.)

As SD notes, now is not the time to worry about the cap hit for next year; it wouldn't be surprising if the league and the NHLPA manage to come to some agreement with regards to a cap "freeze" instead of a cut, given the number of teams, and thus the number of players, that will be in trouble.

And in terms of numbers to keep Volchenkov, etc - you have already suggested that Ottawa is $800K below the cap. Remove J. Smith, and replace with Karlsson; move Kelly and Ruutu, replacing with Zubov/Bass (for salary purposes - can choose anyone else if you want). You are now a bit over $3M below the cap, if you include the bonus cushion, which is $1.03M. A few further maneuvers (I have included 13 forwards and 7 D) and it still is workable; plan on giving Phillips a long-term deal that runs him past retirement and the cap hit may actually be stable or lower.

I'm not saying it is the best option, or even one I would agree with - I just wanted to bring up the topic for discussion since it was suggested by Kovalev, and once the cap issue was brought up, I thought it'd be worth going over the numbers to show it could be done, though perhaps not without consequences down the road.

I'm not debating whether or not we can, cap-wise, keep Heatley in the mix now that we have Kovalev. Absolutely, it can be done, and quite easily.

What I'm saying is that it will put us in a very tight spot next year (2010-11) if we do. We would have a whopping $29+ mil wrapped up in 5 forwards (Heatley, Spezza, Alfie, Kovalev, and Fisher) -- or a devastating 45+ mil dedicated to only 11 players (8 forwards, 2 D, and 1 G). Check the numbers, I'm not making this Dung up.

Alfie we'll never trade, Heatley and Spezza have NTCs, Fisher is probably untradeable at that price, and Kovalev will only be moveable if he has a good year. If we keep Heatley and he again refuses to go anywhere, or if Kovalev has a bad year, we put ourselves in a godawful spot.

Not only is $45+ mil tied up in only 11 players a disaster, but 2010-11 is shaping up to be a big year in terms of how many players we have to re-sign, and the cap dip that all teams are going to have to deal with. Look at this list of UFAs and RFAs, all of whom in line for a pay-raise:

Volchenkov (UFA)
Campoli (RFA)
Picard (RFA) }Big pay raises coming here, even if we jettison one of Picard
Lee (RFA) or Lee, and Shannon
Foligno (RFA)
Shannon (RFA)

J. Smith (UFA)
Donovan (UFA) }Presumably all done here in OTT, cap savings of about $4 mil
Schubert (UFA)

Zubov (RFA)
Regin (RFA) }All due for 1-way deals; might be Zubov's last year, granted, and
Bass (RFA) I don't know what happens to Kudelka
Kudelka (RFA)

Just to keep the priority players (Volchenkov, Campoli, Foligno, Regin, Bass, maybe one of Lee or Picard), we're talking about a lot of money -- probably an extra $1.5 mil per Volchie, Campoli, and Foligno, minimum, plus 1-way deals for Regin and Bass.

Add to this the dip in the cap that is coming. Make no mistake, too, 2010-11 is the year the cap drops, for sure. People who look to what happened with this year's cap (i.e., remaining stable) and expect the same or protest "it's all media BS!" don't understand how these things work. The NHL signs its major advertising and TV deals, where it makes most of its money, in the summer. That is, the NHL hasn't yet felt the full effects of the economy because it missed the big crash over the fall and winter months. It's only going to start hitting them around now, and that hit will only show up in next season's (2010-11) cap.

Moving Heatley is now a necessity for OTT, on so many levels. He's a potential cancer in the dressing room, and certainly a distraction for all his teammates. But worse still is the financial situation we'll find ourselves in next year if we keep him and his fat contract. With so many players to re-sign and the cap shrinking, we can't possibly go into July 1, 2010 with $45+ mil dedicated to only 11 players.

Heatley has to go. Get used to the new reality.

After playing a full season with Kovalev, maybe Fisher will be very easy to move. Problem is, he has a NTC, doesn't he?

Still, for me, Heatley is here until he is not. We're better with him this year, but if he's still here next season then we'll losea lot of very valuable (and dedicated) players.

I still think we hang on and let him go at the trade deadline for a much, much better return ...

Oh ... and I'm not Tallon; I doubt I'll get fired over this

Peace!

wprager wrote:You're confusing Dale with Dave -- the other Blackhawk for life and esteemed member of the MR. Montagoose club.

My keyboard is such that, at times, it replaces "l"s with "v"s. Once in a blue moon.

I think I've heard some such excuse invoked by other parties around here.

TheAvatar wrote:I still think we hang on and let him go at the trade deadline for a much, much better return ...

Oh ... and I'm not Tallon; I doubt I'll get fired over this

Peace!

I wasn't trying to imply that you're Tallon or that you'll get fired. Rather, that that kind of cavalier attitude towards the future of the team is precisely what costs GMs their jobs and puts teams in awful cap situations.

I hear you friend. I just think the return for Heatley would be so much better at the trade deadline. Sure, there is a risk (and you're right, we're screwed if it happens) that he won't want to be moved anymore come trade deadline but it's risk/reward.

I don't know, I guess if I was actually qualified to make that call, I might be in a position to make the call; At this point, it's all pie in the sky.

Cheers!

wprager wrote:I blame the "lick" on my wireless keyboard and low batteries.

Freudian slip...

wprager wrote:After playing a full season with Kovalev, maybe Fisher will be very easy to move. Problem is, he has a NTC, doesn't he?

Still, for me, Heatley is here until he is not. We're better with him this year, but if he's still here next season then we'll losea lot of very valuable (and dedicated) players.

Fisher's NMC becomes a limited NTC - which (I believe) means that Fisher gives Murray a list of 10 teams at then end of each year which he'd approve a trade to. Then, it's up to Murray to decide what to do.

Plus, I guarantee that if Heatley stays, as long as the people who get paid to do this do their job, he will have SJ as a viable option next summer. The money they have coming off the cap will be perfect to fill some holes, then place Heatley beside Thornton. Kind of a Marleau (free agent) for Heatley scenario where the team gets a little less gritty on line one, but scores more.

TheAvatar wrote:I hear you friend. I just think the return for Heatley would be so much better at the trade deadline. Sure, there is a risk (and you're right, we're screwed if it happens) that he won't want to be moved anymore come trade deadline but it's risk/reward.

I don't know, I guess if I was actually qualified to make that call, I might be in a position to make the call; At this point, it's all pie in the sky.

Cheers!

Investing in a player for 4 years + a stretch drive and playoff run isn't exactly what teams are looking to do at the deadline...There's no guarantee the return would be any better then than it is now.

cas wrote:

TheAvatar wrote:I hear you friend. I just think the return for Heatley would be so much better at the trade deadline. Sure, there is a risk (and you're right, we're screwed if it happens) that he won't want to be moved anymore come trade deadline but it's risk/reward.

I don't know, I guess if I was actually qualified to make that call, I might be in a position to make the call; At this point, it's all pie in the sky.

Cheers!

Investing in a player for 4 years + a stretch drive and playoff run isn't exactly what teams are looking to do at the deadline...There's no guarantee the return would be any better then than it is now.

The one advantage I could see is that, while teams would not be willing to part with any key roster players at the deadline, they would be much more likely to give up a bad of goodies in the form of prospects and picks. At the deadline two years ago, Hossa brought in Armstrong, Christensen, Angelo Esposito, and a 1st rounder, for instance.

If you're like me and you want youth, options, and cap space to come out of this deal, and not another high-priced forward who will put us back in a bad cap situation, then this may actually be the best route to go to secure that kind of return.

It would be, however, as I said before, a gamble to keep Heatley on the team that long. Lots of potential for things to go wrong.

rooneypoo wrote:

cas wrote:

TheAvatar wrote:I hear you friend. I just think the return for Heatley would be so much better at the trade deadline. Sure, there is a risk (and you're right, we're screwed if it happens) that he won't want to be moved anymore come trade deadline but it's risk/reward.

I don't know, I guess if I was actually qualified to make that call, I might be in a position to make the call; At this point, it's all pie in the sky.

Cheers!

Investing in a player for 4 years + a stretch drive and playoff run isn't exactly what teams are looking to do at the deadline...There's no guarantee the return would be any better then than it is now.

The one advantage I could see is that, while teams would not be willing to part with any key roster players at the deadline, they would be much more likely to give up a bad of goodies in the form of prospects and picks. At the deadline two years ago, Hossa brought in Armstrong, Christensen, Angelo Esposito, and a 1st rounder, for instance.

If you're like me and you want youth, options, and cap space to come out of this deal, and not another high-priced forward who will put us back in a bad cap situation, then this may actually be the best route to go to secure that kind of return.

It would be, however, as I said before, a gamble to keep Heatley on the team that long. Lots of potential for things to go wrong.

Well if the plan is to trade him, then you're pretty much wanting things to go wrong....

No top-16 team trades their 50 goal scorer right before the playoffs for a pure grinder, a pure toss-in, and a few future assets.

Here are the two scenarios for a Heatley return (with obvious shades of gray surrounding each of them):

1) Heatley comes back and everything works out beautifully. Ottawa dominates, the way a team with a top-5 of Spezza, Alfredsson, Kovalev, Fisher, and Heatley would, and they're realistically looking at making a long playoff run.

2) Heatley comes back and we bomb. Its an everyday distraction and he just isn't putting forth the effort. His lack of concern and commitment tear apart the locker room and we flounder all the way until the deadline. Staying around the .500 mark, we're just on the bubble and still in position to make the playoffs by the time the deadline hits.

In scenario 1, we don't trade him and look at making further additions at the deadline. Best case scenario, he agrees (prior to this coming season) to play one more year for the Senators before moving on to a preferred destination. He plays well enough to entice suitors and shows the commitment necessary during the playoffs and stretch drive to make us a competitive, dangerous team. Once the season is done, Murray quietly puts out word to a select few teams that Heatley is once again available. Someone steps to the plate. We move on.

IF that happens, then we get the best of both worlds; but we all know that the best case scenario isn't always the eventual reality...

If anything goes wrong in the slightest, then we're screwed all over. It also rests FAR too much on Heatley's whims. If he just doesn't want to try while playing for the Senators, then his value plummets even further. If he gets injured, then his value plummets and could even be untradeable. If he has a change of heart and decides he wants to stay in Ottawa, then we're back in the cap crunch we're all trying to avoid. If. If. If.....

In scenario 2, any of the above concerns immediately become relevant; we've ruined our season, Bryan Murray loses his job, Alfie loses one more of his better years, and the return for Heatley is worse than we can even fathom (if at all present...); our path at the deadline is muddied, our hope of a playoff run is virtually over, and our locker room has experienced potentially irreconcilable upheaval.

FAR too much can go wrong by keeping Heatley.