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As March Madness AKA NHL Spring Trade Deadline Day approaches, the buzz in the hockey world incites a level of rumour frenzy matched only in mid-June, and, arguably, more gratuitous excitement than college girls flashing in South Beach. This year is no exception.
The Ottawa Citizen offers its perspective on successful and failed deadline day strategies in this morning's article by Ken Warren entitled, "We're All Nuts":
'We're all nuts'
Hockey general managers start mortgaging the future on trade gambles that may well backfire
By Ken Warren, The Ottawa CitizenFebruary 28, 2009 10:01 AM
By most standards, the 2008-09 season has been a lost one for the Ottawa Senators and general manager Bryan Murray.
Yet, by throwing in his cards earlier this week -- suggesting that anybody and everybody on the roster is a possibility to be dealt before Wednesday's trade deadline -- Murray is in position to achieve some long-term gains for the franchise.
As one of the few guaranteed sellers (forwards Chris Neil and Antoine Vermette and defenceman Filip Kuba are all in play), Murray is in position to take advantage of the general managers who are feeling the heat from their owners, their fans, and even their own players to do whatever is possible to win the Stanley Cup.
Just ask Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke, who describes the pressure as "unrelenting," for teams who believe they are in position to capture it all.
"We make more mistakes as a group at the trade deadline than we do in the rest of the year," Burke said in a conference call.
"The more people that are in the horse race, the more likely people will want to try and add to their teams."
Burke says on a pure, rational basis, it makes no sense for teams to mortgage their futures (giving away top draft picks or promising prospects) on a prized player who could become an unrestricted free agent in the summer and not re-sign with the team.
Yet, it continues to happen every year because of the huge potential payoff.
"We're all nuts," he said. "There are 30 teams, but only one parade. After the first round of the playoffs, there are only eight teams left. But teams expect (trades). The players in the dressing room want you to add weapons and that's why poor decisions are made ... and brilliant decisions.
For every brilliant decision, there are five or six bad ones."
In a season when so many teams can still realistically reach the playoffs -- only the Senators, Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, Atlanta Thrashers, New York Islanders and Colorado Avalanche are out of contention -- the price for the players who are available could increase.
Last week, Montreal Canadiens general manager Bob Gainey sent a second- and third-round pick to the Atlanta Thrashers to acquire 39-year-old defenceman Mathieu Schneider, a pending unrestricted free agent, in order to help the club's power play. So far, Schneider has come as advertised, sparking the Canadiens' play with the man advantage.
Considering that, it's reasonable to assume that Murray should be able to acquire a high draft pick if he trades Kuba, who, like Schneider, could bolster a power play. It's almost a foregone conclusion that Murray will deal Kuba. Unless the defenceman is willing to take a pay cut from his current $3 million U.S., the Senators would lose him for nothing when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The Senators are in a similar situation with Neil.
The Senators have discussed a contract extension aimed at re-signing Neil before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, but the sides are believed to be far apart, increasing the chances Murray will trade him. Teams in search of added toughness, perhaps the Detroit Red Wings or Florida Panthers, could be intrigued, pushing up his value.
Meanwhile, squads looking for added offensive punch, maybe the Columbus Blue Jackets, will take a long look at Vermette, who has scored six goals and 14 assists in his past 24 games, following a slow start to the season. The added bonus is that Vermette's salary ($2.7 million next season) doesn't represent an overwhelming burden with an uncertain economic future ahead. Of course, Murray will have to tread carefully with Vermette, a versatile, multi-purpose player who always seems on the verge of a breakout season.
The point is, if the right trade package comes along, Murray could go a long way to rebuilding the franchise by re-stocking the organization with draft picks.
For years, particularly under the tenure of former general manager John Muckler, the Senators were buyers at the deadline, adding players they felt would contribute to long playoff runs.
In 2007, Oleg Saprykin was acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes for a second-round pick. In 2006, Tyler Arnason arrived from the Chicago Blackhawks, also for a second-round draft selection. In 2004, Peter Bondra came to the Senators from the Washington Capitals, in exchange for the Senators' second-round draft choice and Brooks Laich, who has become a solid second/third-line player for the Capitals, scoring 36 goals over the past two seasons.
The Senators, who were once considered to have the best crop of young prospects, are still trying to recover from losing too many top picks.
At this point, they may take a cue from the St. Louis Blues, who have made the best of their sorry situation while out of the playoffs for the past two seasons, re-stocking their prospect pool by acquiring a boatload of draft picks.
Murray, like all general managers, already has an idea of what other teams are willing to offer for particular players. As the days, and hours tick towards the deadline, he will separate the serious offers from the unrealistic deals and try to fine-tune the details of potential deals.
"What everybody tries to do is get in touch with the 29 other teams and see what their needs are," said Blues president John Davidson. "You have to have a general feeling about what teams are willing to do and you keep it all on a chart ... a lot of the homework has already been done (before Wednesday)."
Burke says it's rare that complete deals are struck at the last minute.
"You've got to have an idea going into the day that there are four or five deals that are available," he said. "If you put a (player) in play an hour or two before the deadline, you're in trouble."
Naturally, philosophies vary among organizations and based on the market a team is in.
While Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson acknowledges that his team would love to add a top-flight offensive centre to play with star left-winger Rick
Nash, he says he's not inclined to trade away a first-round draft pick simply to help the team qualify for the playoffs for the first time.
"It's a dangerous game, for sure," he said. "I don't think you should give up a lot just to get in (to the playoffs)."
If, however, Columbus was a front-running team, the strategy might be different.
In 2007, the Atlanta Thrashers banked on a long playoff run by adding Keith Tkachuk at the trade deadline, giving up their first- and third-round draft picks in the 2007 draft and a second round pick at last summer's draft. The Thrashers ended up being swept in the first round by the New York Rangers, gaining only two home playoff games for their gamble. The additional kick in the teeth came when Tkachuk re-signed with the Blues.
The Thrashers were on the other side last year at this time, dealing their own star, Marian Hossa, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a package including Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a first-round pick in 2008. While the club took a hit when Hossa didn't re-sign with the Penguins after the season, at least they got a healthy return in that he helped the team advance to the Stanley Cup final.
There is an additional complication to making trades this season, considering the uncertain nature of the economy. While the salary cap is expected to stay near the current $56.7 million next season, there are fears within the NHL that it could drop as much as $10 million for the 2010-11 season, because of a severe drop in revenues.
That means few teams are willing to take on additional long-term contracts, even if there is a suitable player that fits their needs. If, for instance, Murray wanted to trade a player like Jason Spezza, the weight of his remaining contract (six years and $42 million after this season) makes him a difficult sale.
"It's a concern -- it has to be -- when you hear about the economy ever single day," Davidson said. "If the (salary) cap drops in two years as it possibly could, we have to be aware of it."
Is Bryan Murray just as 'nuts' as all the other GMs? Should he be a major player, or a 'tweaker'?
Which Senators are gone by March 4th, where will they go, and what will they bring?
Will any major trades happen for other teams?
What will be the best trade? The worst?
Which 'much-talked-about' moves won't happen?
Finally, how many donuts will Bruce Garrioch eat between now and midnight March 4th?
The Ottawa Citizen offers its perspective on successful and failed deadline day strategies in this morning's article by Ken Warren entitled, "We're All Nuts":
'We're all nuts'
Hockey general managers start mortgaging the future on trade gambles that may well backfire
By Ken Warren, The Ottawa CitizenFebruary 28, 2009 10:01 AM
By most standards, the 2008-09 season has been a lost one for the Ottawa Senators and general manager Bryan Murray.
Yet, by throwing in his cards earlier this week -- suggesting that anybody and everybody on the roster is a possibility to be dealt before Wednesday's trade deadline -- Murray is in position to achieve some long-term gains for the franchise.
As one of the few guaranteed sellers (forwards Chris Neil and Antoine Vermette and defenceman Filip Kuba are all in play), Murray is in position to take advantage of the general managers who are feeling the heat from their owners, their fans, and even their own players to do whatever is possible to win the Stanley Cup.
Just ask Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke, who describes the pressure as "unrelenting," for teams who believe they are in position to capture it all.
"We make more mistakes as a group at the trade deadline than we do in the rest of the year," Burke said in a conference call.
"The more people that are in the horse race, the more likely people will want to try and add to their teams."
Burke says on a pure, rational basis, it makes no sense for teams to mortgage their futures (giving away top draft picks or promising prospects) on a prized player who could become an unrestricted free agent in the summer and not re-sign with the team.
Yet, it continues to happen every year because of the huge potential payoff.
"We're all nuts," he said. "There are 30 teams, but only one parade. After the first round of the playoffs, there are only eight teams left. But teams expect (trades). The players in the dressing room want you to add weapons and that's why poor decisions are made ... and brilliant decisions.
For every brilliant decision, there are five or six bad ones."
In a season when so many teams can still realistically reach the playoffs -- only the Senators, Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning, Atlanta Thrashers, New York Islanders and Colorado Avalanche are out of contention -- the price for the players who are available could increase.
Last week, Montreal Canadiens general manager Bob Gainey sent a second- and third-round pick to the Atlanta Thrashers to acquire 39-year-old defenceman Mathieu Schneider, a pending unrestricted free agent, in order to help the club's power play. So far, Schneider has come as advertised, sparking the Canadiens' play with the man advantage.
Considering that, it's reasonable to assume that Murray should be able to acquire a high draft pick if he trades Kuba, who, like Schneider, could bolster a power play. It's almost a foregone conclusion that Murray will deal Kuba. Unless the defenceman is willing to take a pay cut from his current $3 million U.S., the Senators would lose him for nothing when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The Senators are in a similar situation with Neil.
The Senators have discussed a contract extension aimed at re-signing Neil before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, but the sides are believed to be far apart, increasing the chances Murray will trade him. Teams in search of added toughness, perhaps the Detroit Red Wings or Florida Panthers, could be intrigued, pushing up his value.
Meanwhile, squads looking for added offensive punch, maybe the Columbus Blue Jackets, will take a long look at Vermette, who has scored six goals and 14 assists in his past 24 games, following a slow start to the season. The added bonus is that Vermette's salary ($2.7 million next season) doesn't represent an overwhelming burden with an uncertain economic future ahead. Of course, Murray will have to tread carefully with Vermette, a versatile, multi-purpose player who always seems on the verge of a breakout season.
The point is, if the right trade package comes along, Murray could go a long way to rebuilding the franchise by re-stocking the organization with draft picks.
For years, particularly under the tenure of former general manager John Muckler, the Senators were buyers at the deadline, adding players they felt would contribute to long playoff runs.
In 2007, Oleg Saprykin was acquired from the Phoenix Coyotes for a second-round pick. In 2006, Tyler Arnason arrived from the Chicago Blackhawks, also for a second-round draft selection. In 2004, Peter Bondra came to the Senators from the Washington Capitals, in exchange for the Senators' second-round draft choice and Brooks Laich, who has become a solid second/third-line player for the Capitals, scoring 36 goals over the past two seasons.
The Senators, who were once considered to have the best crop of young prospects, are still trying to recover from losing too many top picks.
At this point, they may take a cue from the St. Louis Blues, who have made the best of their sorry situation while out of the playoffs for the past two seasons, re-stocking their prospect pool by acquiring a boatload of draft picks.
Murray, like all general managers, already has an idea of what other teams are willing to offer for particular players. As the days, and hours tick towards the deadline, he will separate the serious offers from the unrealistic deals and try to fine-tune the details of potential deals.
"What everybody tries to do is get in touch with the 29 other teams and see what their needs are," said Blues president John Davidson. "You have to have a general feeling about what teams are willing to do and you keep it all on a chart ... a lot of the homework has already been done (before Wednesday)."
Burke says it's rare that complete deals are struck at the last minute.
"You've got to have an idea going into the day that there are four or five deals that are available," he said. "If you put a (player) in play an hour or two before the deadline, you're in trouble."
Naturally, philosophies vary among organizations and based on the market a team is in.
While Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson acknowledges that his team would love to add a top-flight offensive centre to play with star left-winger Rick
Nash, he says he's not inclined to trade away a first-round draft pick simply to help the team qualify for the playoffs for the first time.
"It's a dangerous game, for sure," he said. "I don't think you should give up a lot just to get in (to the playoffs)."
If, however, Columbus was a front-running team, the strategy might be different.
In 2007, the Atlanta Thrashers banked on a long playoff run by adding Keith Tkachuk at the trade deadline, giving up their first- and third-round draft picks in the 2007 draft and a second round pick at last summer's draft. The Thrashers ended up being swept in the first round by the New York Rangers, gaining only two home playoff games for their gamble. The additional kick in the teeth came when Tkachuk re-signed with the Blues.
The Thrashers were on the other side last year at this time, dealing their own star, Marian Hossa, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a package including Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a first-round pick in 2008. While the club took a hit when Hossa didn't re-sign with the Penguins after the season, at least they got a healthy return in that he helped the team advance to the Stanley Cup final.
There is an additional complication to making trades this season, considering the uncertain nature of the economy. While the salary cap is expected to stay near the current $56.7 million next season, there are fears within the NHL that it could drop as much as $10 million for the 2010-11 season, because of a severe drop in revenues.
That means few teams are willing to take on additional long-term contracts, even if there is a suitable player that fits their needs. If, for instance, Murray wanted to trade a player like Jason Spezza, the weight of his remaining contract (six years and $42 million after this season) makes him a difficult sale.
"It's a concern -- it has to be -- when you hear about the economy ever single day," Davidson said. "If the (salary) cap drops in two years as it possibly could, we have to be aware of it."
Is Bryan Murray just as 'nuts' as all the other GMs? Should he be a major player, or a 'tweaker'?
Which Senators are gone by March 4th, where will they go, and what will they bring?
Will any major trades happen for other teams?
What will be the best trade? The worst?
Which 'much-talked-about' moves won't happen?
Finally, how many donuts will Bruce Garrioch eat between now and midnight March 4th?
