Working the Numbers in Ottawa's Favor

We can't beat the Islanders.

We need to play .700 to .800 hockey to make the playoffs. I'm not even sure that we could do it if we swapped rosters with the Wings or Sharks.

I'm hoping the recent success doesn't deter Murray from fielding offers for Kuba and Neil, among others.

A lot of IF's and BUT's there.

The deadline is 2 weeks away and you can basically count on Neil and Kuba getting dealt, and perhaps McAmmond as well as Schubert. Taking Kuba off the back end will hurt this team in a larage way because he plays big mins, in every circumstance. He is defently soft but he is def a solid, sold, D man.

Oh, and the teams in front of them have to lose as well as Buffalo. If you lose the game left with Pitts, one of the 2 left with Carolina it would be nearly impossible to catch them as well.

Buffalo and Carolina also play each other tonight, so who does that hurt? The Sens. If it goes into OT thats another 3 point game.

So Buffalo and Carolina play 2 times, Pitts and Carolina once, those are points for the teams we have to climb no matter what.

Not to mention that Pitts has an 8 game homes stand at the end of the year where teams are fairly tired from the grind.

There is basically no shot at the playoffs, none.

If just one of those IF dont happen, It's gonna be a "not-wanted" 9th place that would look really fugly.

asq2 wrote:We can't beat the Islanders.

We need to play .700 to .800 hockey to make the playoffs. I'm not even sure that we could do it if we swapped rosters with the Wings or Sharks.

I'm hoping the recent success doesn't deter Murray from fielding offers for Kuba and Neil, among others.

Whether or not this team is capable of playing .700 to .800 hockey going forward remains to be seen. The way the team has played the last 6 games under Clouston one would think it's possible, but it remains to be seen whether they can maintain this level of strong play and momentum over the log haul.

That said, a quick glance at the schedule would indicate that it is very favorable to Ottawa. There is a date with SJ, NJ and a couple with Boston, but the bulk of the remaining games are against weaker or seriously slumping opponents. So if nothing else a "WEAKER" schedule does favor Ottawa in theory.

Ultimately though, Ottawa is not a team in disparate need of making the playoffs like say Atlanta was 2 years ago. So I would hope that, like asq2 said, their recent play does not stop Murray from fielding offers that would make this team better going forward rather than holding on to guys, or making a deal that might help the team squeeze into the 8 spot by seasons end.

As I alluded to in another thread, the team at the time had one 3 straight and had not even made up a little ground. Still 14 points out of a playoff spot. Maybe if they had 60 games left to go, then sure they could make it up. But not with the 20 something they have left. It just doesn't compute.

I too hope that the recent streak doesn't deter Murray from seeing the larger picture. These wins means that Clouston can coach. That's it.

Dawg's Wife isn't saying that they will make the playoffs, nor that it is likely, she is saying it's more possible than people are making it out to be.

Fair enough, but we will see what the Sens play like when the honeymoon period is over with Clouston. Can they keep it up? Will they be the same team without Kuba? If Schubert gets dealt along with Kuba, can the others pick up the slack? Im guessing no.

Picard, Lee, and Bell playing 15 plus mins a night in all situations... doesnt sound too good.

I think this team can win without Neil and McAmmind for sure. Hopefully McAmmond can bring in a 5th round pick, that would be nice.

Bass is right...I don't think they will make it, in fact I hope they don't. 11 years of playoffs has meant that we haven't had the strongest drafting position. Even the best of teams need a down year or two to help with drafting top players.

With that said, all I was trying to show is the numbers can be skewed to show we are closer than many people give us credit. Yes there are 3 teams we have to jump, but does anyone think that we can't finish ahead of Toronto? If you believe that, then there are only 3 teams to jump. Pittsburgh who is struggling severly right now and Carolina who isn't playing much better.

Put it this way, should Ottawa win 4 of it's next 6 and Pittsburgh, Carolina and Buffalo all go 2 and 4, then suddenly Ottawa is only 10 points out with the 2 games in hand and still a game against Buffalo to go.

Numbers can work in any way, reverse the wins for losses and they are out of it. Just saying..

3-point games... can't forget about them.



Until we're mathematically eliminated, there's always a chance.

And it is interesting that 5 points separate the bottom 5 teams in the East right now.

asq2 wrote:We can't beat the Islanders.

We need to play .700 to .800 hockey to make the playoffs. I'm not even sure that we could do it if we swapped rosters with the Wings or Sharks.

I'm hoping the recent success doesn't deter Murray from fielding offers for Kuba and Neil, among others.

Me either. The last thing I want to see is more UFA's leave for nothing. Hypothetically, if Kuba leaves as a UFA for nothing, that Mezsaros trade looks like Dung then doesn't it? Picard (who is filler, let's not mix words) and what amounts to almost a 2nd rounder.

Yes it's nice to see the team playing with more passion and energy,but wins are not doing us any good. We are not making the playoffs. Spin the math however, but it's just not happening.

We've had one 4 game winning streak, which btw, is the first winning streak we've had over 2 games this season. Yes, it's a start, but hardly a barometer for the rest of the season. Even if we do make the playoffs somehow, it's a completely different game, and our lack of depth will ensure a tidy exit.

Elliot has been very good for the most part, and Clouston seems to have found a system the players will actually play, but this is a case of too little too late if you ask me. Too many teams to climb over.

If it was just a matter of bringing in a new coach (I should say the right coach), why couldn't we wait until the season was done to do this? I for one, cringe at the thought of finishing 9th or 10th. No man's land. No thanks.

hemlock wrote:

asq2 wrote:We can't beat the Islanders.

We need to play .700 to .800 hockey to make the playoffs. I'm not even sure that we could do it if we swapped rosters with the Wings or Sharks.

I'm hoping the recent success doesn't deter Murray from fielding offers for Kuba and Neil, among others.

Me either. The last thing I want to see is more UFA's leave for nothing. Hypothetically, if Kuba leaves as a UFA for nothing, that Mezsaros trade looks like Dung then doesn't it? Picard (who is filler, let's not mix words) and what amounts to almost a 2nd rounder.

Yes it's nice to see the team playing with more passion and energy,but wins are not doing us any good. We are not making the playoffs. Spin the math however, but it's just not happening.

We've had one 4 game winning streak, which btw, is the first winning streak we've had over 2 games this season. Yes, it's a start, but hardly a barometer for the rest of the season. Even if we do make the playoffs somehow, it's a completely different game, and our lack of depth will ensure a tidy exit.

Elliot has been very good for the most part, and Clouston seems to have found a system the players will actually play, but this is a case of too little too late if you ask me. Too many teams to climb over.

If it was just a matter of bringing in a new coach (I should say the right coach), why couldn't we wait until the season was done to do this? I for one, cringe at the thought of finishing 9th or 10th. No man's land. No thanks.

The team has played with 0 confidence for over 100 games now. Now that it is coming back, you want them to lose again?

Clouston was an experiment. How would Murray know if he would be able to coach next season if he didn't try him? What if Murray gives Clouston the job in october and he is a total bust? Going for interviews again?
Clouston = Elliott = Looking at what potential is inside the organisation. And you save money at the same time.

marakh wrote:

hemlock wrote:

asq2 wrote:We can't beat the Islanders.

We need to play .700 to .800 hockey to make the playoffs. I'm not even sure that we could do it if we swapped rosters with the Wings or Sharks.

I'm hoping the recent success doesn't deter Murray from fielding offers for Kuba and Neil, among others.

Me either. The last thing I want to see is more UFA's leave for nothing. Hypothetically, if Kuba leaves as a UFA for nothing, that Mezsaros trade looks like Dung then doesn't it? Picard (who is filler, let's not mix words) and what amounts to almost a 2nd rounder.

Yes it's nice to see the team playing with more passion and energy,but wins are not doing us any good. We are not making the playoffs. Spin the math however, but it's just not happening.

We've had one 4 game winning streak, which btw, is the first winning streak we've had over 2 games this season. Yes, it's a start, but hardly a barometer for the rest of the season. Even if we do make the playoffs somehow, it's a completely different game, and our lack of depth will ensure a tidy exit.

Elliot has been very good for the most part, and Clouston seems to have found a system the players will actually play, but this is a case of too little too late if you ask me. Too many teams to climb over.

If it was just a matter of bringing in a new coach (I should say the right coach), why couldn't we wait until the season was done to do this? I for one, cringe at the thought of finishing 9th or 10th. No man's land. No thanks.

The team has played with 0 confidence for over 100 games now. Now that it is coming back, you want them to lose again?

Clouston was an experiment. How would Murray know if he would be able to coach next season if he didn't try him? What if Murray gives Clouston the job in october and he is a total bust? Going for interviews again?
Clouston = Elliott = Looking at what potential is inside the organisation. And you save money at the same time.

Saving money? Do you really think saving money is more important than hiring the right guy? Clouston was only hired because he was the quick hire. I think Hartsburg was probably fired quickly, meaning there was no time to try to line up a replacement. I'm not saying he is the wrong choice by any means, but do you really believe he would have been the choice if this had been done after the season? I don't.

At what point did I say or even suggest that I want to see this team lose it's confidence? I didn't. I am, and have only ever questioned the timing of this move. In fact, I'll say right now, the verdict isn't in. Is this a restored confidence or a team doing what it usually does, by responding to a coaching change? That first period last night was kind of telling. Those of us that were here, we saying "same old team" and things like that. Clouston isn't immune. If this team wants to be lazy, they'll do it. Plain and simple.

I only suggested that this move should have happened at the end of the year. We were playing like garbage for OVER A YEAR, so what's a few months more? You're right in that is an experiment with Clouston. What happens if the team reverts to it's old ways?

I'll gladly eat an entire humble pie if this team can get it together and play out of this world to make the playoffs, but realistically, without decent secondary scoring and the lack of a true #1 defenceman, the odds are long. I don't give two Dung who is coaching this bunch. The personnel isn't there to compete in the playoffs, much less play well enough to make them at this point. So why are we actively trying to finish in no man's land. That is just spinning our wheels if you ask me. Murray is risking alot by having us finish higher in the standings. If we aren't going to bring in playoff revenue, then finishing as low as possible is the next best thing considering the holes in our lineup.

hemlock wrote:We've had one 4 game winning streak, which btw, is the first winning streak we've had over 2 games this season.

There was a three game winning streak in there.



Hee hee.