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Dipietro done for season - Isles agree to terms with Dubie

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rooneypoo
wprager
SeawaySensFan
PTFlea
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wprager


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rooneypoo wrote:
wprager wrote:I don't understand, I thought winning the lottery *is* getting the 1st overall.

Huh? You realise that they call the top 5 picks "lottery picks" because they are literally determined by lottery -- that is, the 5 teams with the worst records in the NHL that season have their names tossed in a hat and then drawn out to determine who gets what pick. If you were the worst team overall, you have the most number of "slips" tossed into the hat, and if you were the 5th worst team, you have the fewest number of "slips" tossed into the hat. The worst team overall is thus the favourite to win the lottery for this reason, but not a slam dunk. The order of the teams for the top 5 picks, determined by the lottery, is almost never the same as that of the order of the worst 5 teams in the league -- but the variations aren't all that big, either.

Who is the "Huh?" aimed at? The above is my understanding as well. I was questioning how 50% chance of winning the lottery translated to 75% chance of getting 1st overall.

SensGirl11


Mod
Mod

504Heater wrote:http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/hockey/islanders/blog/2009/01/dubie_agrees_dp_likely_done.html

The Isles have a major problem on their hands. This is year 2 of 15 and DP looks like he won't last through 5 years.

Wow....draft a goalie NY. You don't have one anymore.

LOL! OMG their luck couldn't get any worse...and we thought ours was bad. Is this surprising to anyone? This guy has to be the worst in the league at getting hurt time and time again...wtf is wrong with him? What a great 15 year deal they signed him to...this guy is really turning into a joke...yeah he's good and all...but how many games has he played in the last 3 seasons? 40?

Goodness gracious, get a goalie is right.

PTFlea


Co-Founder
Co-Founder

SensGirl11 wrote:LOL! OMG their luck couldn't get any worse...and we thought ours was bad. Is this surprising to anyone? This guy has to be the worst in the league at getting hurt time and time again...wtf is wrong with him? What a great 15 year deal they signed him to...this guy is really turning into a joke...yeah he's good and all...but how many games has he played in the last 3 seasons? 40?

Goodness gracious, get a goalie is right.

I'll tell one company who won't be happy. The company that insures the Isles players.

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator

They need to replace their conditioning coach.

Guest


Guest

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Last edited by Neely4Life on Thu Jan 15, 2009 4:40 pm; edited 1 time in total

PTFlea

PTFlea
Co-Founder
Co-Founder

Neely4Life wrote:The lotto works like this I believe. Every team that misses the playoffs gets a ball in the lottery, but, the maximum you can move up is 5 spots. So say Buffalo misses out, and they win the lotto and finish in 14th, the most they can move up is 5 spots to 9th. Thus, NYI still gets the 1st overall pick.

Thats how they said it worked last year anyways. Thus NYI has a 48% chance at winning the lottery, but has a 75% chance or higher of getting the top pick. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Ahh...I see. That's possible.

Guest


Guest

504Heater wrote:
Neely4Life wrote:The lotto works like this I believe. Every team that misses the playoffs gets a ball in the lottery, but, the maximum you can move up is 5 spots. So say Buffalo misses out, and they win the lotto and finish in 14th, the most they can move up is 5 spots to 9th. Thus, NYI still gets the 1st overall pick.

Thats how they said it worked last year anyways. Thus NYI has a 48% chance at winning the lottery, but has a 75% chance or higher of getting the top pick. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Ahh...I see. That's possible.

Sorry, its a 25% chance of winning the lotto, and 49% chance at having the number 1 overall pick. I had things a little messed up, but every team gets a shot to move up 5 spots in the draft, or draft 1st overall.

Guest


Guest

The most you can move up is 4 spots; hence the importance of being in the bottom 5.

Guest


Guest

Something like that, i dont claim to know much, if anything about the ins and outs of the NHL office and all things related to that part of the game.

PKC

PKC
All-Star
All-Star

cash wrote:The most you can move up is 4 spots; hence the importance of being in the bottom 5.

Is it also the case that the maximum you can move down is two spots? Or is it one?

wprager

wprager
Administrator
Administrator

Yikes, that's more complicated than I could have imagined.

shabbs

shabbs
Hall of Famer
Hall of Famer

Teams can only move up 4 spots maximum (ie. only the top 5 teams have a
shot at winning the lottery) and drop no more than 1 spot. So whoever
finishes last has a 48.2% of winning the draft lottery and is guaranteed a top-2 pick.

Acrobat

Acrobat
Veteran
Veteran

This table basically lays it out better than anything else I could find:
http://www.leafsnews.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/nhl-draft.jpg
(i.e. the draft probabilities)

EDIT: something seems wrong with that chart - the 25th place team can be 2nd in the draft? I'll find another resource.

Acrobat

Acrobat
Veteran
Veteran

This is the best info/description I can find:

Any team that doesn't make the post season is in the lottery. The lower you stand in the rankings, the more balls you get for the lottery. Now, any team that wins the Lottery can only move up 4 spaces in the draft order. So if you're the 14th overall team, and by some miricle you win the lottery, you can onloy move up to draft 10th. So ONLY the bottom 5 teams in the league have a chance at landing the 1st overall pick. because of this, teams can only move back one space max. So if the team that is the worst team in the NHL loses the draft lottery, they still get the 2nd overall pick... Not SO bad.

Now, some of the people in here with a higher intellegence might be asking "What about the other teams?" Their draft position goes strictly off playoff performance. The 8 teams that lose in the first round pick 15th overall to 22nd overall (The order they pick is done by standings in the regular season. So it's possible that the Sharks can pick 22nd overall this year if they bow out in the first round). The 4 teams that lose in the 2nd round pick 23-26th overall. The two teams that lose in the conference finals pick 27-28th overall. The Stanley Cup loser picks 29th, and the winner picks 30th.

so, as it stands right now, the Leafs have ZERO chance of picking first overall (because even if they won the draft lottery, they still only pick 2nd overall because they are 6th last in the NHL), But the more teams like Ottawa and Atlanta win, the better it is for toronto's chances to draft Tavares.


statistics in the table are right; last diagonal is shifted due to the lottery win moving the team up four spots - weird effect...

Interesting thing this suggests (need to confirm) is that if SJ doesn't win in first round, we end up with 22nd pick overall. (I'm assuming that Anaheim won't catch them before season's end - even better if SJ craps the bed completely though...)

Acrobat

Acrobat
Veteran
Veteran

To add, even if the section on "other teams" isn't quite right, as long as SJ doesn't win the Western Finals, we get 28th; if they lose in the Conference semis, we get 26th or better.

Guest


Guest

Acrobat wrote:To add, even if the section on "other teams" isn't quite right, as long as SJ doesn't win the Western Finals, we get 28th; if they lose in the Conference semis, we get 26th or better.

A first round exit would mean the 22nd pick (assuming they have the best record of all the teams that get bounced in the first round.) Go whoever-plays-the-sharks-in-the-first-round Go!

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