What's Next for the Capitals?

davetherave wrote:From the Boston Globe and SportsIllustrated.com today, May 17:

Capitals coach on hot seat?

Bruce Boudreau, who took over the Washington bench in November 2007, has had a lot of success since succeeding Glen Hanlon.

But if he's going to move his slick bunch beyond first- or second-round KOs, he's going to have to install a defensive template that even his high-end trapeze artists can adhere to and still perform.

There was no safety net in Game 7. Or at least no one paid attention to it. Either way, there's a problem. Could the Caps already have outgrown their let-it-all-hang-out-there coach?

It might sound crazy, given how they've delivered during the regular season under Boudreau. But keep in mind, for different reasons the Penguins were asking themselves similar questions last June after Michel Therrien led them to the Cup finals.

For all their success, they looked as if they needed something, or someone, more. Late in the season, GM Ray Shero finally ditched Therrien and now the Penguins are back in the Eastern Conference finals - having found clear passage around those Washington torpedoes.

I find that a little hard to believe. Remember how many years Jacques Martin got to lose in the playoffs before they finally told him to pack his bags? There are two ways to get better defense -- play defensively, or pay for great defensemen. If they play a defensive style it might affect their attendance and any TV revenue. I think at this stage in the team's evolution they may be better off being an exciting regular season team. With more experience in goal, and by adding a couple of veterans in March they should be able to get through a couple of rounds, maybe even beyond that. Firing the coach now would be the wrong move on a few levels.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:From the Boston Globe and SportsIllustrated.com today, May 17:

Capitals coach on hot seat?

Bruce Boudreau, who took over the Washington bench in November 2007, has had a lot of success since succeeding Glen Hanlon.

But if he's going to move his slick bunch beyond first- or second-round KOs, he's going to have to install a defensive template that even his high-end trapeze artists can adhere to and still perform.

There was no safety net in Game 7. Or at least no one paid attention to it. Either way, there's a problem. Could the Caps already have outgrown their let-it-all-hang-out-there coach?

It might sound crazy, given how they've delivered during the regular season under Boudreau. But keep in mind, for different reasons the Penguins were asking themselves similar questions last June after Michel Therrien led them to the Cup finals.

For all their success, they looked as if they needed something, or someone, more. Late in the season, GM Ray Shero finally ditched Therrien and now the Penguins are back in the Eastern Conference finals - having found clear passage around those Washington torpedoes.

I find that a little hard to believe. Remember how many years Jacques Martin got to lose in the playoffs before they finally told him to pack his bags? There are two ways to get better defense -- play defensively, or pay for great defensemen. If they play a defensive style it might affect their attendance and any TV revenue. I think at this stage in the team's evolution they may be better off being an exciting regular season team. With more experience in goal, and by adding a couple of veterans in March they should be able to get through a couple of rounds, maybe even beyond that. Firing the coach now would be the wrong move on a few levels.

Boudreau has gotten the team to the 1st round last year and the 2nd roud this year. With some tweaking and an an upgrade this team can go further next season.

Phoenix...

'Tweaking'? What the heck is 'tweaking'?

The Caps have a leaky D, and some serious questions in goal.

And some very real concerns about Boudreau's ability to get the team to raise their game to an elite level when it counts.

Or didn't you see how they collapsed in Game Seven against the Pens?

davetherave wrote:Phoenix...

'Tweaking'? What the heck is 'tweaking'?

The Caps have a leaky D, and some serious questions in goal.

And some very real concerns about Boudreau's ability to get the team to raise their game to an elite level when it counts.

Or didn't you see how they collapsed in Game Seven against the Pens?

This was Boudreau's first full season behind the bench. After taking over the team midway through last season and he has gotten them to game 7 of the 2nd round. Falling apart is a learning curve for the team they need to go through. Look at Pitts as an example they fell to the Sens in the 2nd round only to bounce back over the next couple of years. Even our Sens have fallen short only to be tweaked.

As for their defence they do need to bring in a shut down dman with veteran experience. If the GM was on his game he would have recognized this at the deadline. A player like Jason Smith could have helped in this area. Outside of Pothier and Poti the rest of the defence is in their early 20's.

Varalamov kept the team in the series and bailed out his defence and with a full season in net he is only going to get better. Relegating Theodore to back-up is going to have to be the way to go for 1 season. Ah heck he may play better with less games and then address the goaltending when his contract comes off the books.

Overall this is a very young team that does not need to have an overhaul but rather add in some veteran leadership.

Phoenix, BB put all the emphasis on scoring and didn't address the defensive issues.

The Caps were 20th in the league on D during the regular season.

They barely beat the Rangers after falling behind 3-1 and blew it against the Pens.

Boudreau yanks Varly after the kid gets burned in Game 7. How dumb was that?

You're saying they need a few tweaks to go all the way.

Their problems with defense and discipline show they're not even close.

davetherave wrote:Phoenix, BB put all the emphasis on scoring and didn't address the defensive issues.

The Caps were 20th in the league on D during the regular season.

They barely beat the Rangers after falling behind 3-1 and blew it against the Pens.

Boudreau yanks Varly after the kid gets burned in Game 7. How dumb was that?

You're saying they need a few tweaks to go all the way.

Their problems with defense and discipline show they're not even close.

completely agree.

Cap's have a loooooooong way to go before they are a legit contender.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: even with Alzner, I don't like the Caps D. It'll be a long time - or a Semin for Pronger type trade before things start to stabilize.

504Heater wrote:I've said it before, I'll say it again: even with Alzner, I don't like the Caps D. It'll be a long time - or a Semin for Pronger type trade before things start to stabilize.

I think they have good pieces. Green is improving defensively, and Alzner will emerge as a great stabilizing presence. Poti's good, Morrisonn's pretty good, Pothier's a decent 5-6 guy.

Plus, you also have John Carlson in the system (although he's more of an offensive defenceman).

The system, rather than the d-men, at least IMO, is what the problem is. Is Washington's defence corps worse than Carolina's, or even Pittsburgh's? I'm not sure.

davetherave wrote:Phoenix, BB put all the emphasis on scoring and didn't address the defensive issues.

The Caps were 20th in the league on D during the regular season.

They barely beat the Rangers after falling behind 3-1 and blew it against the Pens.

Boudreau yanks Varly after the kid gets burned in Game 7. How dumb was that?

You're saying they need a few tweaks to go all the way.

Their problems with defense and discipline show they're not even close.

I'm not saying they could go all the way but since BB has taken over they have progressed in each of the past 2 seasons. With the addition of a veteran defensive Dman and further depth could really help in moving forward.

They took the Penguins to 7 games with a tired rookie goalie, I think they will be fine. One more top-4 veteran on D and more experience (applies to the coaching staff as well) and they should be ok.

Ovechkin scores that breakaway goal and we would have had another hockey game. Heck, this thread could have been in the Pittsburg section of the forum.

Yahoo Sports provides their persective on the Capitals...

INSIDE SHOTS: WASHINGTON CAPITALS TEAM REPORT
Yahoo Sports, June 10, 2009

The Caps certainly have talent. They’ve got one of the best group of young players in the league in Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Alexander Semin, Simeon Varlamov and so much more.

They love to shoot and score and run wild and play fast. In a short period of time, the Caps have become one of the most feared teams in the NHL. They’ve won the Southeast Division the last two years and have a strong group of players at Hershey in the AHL, so the Caps will be around and tough to beat for a while.

But the Caps have some holes, the biggest one being on defense. They gave up too many goals too often. The defense played much better in the playoffs, especially against the Rangers. But then the Penguins weren’t the Rangers, and the holes showed up.

It was something coach Bruce Boudreau addressed after the season ended.

“We’ve got to get better defensively,” Boudreau said. “We’d like to be able to be a little bit more comfortable and win 4-1 games. It’s not easy to do. We’ve just got the make the offensive weapons a little more responsible when they don’t have the puck.”

The Caps really need another big player on both defense and offense. They’ve got to have a strong physical defenseman who isn’t shy to clear bodies away from the crease. Sidney Crosby could have read a book in front of the goal with all the time he had there. That happened too many times this season.

Even though the Caps have a number of big defensemen on their roster, they’re not very rugged. They can move the puck and clear the zone, but John Erskine is really the only banger. And they need at least one more. Two would be even better. Will Karl Alzner get a chance to make a difference next season? Or even Tyler Sloan? Both played well at times during their stints with the Caps.

The offense needs another solid player to complement Ovechkin and Backstrom on the top line or to be a center on the second line with Semin and the rapidly improving Brooks Laich. Viktor Kozlov often played on the top line, and the Caps need another scorer up there.

The Penguins’ move to pick up Bill Guerin at the trading deadline was brilliant, and the Caps should have tried for him. He would have been a perfect short-term fix this year. The Caps dropped the ball on that one.

Also, how long also can the Caps wait for Tomas Fleischmann to break out completely? He comes up with big goals from time to time but hasn’t been able to sustain it. He’d be good trade bait and could become a solid second-line player on another team. Chris Clark also would be good for another team to get. But he’s the team captain and very popular in the locker room. Still, he has struggled through two injury-filled seasons.

Another question is which young players from Hershey could help the Caps. Keith Aucoin is a journeyman but played very well on the bottom lines in a short stint with the Caps late in the season. Boudreau has said he’ll get a long look in camp this fall. He’s the type of player who could help—he’s smart around the goal. Same with Jay Beagle.

“We’ll see what next year’s team is like,” Boudreau said. “We definitely want to use our attributes.”

The biggest question is in goal. Boudreau said it could be a three-way or even four-way battle among Varlamov, Jose Theodore, Brent Johnson and Michal Neuvirth. But it’s clear which one the coach likes.

“I think that Varly … tired the last couple of games. That understandable. We’ll give him a pass on that one. But he’s definitely made a step in saying he’s the number one,” Boudreau said.

If the Caps can make moves to fill these holes—and they aren’t major ones—they have a very good chance at playing into June next year.

“We went from 94 points to 108 … so we did improve,” said GM George McPhee. “We have a lot of depth at certain positions.”

The Caps certainly think they’re ready. If they can keep improving, the sky’s the limit.

“Our bar is now set higher than it was last year,” Boudreau said.

Season Highlight: When coach Bruce Boudreau moved rookie goalie Simeon Varlamov into the starting spot in Game 2 of the first-round series against the Rangers, it gave the Caps a big jolt, and the fans and media just loved it. The team just didn’t always seem to play confidently in front of starter Jose Theodore, and the 21-year-old Varlamov’s solid play in net let the Caps rally to win that series in seven and push the Penguins to the brink after that. Love the move or hate it, you have to give Boudreau and the Caps some credit for having the guts to make it. After all, the kid had played in only five NHL games.

Turning Point: Without question it was all the problems in the first period of Game 7 in the Penguins series. When Alex Ovechkin couldn’t convert on a breakaway in the early minutes of a scoreless game, it gave the Pens a boost. Then, when the Penguins scored a second goal eight seconds after the first, you could see it crush rookie Varlamov, who probably felt as if he had to be nearly perfect on this night to beat the Penguins.

Notes, Quotes

• D Mike Green set an NHL record for defensemen by scoring goals in eight straight games in mid-February. His stick got sent to the Hall of Fame, but that seemed to be the peak of his season. He finished with 73 points and was plus-24 in the regular season. But coach Bruce Boudreau even admitted that all of the attention Green got might have overwhelmed him a bit, and he faded a bit after that. Green battled through an injury the Caps didn’t want to talk about in the playoffs (possibly shoulder) and had one goal and eight assists and was just minus-5 overall, a surprisingly low number. He wasn’t nearly the player the Caps saw in the regular season.

• The Caps’ Game 7 problems continued this postseason. They are only 2-7 in franchise history in the final game—1-2 under Boudreau. Even though the players, decision-makers and teams are different, this problem hangs over the franchise like a dark cloud. They’ve got to show they can win in those games. Even though the Caps edged the Rangers in Game 7 of that series, they were outplayed for most of that contest—badly outplayed by a team that’s nowhere near as good. And the Penguins just embarrassed the Caps in Game 7 of that series.

Quote To Note: “I turn (Game 7 versus the Penguins) on a few times and then I can’t watch it. I can’t watch it. It’s move on and get better. I think we’re a real good team now, certainly with the core coming back. I think that there’s high optimism for the future and beyond. I think this experience is going to make them be better and make them go further in the future.”—Caps coach Bruce Boudreau.

Roster Report

Most Valuable Player: Not too much suspense on this one, folks. LW Alex Ovechkin should be the league’s MVP after another spectacular season. He finished with a league-best 56 goals and 54 assists to finish second in the league with 110 points. Ovechkin then added a spectacular performance in the two playoff series (11 goals, 10 assists in 14 games) and showed why he has become a true leader. When the Caps are down or need a big play, Ovechkin is looked to and often comes through. He even played through a painful leg injury in the playoffs, and that didn’t slow him at all. “We lost against a great team, lots of guys (were) injured and lots of guys played through pain. It’s playoffs and (you play). We tried, but we lost,” Ovechkin said.

Most Disappointing Player: G Jose Theodore was a puzzle from the beginning. He routinely let in soft goals early but settled down to finish with a 32-17-5 record, mainly because the Caps had so much offense that they bailed him out. But coach Bruce Boudreau and GM George McPhee had him on a short leash in the playoffs, pulling him after just one game in the Rangers series and switching to rookie Simeon Varlamov. That shows the team didn’t have much confidence in its free agent signee—C Michael Nylander was in second place here.

Free Agent Focus: The Caps have only four free agents, and although each is valuable, it’s questionable if any of them will be back. RW Viktor Kozlov, LW Donald Brashear, C Sergei Fedorov and G Brent Johnson all have been valuable to the Caps in the last few years in their own ways.

Kozlov wasn’t as valuable overall on offense, but his two-goal performance in Game 6 of the Penguins series was crucial, while Fedorov won the Rangers series with his late third-period goal in Game 7. In addition, Fedorov is a big leader in the locker room with the Russian delegation and the others. He can also play defense for Boudreau in a pinch and did so a few times this year—and has already said he’d like to return. Same with Kozlov. Brashear also is a big locker room leader, but his suspension in the playoffs for his hit in the Rangers series proved costly.

If Kozlov, Brashear and Fedorov don’t come back, the Washington Post reports that $7.7 million in cap space opens up—another interesting thought considering the Caps were right at the cap all season long and couldn’t make many moves.

Johnson missed half the season after hip surgery after starting great and almost taking the starting job from Jose Theodore. But the Caps have a number of younger players pushing to get into the lineup, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see all four of them go.

The bet here is they go after Fedorov hard, and Kozlov and/or Brashear could be back. The Caps love Johnson, but there might not be a place for him unless Theodore gets traded. That would open up the backup spot if Varlamov wins the No. 1 job because Michal Neuvirth might not be ready to take that spot.

In terms of restricted free agents, defensemen Shaone Morrisonn, Jeff Schultz and Milan Jurcina are there, along with C Boyd Gordon and RW Eric Fehr. There’s a good chance that four or five of these players could be back—they’re all developing quickly. There’s also the question of C Michael Nylander, who has a year left on an expensive contract and likely won’t be back, although McPhee said the club won’t buy out his contract.

Player News:

• LW Alex Ovechkin did something that surprised many. He got better and led the NHL in goals (56) and finished with 110 points (second in the league). The Russian found more ways to contribute, becoming an even tougher physical player and better passer. Interestingly enough, some teams did slow him, usually by following Ovechkin with two players, but he was completely unselfish about giving up the puck.

• G Simeon Varlamov really showed something when thrust into the starting role in the playoffs. He finished with a 7-6 record and 2.53 goals-against average and a .918 save percentage. His athleticism was spectacular, as was his ability to make the breath-taking saves, although the Penguins took advantage of a slower glove hand and his style for dropping to the ice a bit too quickly. But those are things for goalies to work on.

• D Brian Pothier was the feel-good story of the season. Bouncing back after being out more than a year because of post-concussion syndrome, Pothier played well late in the season and even better in the playoffs. He played in 13 postseason games and gave the Caps a solid defenseman, the type they need more of.

Medical Watch:

• G Brent Johnson is rehabilitating from hip surgery and will be ready for next season.

• D Tom Poti had a broken foot but played through it in the Penguins series.

• D John Erskine played through a broken foot suffered against the Penguins.

• RW Alexander Semin had a sprained thumb in the playoffs but will be fine.

• D Mike Green (shoulder) is being evaluated.

• LW Alex Ovechkin (groin) got hurt against the Rangers but will heal over the summer.

Update on Nylander and Other Items of Interest
Tarik Al-Bashir, Capitals Insider/The Washington Post, June 17, 2009

Before I went to watch Alex Ovechkin play poker this afternoon (more on that later) I caught up with GM George McPhee and asked him about Michael Nylander's status with the Caps for next season.

McPhee stopped short of dismissing recent reports that the veteran center is attempting to negotiate a deal to join a KHL team, but he did say that he believes it's unlikely Nylander will end up in Russia next season.

"If he wants to go he can, if it's a mutual arrangement," McPhee said of Nylander, who fell out of favor with Coach Bruce Boudreau last season and hardly played in the postseason. "There's nothing to stop a player if he's agreeable and the club is agreeable. What's going to stop him? If he agrees and they agree, we assign him" to the KHL.

Nylander has two years and $8.5 million remaining on his contract with the Caps.
Asked if he expects Nylander to play in Russia, McPhee said: "Probably not."

I also asked McPhee about a few other issues facing the Caps, namely the status of pending UFAs Sergei Fedorov, Donald Brashear and the assistant coaching vacancy.

Here's what he told me:

McPhee declined to discuss in depth the contract negotiations of Fedorov and Brashear, saying he will know more as July 1 draws closer. Both Fedorov and his agent Pat Brisson are in Las Vegas, but McPhee said he does not have any scheduled talks with them.

"Sounds like he's been leaning toward Russia for a month," McPhee quipped when asked whether he expects Fedorov to sign with a KHL team. "We'll see."

McPhee also said that he has not started the interview process for the assistant coaching position that was vacated when the team parted ways with Jay Leach.

That, McPhee said, will become a focus of his after the draft later this month.

Check the blog later for a short story I wrote for tomorrow's paper about Ovechkin's experience during an NHL-sponsored Texas hold 'em tournament for charity. Ovechkin held his own against Eddie Olczyk, Jeremy Roenick, Mats Sundin and pro poker player Dennis Phillips.

The Caps winger even won a few hands before bowing out after going all-in on three consecutive hands.

Looked to me like Ovechkin simply was too tired to keep playing after an 18-hour flight from Moscow, a jam-packed schedule the past 48 hours here in Vegas and very little sleep.

ESPN's EJ Hradek and Richard Pollock of Puck Prospectus team up to tell us what they think the Capitals need to take it up a notch next year.

CAPS FACED WITH FORWARD, BLUELINE NEEDS
Whether up front or on defense, Washington needs a big rig

Plugging Holes - Washington Capitals

EJ Hradek, Richard Pollock, ESPN.com, June 19, 2009

The Hole: Second-line forward

Many people may think the Capitals' biggest need is on the back end. While true, that problem is best addressed within the system. With the expected development of future top-four blueliners Karl Alzner and John Carlson, the Capitals are actually better off on defense than most would think. Combine that future depth on the back end with the young goaltending tandem of Simeon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth, and Washington's most significant needs might actually be up front, especially considering the expected departures of Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov back to Russia.

The Fix: Sign F Nik Antropov (UFA, Rangers)

Antropov came to the NHL as a natural center, and while he has played wing for a large portion of his career, his ability to play up the middle would be a nice help in Washington.

Last season, Antropov split time between the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers, recording a GVT of 7.8; which would have placed Antropov fifth on the Capitals last season. Even though the Capitals were strong offensively as a team in terms of GVT (15.8 at five-on-five and 21.1 on the power play), the group of Backstrom, Semin and Ovechkin would be greatly benefitted by adding the pending UFA Antropov's skill set (28 goals in 81 games last season).

E.J.'s Take: While I know the Caps have some talented young defensemen in their system, I just can't imagine that they couldn't benefit by adding a solid, experienced defenseman to their roster.

GM George McPhee will have to be thrifty because of the club's cap situation. It might be nice if he could convince Pens stay-at-homer Rob Scuderi to flee Pittsburgh for D.C. In lieu of that option, perhaps the club could use an old pro like 40-year-old Mathieu Schneider or, dare I say, 47-year-old Chris Chelios. Either of those elder statesmen could be a steadying influence in a room that wilted in the heat of a Game 7 spotlight in the second round.


Richard Pollock is a writer for Puck Prospectus. E.J. Hradek is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.

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Note: A mainstay of Puck Prospectus's metrics is "Goals Versus Threshold" (GVT). The stat blends an array of offensive and defensive figures to measure the value, in terms of goals, a player contributes above what the marginal player would over the course of the season. A marginal player is one that could be replaced with a player of equivalent skill, e.g. from the minors. For instance, Evgeni Malkin had an offensive GVT of +18.9, a defensive GVT of +4.5 and a total GVT of +23.4 for the 2008-9 regular season, meaning that Malkin was worth 23.4 goals more than a marginal player over the course of the season, or worth about 0.3 additional goals per game. In the team context, GVT refers to performance above an NHL average team. For the regular season, the Detroit Red Wings had a +30.8 offensive GVT, a +15.1 defensive GVT, a -21.5 goaltending GVT, for a +24.4 total GVT. Therefore, at even strength, Detroit was 24.4 goals better than the average team.

From the Washington Post today, Fedorov and Brashear exit stage right.

CAPITALS INSIDER
Tarik Al-Bashir, WashingtonPost.com, June 25, 2009

Russian Reports: Fedorov Signs With Magnitogorsk (Updated)

According to three reports out of Russia this morning, Sergei Fedorov's NHL career is officially over. The 39-year-old ended more than a month of speculation about his future and has reportedly signed a two-year deal with Metallurg Magnitogorsk of the KHL.

Here's one of the reports (link). Here is further confirmation and a third article (links).
The deal is reportedly for two years at $3.8 million per season.

Update: Magnitogorsk has also announced the signing on their Web site.

Brashear Expects to Hit Open Market

Pending unrestricted free agent Donald Brashear told The Post's Mike Wise moments ago that he has not been offered a contract extension by the Capitals and expects to hit the open market next week.

"I'm just waiting for free agency to see what kind of offers I get from other teams," the 37-year-old enforcer said. "If I don't hear from the Caps [after free agency begins], then I'll come back to them and see if they still want me."
Brashear does not currently have an agent and represented himself in previous contract negotiations with the Caps. Each of his one-year extensions with the Capitals (in 2007 and '08) were signed during the season. He earned $1.2 million last season, up from $1.1 million in 2007-08.

"If I don't go back to Washington, maybe I can help another team get some respect," he added. "I've been doing that wherever I go."

Brashear also told Wise that his first choice is to return to Washington next season, but he's come to terms with the reality that he might have to ply his trade elsewhere, even if it means going to Russia.

"I have to decide if I want to go after personal milestones and go to a team that can win the Cup," added Brashear, who is 11 games from 1,000. "Or go somewhere else and make [more] money at the end of my career."