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Upcoming Draft Talk

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1Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:36 am

rooneypoo

rooneypoo
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Well, we're closing in on draft day (now only 10 days away) and the mock drafts are in high gear.

The two most recent mock drafts released today left me a little surprised, however, with what they see OTT doing with its first round pick. They both have the Ottawa Senators, with the 9th pick overall, selecting....

Nazem Kadri.

TSN's Shane Malloy: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=281920

Dobber's Prospect Report: [not available, must purchase the document to view it -- or win the Dobber Entry League, like me, and get it for free!]

Dobber's take on Kadri to the Sens:

9. Ottawa Senators
Who: C/LW Nazem Kadri (OHL)
Why: No matter where Dany Heatley ends up, his departure still leaves a significant hole in Ottawa. While the Sens should be able to return at least one blue-chip forward prospect in any deal, adding another at the draft table would assure the Sens don't suffer in the future from a lack of depth - their current Achilles Heal. Nazem Kadri is a (sort of) hometown boy, born 'only' six hours away in London, Ontario. His mix of decent size and dazzling skill is a captivating package for a team looking to build a second line.
In five years... Foligno and Kadri aren't anything like Heatley and Spezza. For one, the former duo boast work ethic and a passion to play in traffic the latter only dream about.

Malloy's top 30 you can see for yourself, and then compare against Dobber's projected order, which looks something like this:

Tavaras
Hedman
Duchene }consensus top 5
Kane
Schenn

Kulikov

Cowen
MPS
Kadri
Glennie
Schroeder
Kassian
Ellis
OEL <really low...
Moore
Despres
Josefson
Leblanc
Kreider
Runblad
De Haan
Erixon
Ashton
Palmieri
Olsen
Holland
Werek
Shore
Tatar
Ferraro

Some things to take out of these reports:

1) Both agree that PHO (picking at #6) will take take a D (either OEL or Kulikov).

2) Both see Cowen going at 7, to the Leafs, no less. Puking2

3) Both see MPS going off the board right before we pick, to DAL, leaving us to pick Kadri.

4) After the top 15 or so players, there's all kinds of disagreement about what order the players will go in, and indeed who even ought to be in the top 30 (I count three guys who don't make it onto the other guy's list).

Also, because who doesn't like speculating about this stuff?, here are Dobber's guesses at the guys OTT will draft rounds 1-4 (given their current picks, of course):

#9: Nazem Kadri (C/LW)
#39: Erik Haula (LW)
#46: Mike Lee (G) -- yeah, I'm surprised, too
#100: Roman Horak (C)

So.... thoughts? comments? speculations? As a former prof of mine would put at the end of a 3-paragraph so-called "question,".... Discuss!

2Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:02 am

PTFlea

PTFlea
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Okay, this is how I see it going down before we acquire more picks (which I assume we're going to try to do)

#9 pick = OEL
#39 pick = Ryan O'Reilly (I really think they'll try hard to get him, even if they have to trade up)

I don't know why they both have OEL so low, he's dynamite - and probably a better pick than Kulikov. But hey, they know more than I do.

3Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:10 am

rooneypoo

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SpezDispenser wrote:Okay, this is how I see it going down before we acquire more picks (which I assume we're going to try to do)

#9 pick = OEL
#39 pick = Ryan O'Reilly (I really think they'll try hard to get him, even if they have to trade up)

I don't know why they both have OEL so low, he's dynamite - and probably a better pick than Kulikov. But hey, they know more than I do.

Malloy has OEL going at #6 (PHO), and Kulikov at something like 12th or 13th. I understand being nervous about Russian players (the KHL), I guess. Why OEL would fall so low, however, I can't explain.

Both guys agree Ryan O'Reilly will go somewhere in the top 10 in the second round. Looks unlikely that he'll still be on the board come pick #39, tho'...

I'm really interested in hearing opinions about Kadri. I'm surprised to see him leap over both Kassian and Schroeder.

So, if the top 8 go roughly as both experts predict, who would you take with the #9 pick? One of OEL / Kulikov (D)? Or one of Kadri, Kassian, or Schroeder (all forwards)? Or do you go off the board slightly with, say, Ellis?

I know Heater's answer now, but I'm interested in seeing who people think we should be picking here.

4Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:50 am

Guest


Guest

I'm not looking to start a religious debate here, but I've heard that Kadri is a strict Muslim, who obverses all the traditions and customs of Islam. I'm wondering how that may affect his game, particularly during Ramadan. I don't think it would affect his game much, I was just more curious than anything. Anyone know much about his London days and how his religion affected his game, if at all?

5Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 2:06 am

LeCaptain

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I still think a lot of teams, a few years from now, will regret not taking Jordan Shroeder.
Bryan Murray will trade up to get one of the big 3 (I mean, the second tier of Big 3)

6Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:10 am

wprager

wprager
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hemlock wrote:I'm not looking to start a religious debate here, but I've heard that Kadri is a strict Muslim, who obverses all the traditions and customs of Islam. I'm wondering how that may affect his game, particularly during Ramadan. I don't think it would affect his game much, I was just more curious than anything. Anyone know much about his London days and how his religion affected his game, if at all?

Are you specifically concerned about the "fasting" during Ramadan? They *do* eat, you know, just after sundown/before sunrise. I've worked with plenty of Muslim co-workers over the last many years, and I don't really see how this would matter much to a hockey player.

Not to add more fuel to the "debate", but I might be more concerned about, say, an ultra-conservative person of the Jewish faith who strictly observes the Sabbath and will not work after Sundown on Friday. Imagine Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Final (which this year was Friday night, 8PM) and your star player quits half-way through the first period as the sun goes down.

In any case, this is a pointless debate for two reasons:
1. Neither one of us really knows all the religious observances of all religions out there.
2. Even strict observance has dispensations for special situations.

For example, when is the last time you saw Mike Fisher, a Christian, turn the other cheek, or follow the golden rule? On the ice, it's "Do unto others before they do it unto you."

I remember listening to Ryan Walter as a guest speaker, he said he had no trouble separating his Christianity from his hockey, and the way he played on the ice, you'd certainly have to believe him.

Speaking of Ryan, where is he? Why hasn't he surfaced somewhere in the Habs organization like so many of the others have? Carbo has, so we know it's not the "former team captain dealt away" thing.



Last edited by wprager on Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:42 am; edited 1 time in total

7Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:55 am

LeCaptain

LeCaptain
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Ramadan is in July/August, so the only games it would affect is street hockey Laughing3

8Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:01 am

rooneypoo

rooneypoo
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The Sens homepage is starting to put up detailed profiles of / interviews with the players we stand to pick with our 9th overall selection. So far:

Kadri: http://senators.nhl.com/team/app?articleid=425470&page=NewsPage&service=page

Cowen: http://senators.nhl.com/team/app?articleid=425338&page=NewsPage&service=page

Gotta say, after all I've read on Kadri in the last 24 hours, I'm starting to see why he's inching his way up the draft.

9Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:45 am

Guest


Guest

rooneypoo wrote:
Malloy has OEL going at #6 (PHO), and Kulikov at something like 12th or 13th. I understand being nervous about Russian players (the KHL), I guess. Why OEL would fall so low, however, I can't explain.

Both guys agree Ryan O'Reilly will go somewhere in the top 10 in the second round. Looks unlikely that he'll still be on the board come pick #39, tho'...

I'm really interested in hearing opinions about Kadri. I'm surprised to see him leap over both Kassian and Schroeder.

So, if the top 8 go roughly as both experts predict, who would you take with the #9 pick? One of OEL / Kulikov (D)? Or one of Kadri, Kassian, or Schroeder (all forwards)? Or do you go off the board slightly with, say, Ellis?

I know Heater's answer now, but I'm interested in seeing who people think we should be picking here.

For some organizations Russian players are a big taboo. The player has to be a stud, and already be tied to North America, ie playing in Junior or American College. Further being a sens fan (Dawg hates that by the way), I hope they get a forward, but that really depends on what they get for the a$$hole they are trading. If they get JJ and Tuebert, then I don't think they need to draft a defenseman at all, and take 2 forwards.

Also I love, and I mean LOVE, Ryan Ellis. If we didn't already have a smallish PMD in Karlsson I would take him above OEL, his size doesn't concern me (Russell, Rafalski, Lebda, Timonen) as long as he is coupled with someone like Volchenkov.

Anyways...I'm off back to Ottawa while Dawg gets put into exile until after the draft.

DW

10Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:52 am

The Silfer Server

The Silfer Server
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I just picked up the Hockey News' Draft Preview, and in their top 10 prospects for this draft, David Rundblad has surpassed OEL, and is actually ranked 10th, ahead of Kulikov as well. They have Nazem Kadri ranked 8th, and has Cowen back up in the top 5, at position 4. And good news, they have Ryan O'Reilly ranked 39th... Although to be clear, this is not a mock draft, just their prospect rankings.

On another note, they have this interesting feature here they have the GM Drafting Report Card, breaking down each GM's history at the draft, how many picks they've had, and a little other info on it...

Bryan Murray:
11 drafts (94-00, 01-02, 07-08)
92 picks
35 played in the NHL
18 played 200+ games

Best Value picks:
F. Kuba, 192nd in '95
J. Spacek, 117th in '98
N. Hagman, 70th in '99

11Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:02 am

davetherave

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Bass Destruction wrote:I just picked up the Hockey News' Draft Preview, and in their top 10 prospects for this draft, David Rundblad has surpassed OEL, and is actually ranked 10th, ahead of Kulikov as well. They have Nazem Kadri ranked 8th, and has Cowen back up in the top 5, at position 4. And good news, they have Ryan O'Reilly ranked 39th... Although to be clear, this is not a mock draft, just their prospect rankings.

On another note, they have this interesting feature here they have the GM Drafting Report Card, breaking down each GM's history at the draft, how many picks they've had, and a little other info on it...

Bryan Murray:
11 drafts (94-00, 01-02, 07-08)
92 picks
35 played in the NHL
18 played 200+ games

Best Value picks:
F. Kuba, 192nd in '95
J. Spacek, 117th in '98
N. Hagman, 70th in '99

Thanks for the tip...definitely an issue of THN to pick up.

Who are some of the other standout GMs?

What were the 'Best Value' criteria?

12Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:27 am

The Silfer Server

The Silfer Server
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I'll just list some of the standout GMs, and everything THN says about htem. And I'm going to take standout GMs to mean highest percentage of picks to have first of all played in the nhl, and secondly played more than 200 games... And as for the criteria for 'Best Value', they don't actually define it, but they seem to value games played, and that late 3rd round or later picks, and the players all seem to be active NHLers.

Most impressive for me would be Pierre Lacroix.
12 drafts (94-05)
125 picks
56 played in NHL
35 in 200+ games
Best value picks (BVP)
T. Thomas, 217th in '94
M. Svatos, 227th in '01
M. Hejduk, 87th in '94.

I figured Ken Holland would be impressive, but was a bit of a letdown actually.
11 drafts (98-08)
88 picks
21 played in NHL
6 in 200+ games
BVP
Datsyuk, 171st in '98
Zetterberg, 210th in '99
Franzen, 97th in '04

Recently fired Doug Risebrough had some good numbers too:
14 drafts (91-95, 00-08)
127 picks
53 played in NHL
22 in 200+ games
BVP
Clutterbuck, 72nd in '06
Veilleux, 93rd in '01
Boogaard, 202 in '01

Dean Lombardi:
10 drafts (96-02,06-08)
79 picks
35 played in the NHL
14 in 200+ games
BVP
M. Samuelsson, 145th in '98
Clowe, 175th in '01
D. Murray, 241st in '99

Lou Lamoriello... They cheated with his Best Value Picks, in my opinion. Brodeur, I guess you can say at 20th yes, ok... but he was a 1st rounder. And they definitely cheated with Parise... But maybe he just hasn't had any gems that are still active.
21 drafts (87-08)
215 picks
85 played in the NHL
43 in 200+ games
BVP
M. Brodeur, 20th in '90
S. Sullivan, 223rd in '94
Z. Parise, 17th in '03

David Poile
25 drafts (83-96, 98-08)
267 picks
98 played in the NHL
36 in 200+ games
BVP
P. Bondra, 156th in '90
A. Brunette, 174th in '93
M. Erat, 191st in '99

I will also include Dale Tallon for you Dave, although he has not had many drafts, and a lot of his prospects are still yet to mature to play in the NHL.
4 drafts (05-08)
35 picks
5 played in the NHL
0 in 200+ games
BVP
N. Hjalmarsson, 108th in '05
S. Lalonde, 68th in '08
E. Brophey, 68th in '05

I'm going to stop there... I may transcribe the rest later. If anyone is curious about a particular GM, just post here, and i'll add it in a new post.

13Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:32 am

davetherave

davetherave
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BassD>thanks. Great stuff.

14Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:42 am

PKC

PKC
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Bryan Murray's draft record is pretty damn good looking at those numbers. I wish they listed by round of draft how many players went on to play in the NHL/200+ games...would be a good way to gauge how accurate his first round picks are and how he's done in the latter stages of the draft as well.

Fantastic stuff though...thanks for posting Bass.

15Upcoming Draft Talk Empty Re: Upcoming Draft Talk Tue Jun 16, 2009 10:43 am

wprager

wprager
Administrator
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marakh wrote:Ramadan is in July/August, so the only games it would affect is street hockey Laughing3

Good thing, then, that Redden is not a Muslim. That would seriously cut into his street hockey career.

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