The Ultimate Free Agent Guide

The Ultimate Free Agent Guide -- Part One

I have decided to compile this guide because a lot of people want to know what the chances are a free agent will go to a certain team. My guide will attempt to take team needs and cap space to show the likeliness of one of the big free agents signing there.

My first unrestricted free-agent player that I will use for all the teams will be defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. I am not going to take into account any trades that might occur, this guide is aimed at showing where the free agents will most likely sign on July 1st.

Legend -- Name: [position, current cap hit] (projected contract)
All numbers taken from nhlscap.com.
All total salary cap payroll numbers assume team retains key FAs.

Bouwmeester quick hits
• Looking for approximately $6 million per season on long term contract.
• Wants to play for a competitive, playoff oriented team.
• Reports indicate he might be inclined to sign in a big market.

Anaheim Ducks

Key FAs

Brenden Morrison: [center, $2.75 million] (sub-par season: $1 million)
Todd Marchant: [center, $2.5175 million] (sub-par season: $1.5 million)
Rob Niedermayer: [center, $2 million] (sub-par season/team worst -16 rating: $1 million)
Samuel Pahlsson: [center, $1.4 million] (sub-par season/team worst -16 rating: $1 million)
Scott Niedermayer: [defenseman, $6.75 million] (could retire/if he re-signs: $5 million)
Francois Beauchemin: [defenseman, $1.65 million] (injury season/still due for raise: $3 million)
Steve Montador: [defenseman, $800,000] (having good year: $2 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $36,080,000 (projected) $53,230,000
Team needs: second line center, youth, speed

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 5%

Atlanta Thrashers

With an internal cap, a team that is further away from the playoffs than Florida, and enough money invested in their blueline with improvements to the forwards corps to be made, the chances of Bouwmeester signing here are 1%.

Boston Bruins

Key FAs

Phil Kessel: [center, $2.2 million] (breakout season: $4.5 million)
David Krejci: [center, $883,333] (breakout season: $5 million)
Shane Hnidy: [defenseman, $757,500] (above average season: $1 million)
Matt Hunwick: [defenseman, $750,000] (good season: $1.25 million)
Manny Fernandez [goaltender, $4.33 million] (career year: $3.5 million)
Tim Thomas [goaltender, $1.1 million] (career year: $4.5 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $42,645,833 (projected) $64,895,833
Team needs: re-sign young stars, sign goaltenders

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 1%

Buffalo Sabres

Key FAs

Maxim Afinogenov: [right wing, $3.33 million] (sub-par/injury season: $2 million)
Tim Connolly: [center, $2.9 million] (nearly PPG when healthy/injury season: $3 million)
Ales Kotalik: [right wing, $2.33 million] (good year: $3 million)
Drew Stafford: [right wing, $984,200] (breakout year: $3 million)
Clarke Macarthur: [left wing, $522,500] (above average season: $1.1 million)
Jaroslav Spacek: [defenseman, $3.33 million] (average season: $3 million)
Teppo Numminen: [defenseman, $1.85 million] (considerably bad season: $1.5 million)
Andrej Sekera: [defenseman, $675,000] (average season: $1.1 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $41,188,690 (projected) $60,038,690
Team needs: powerplay quarterback, healthy second line center, shutdown defenseman
* Note: Self-imposed salary cap

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 5%

Calgary Flames

Key FAs

Mike Cammalleri [center, $3.35 million] (above average season: $4.5 million)
Todd Bertuzzi [right wing, $1.95 million] (good season: $2.7 million)
David Moss [left wing, $550,000] (career year: $1.35 million)
Adrian Aucoin [defenseman, $4 million] (slightly below average: $2.85 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $42,649,167 (projected) $55,799,167
Team needs: quality backup goaltender, second line center

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 30%

Carolina Hurricanes

Key FAs

Tuomo Ruutu [center, $2.25 million] (above average season: $3 million)
Jussi Jokinen [left wing, $1.8125 million] (struggling: $1.3 million)
Dennis Seidenberg [defenseman, $1.2 million] (career year: $1.8 million)
Anton Babchuk [defenseman, $1 million] (career year: $1.6 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $46,566,667 (projected) $54,266,667
Team needs: better special teams (PP + PK), better production from top players

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 15% (have the money, but haven’t made the playoffs since they won the Cup)

Chicago Blackhawks

Key FAs

Martin Havlat [right wing, $6 million] (above average season: $4.25 million)
Kris Versteeg [right wing, $491,667] (breakout sophomore campaign: $3.1 million)
Dave Bolland [center, $845,833] (breakout season: $1.9 million)
Cam Barker [defenseman, $2.768587 million] (breakout year: $2.4 million)
Nikolai Khabibulin [goaltender, $6.75 million] (career year: $4.5 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $37,488,041 (projected) $53,638,041
Team needs: veteran leadership, better faceoff percentage

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 1%. Despite having the money, the year after they have big contracts to hand out to their young stars (Kane and Toews)

Colorado Avalanche

Key FAs

Joe Sakic [center, $6 million] (could retire/injury season, if he returns: $5 million)
Tyler Arnason [center, $1.675 million] (sub-par season: $1.2 million)
Jordan Leopold [defenseman, $1.5 million] (above average season: $2.5 million)
Andrew Raycroft [goaltender, $800,000] (sub-par season: $800,000)
Peter Budaj [goaltender, $700,000] (sub-par season: $700,000)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $42,075,000 (projected) $52,275,000
Team needs: number 1 goaltender, second line center, powerplay quarterback, shutdown defensemen

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 10%, they have the money, but they have so many holes to fill, it might be impossible to improve the team if they add him. Goaltending is number 1 issue that needs to be addressed.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Haven’t made the playoffs in team history, have an internal cap, and need to find Rick Nash a bonafide top line center. Certainly need a true powerplay quarterback to help their powerplay which is currently dead last in the league with a woeful 12.6% conversion rate. However, Bouwmeester’s salary is too much for this team to absorb while addressing other areas of concern as well. Chances of Bouwmeester signing here are 1%.

Dallas Stars

Key FAs

Jere Lehtinen [right wing, $4 million] (injury season: $3 million)
Sergei Zubov [defenseman, $5.35 million] (injury season/could retire, if he re-signs: $5 million)
Darrly Sydor [defenseman, $2.5 million] (sub-par season: $1.8 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $42,746,667 (projected) $52,546,667
Team needs: Zubov’s return/true powerplay quarterback, scoring wingers/sniper, legitimate backup goaltender

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 70% if Zubov doesn’t return, 15% if he does.

Detroit Red Wings

Not a very likely situation here for them to sign Bouwmeester. They have enough to deal with trying to get Hossa, Samuelsson, Franzen, and Hudler signed. Plus, they might have to make a move for a legitimate starter in nets. Osgood has been shaky this year despite a winning record, and Conklin is an unknown quantity in the playoffs. Regardless, the Wings might want to sign Bouwmeester and have a legend (Lidstrom) groom him into an elite defenseman.

Chances are less than 10% that Bouwmeester signs here.

Edmonton Oilers

Logic doesn’t dictate that Bouwmeester is likely at all to sign here. Edmonton has massive amounts of money invested in their blueline as is. Three of their top 6 scorers are defensemen which certainly means that the Oilers are very thin on skill scorers up front. Roloson is a free-agent this year, and has been the only consistent netminder for them. The Oilers need to find a better scorer to play with Hemsky, need to solidify their netminding and re-sign Grebeshkov to a contract before they can even consider signing Bouwmeester.

Chances are still 15% because Bouwmeester is from Edmonton.

Florida Panthers

He’s been on record several times saying that he will not be re-signing in Florida. But if the cats make the playoffs that could change a lot of things.

Chances of Bouwmeester re-signing are 20% if the Panthers make the playoffs, 0% if they don’t.

Los Angeles Kings

Not the type of team to go out and blow it’s budget on a free-agent. Plus, with Johnson and Hickey and even possibly Teubert playing next year, the Kings’ blueline is set to be supremely talented and crowded. Also, another factor going against them is an internal cap and a lack of recent playoff appearances.

Chances of Bouwmeester signing here are 5%.

Minnesota Wild

Key FAs

Marion Gaborik [right wing, $6.33 million] (injury season/franchise winger and supreme talent, wants at least $6.5 million according to reports)
Niklas Backstrom [goaltender, $3.1 million] (supremely talented goaltender/best FA goaltender this year: $5.5 million)

2009-10 Salary Cap Payroll: (currently) $36,391,111 (projected) $48,391,111
Team needs: more scoring forwards

Chances of signing Bouwmeester: 65%. Burns and Bouwmeester could be a Team Canada 2010 pairing at the Olympics. The Wild could have the best defensive pairing in the NHL for the next decade.

beedub wrote:Do you think a team like Dallas would trade for him at the deadline, with the hopes of signing him, or just wait for July1

The trading is so problematic to predict because it encompasses so many other factors (value, chemistry, cap space, willingness, what terms the GMs of the respective teams are on, etc.)
With that said, in Bouwmeester's case, it's certainly a coin toss. A team could sell the farm to acquire him and extend him; on the other hand, it's a 90% chance that he tests the free agent waters on July 1st cause he knows he can get the big, big bucks then.

For Dallas though, if they get a feeling that Zubov may elect to retire, they could certainly make a move for him. Wouldn't be surprising in the least bit...although I don't know what they'd have to part with to acquire him.

Stickied.

504Heater wrote:Stickied.

you defiled the thread by stickieing it, tsk tsk, I thought you were above that. very good job on this though PKC

This might once again come in handy soon.

Working on Part Two with a revision to Part One, should be out within the next week.

This is nice work. Thanks!

Holy crap PKC!!!!! That's some solid work. Thanks a lot for that!

Don't mean to complain, but isn't Pahlsson with the Hawks now?

wprager wrote:Don't mean to complain, but isn't Pahlsson with the Hawks now?

Sorry, notice the date it was posted. The revision for Part One will be up when Part Two goes up.

Ah, geez, I thought it was a new topic. Sorry 'bout that.