Bettman: "Salary Cap will NOT go down next year"; and GMHockey investigates NHL attendance

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The "Amazing Bettmani" will pull a golden goose out of his hat, just wait and see.

I wonder, do franchise fees count as income to the league? Because that could seriously affect the cap. 55% of just $300M would raise the cap $5.5M for each team. And if they expand to 32 teams the franchise fees could very easily exceed that (if not double it).

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The cap has been going up even as teams lose money, so why should next year be any different?

davetherave wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The cap has been going up even as teams lose money, so why should next year be any different?

Because the economy sucks everywhere? We are not talking about 30 teams staying in the black, but for league revenues overall to continue going up. Some are raising ticket prices, but quite a few cannot sell tickets at all. The Sens did not sell out their home opener. As far as I know the Leafs didn't raise prices, and with no post-season in Toronto, Montreal or (likely) Edmonton this year, that's half of the $95-cent-loonie teams not getting any post-season gate receipts.

I'm not saying the cap will go down, but I'm not saying there isn't a reason to think that it would.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The cap has been going up even as teams lose money, so why should next year be any different?

Because the economy sucks everywhere? We are not talking about 30 teams staying in the black, but for league revenues overall to continue going up. Some are raising ticket prices, but quite a few cannot sell tickets at all. The Sens did not sell out their home opener. As far as I know the Leafs didn't raise prices, and with no post-season in Toronto, Montreal or (likely) Edmonton this year, that's half of the $95-cent-loonie teams not getting any post-season gate receipts.

I'm not saying the cap will go down, but I'm not saying there isn't a reason to think that it would.

So are you saying you don't know one way or the other, and neither do any of us on this forum?

I'll tell you who does know - and that's Bettman, and he says it's not going down -and if it does, not by much.

davetherave wrote:

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The cap has been going up even as teams lose money, so why should next year be any different?

Because the economy sucks everywhere? We are not talking about 30 teams staying in the black, but for league revenues overall to continue going up. Some are raising ticket prices, but quite a few cannot sell tickets at all. The Sens did not sell out their home opener. As far as I know the Leafs didn't raise prices, and with no post-season in Toronto, Montreal or (likely) Edmonton this year, that's half of the $95-cent-loonie teams not getting any post-season gate receipts.

I'm not saying the cap will go down, but I'm not saying there isn't a reason to think that it would.

So are you saying you don't know one way or the other, and neither do any of us on this forum?

You asked: why should next year be any different? I see lots of reasons why this year could be different.

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:

wprager wrote:

davetherave wrote:

rooneypoo wrote:

SpezDispenser wrote:"Over the last few months, there's been a lot of speculation that the cap's going to go down 20 percent. That's absurd. That's just made-up. It isn't going to happen," Bettman said. "I think it will be somewhere near where it is ($56.8 million), up a little, down a little, somewhere near where it is."

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/devils/devils_have_even_more_fun_in_florida_tiq2rTUfF4Hyk7kB25h18I

I'll believe it when I see it. The Coyotes alone ought to cost the league close to $1 mil / team on the cap, LOL.

The cap has been going up even as teams lose money, so why should next year be any different?

Because the economy sucks everywhere? We are not talking about 30 teams staying in the black, but for league revenues overall to continue going up. Some are raising ticket prices, but quite a few cannot sell tickets at all. The Sens did not sell out their home opener. As far as I know the Leafs didn't raise prices, and with no post-season in Toronto, Montreal or (likely) Edmonton this year, that's half of the $95-cent-loonie teams not getting any post-season gate receipts.

I'm not saying the cap will go down, but I'm not saying there isn't a reason to think that it would.

So are you saying you don't know one way or the other, and neither do any of us on this forum?

You asked: why should next year be any different? I see lots of reasons why this year could be different.

Tovaritch Prager, you cite no concrete economic forecasts other than the 'economy sucks' phrase to buttress your position.

These are the questions that one needs to consider when discussing this very complex subject:

Have the revenues from NHL ticket sales and merchandise declined, flatlined or risen over last year?

Are there indicators that these revenues will decline, flatline or rise in the next 10-12 months (the decision on salary cap being, logically, be made as a result of financial analysis and forecasting by the league's accountants)?

Does the lowering of the salary cap benefit the players and the NHLPA? Would they fight a further lowering of the cap, given the impact on players who lost both jobs and revenue as a result in the past few months?

Do the owners, having 'cleaned house' as it were by the attrition of a significant number of mid-range salaries, now consider that further attrition is unnecessary?

Who are the influential voices on the Board of Governors, who ultimately decide--NOT Gary Bettman--whether the cap will stay the same, go down or even rise?

With 21 of the 30 teams currently over the $54MM level, why would any of this majority lobby for a lowering of the cap, which only makes it more difficult to retain their talent and/or acquire new talent in order to field the most competitive possible product?

And when influential owners like Ed Snider, Jeremy Jacobs, Ted Leonsis, Rocky Wirtz, Mario Lemieux, Francesco Aquilini, and Mike Illitch, to name a few, are all spending close to the cap in order to maintain their box office success, why would they support a lowering of the cap?

Your perception of the economy may have its own merits, as it relates to your life. But your perception and the financial perspective of the NHL may be entirely different.

Of course, if you know the answers to these questions, then by all means, let's hear them.

For my part, I make no such assumptions, but I welcome your thoughts in the spirit of our discussion.

In an earlier post I mentioned that the Sens did not sell out their home opener. I also said that three of the six Canadian (a.k.a. "revenue generating") teams are not likely to make the playoffs. The former is a concrete example of the economy sucking (at least I am pretty convinced that is the direct cause); the latter is just one more reason *outside* the economy for predicting lower revenues.

A few months ago I said that it's very possible that the NHL owners are still not properly disclosing *all* of the revenue. In that case they have a way of kind-of artificially boosting the league revenues.

There are many games to be played, but how has attendance been over the last two full seasons and at the start of this one? The Sens came out and said their season ticket sales were down from last season. I'm sure there are other teams in the same boat.

Last year's attendance was up 1.1% over the year before, a 4-year trend. But the Sens opened without a sellout. Chicago's averaged 16,355 in two home games (last year they led the league with an average of 22,247). Montreal (2nd last year) hasn't had a home game when these pages (see link below) were updated. Detroit (#3 on the list last year) is down from 19,865 to 17,679. Philly is up slightly, from 19,545 to 19,593. Toronto is slightly down. Vancouver is up but Minnesota is down.

Sorry, I'm visiting my parents and don't have access to Excel, otherwise I'd compare the sum of averages. They do have calc.exe though

The average attendance for the top 10 clubs of 2009 adds up to 196,232. Through a very small number of games this year, the top 10 teams are averaging 187,982. That's a drop of 4.2%.

Of course, like I've already said, it's extremely early in the season. But it's also possible that attendance in the the bottom teams is down even further.

Nothing conclusive, but hardly nothing.

Anyhow, I've got to get the kids ready to leave for the 2 hour ride back to Ottawa. I'll check back in later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Go Sens!

Oops, forgot that link I promised:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?year=2010

wprager wrote:Oops, forgot that link I promised:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?year=2010

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

As you say, the numbers you cite are hardly conclusive.

FYI, the Blackhawks did sell out both their home opener and the current home game. ESPN's numbers might be skewed because of the 'home game' in Finland which had a much smaller capacity. Additionally, the renovations to the United Center have reduced seating capacity while increasing concession revenues.

Bear in mind, ticket sales, concession sales, merchandise and licensing agreements all factor into the equation...as well as revenue to the teams from other events in their buildings, as many of the teams are part of a larger entertainment and facilities corporation and/or holding company.

I look forward to your further thoughts on the aformentioned questions.

What questions?

It's been drilled into me that this is a gate-drive league. So far the average attendance is down. I'll keep monitoring as the season progresses.