Bettman: "Salary Cap will NOT go down next year"; and GMHockey investigates NHL attendance

OK, I've just taken my weekly pulse of the league (via the attendance artery). The average dropped a little -- less than 300, but still enough to drop it below last year's average. What's a little troubling about that is that this was a week when Montreal finally had their first two home games (100% capacity of the biggest arena in the league).

However it's way too early to call it a trend. We also do not know for sure if attendance goes up or down as the season progresses (I've already explained earlier why my gut thinks it goes up).

Time for another weekly update, and it doesn't look good at all. Average attendance is barely above 17,000 as it dropped another 242 from last week. Remember that this is a cumulative average, which is tempered somewhat by the good attendance figures from the opening week. In other words, the average attendance for the past week is even worse. Still too early in the season, to prognosticate the end-result (especially since we don't know the average attendance curve from last season) but the trend in the first three weeks has not bee good.

The bottom feeders in this league (and their attendance figures) are:

TEAM	...	GAMES	...	TOTAL	...		AVERAGE
Ducks		6		90,556			15,092
Bolts		5		74,939			14,987
Preds		4		54,288			13,572
Islanders		5		60,329			12,065
Coyotes		5		53,499			10,699

Comrade Prager, your diligence is impressive and has been noted by the Central Committee.

As you compile your data, you will certainly want to add the following to your analysis of the NHL's revenue streams. This officially released information today:


· Through Oct. 21, attendance increased or remained even for 18 NHL teams compared to the same number of home games last season.

· Teams with the largest gains in attendance included the Boston Bruins, Atlanta Thrashers, Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets.

· In Canada, all NHL national and local rightsholders are reporting significant viewership increases under the new viewership-measurement system.

· For the week of Oct. 5-11, NHL games were four of the top six most-watched sports programs on English-language television in Canada. CBC’s Hockey Night In Canada early regional coverage Saturday, Oct. 10, was the most-watched sports program with over 1.68 million viewers.

· For the week of Oct. 5-11, NHL programming comprised the top six most-watched sports programs on French-language television in Canada.

· Television ratings for 19 of the 24 U.S. NHL teams through Oct. 18 were up or even compared to last season.

· The Anaheim Ducks, Florida Panthers and New Jersey Devils reported triple-digit percentage increases in local ratings through the first two weeks of the season. One-third of the U.S. teams had a 50% increase or more.

· Comcast SportsNet Chicago delivered its highest Blackhawks regular-season rating ever on Wednesday, Oct. 14, for the Blackhawks’ home game against the Edmonton Oilers.

· Unique Visitors to NHL.com for the 2009-10 NHL regular season through Oct. 17 rose 25% compared to the same number of regular-season game days in 2008-09.

· Through the first 17 days of October, monthly Unique Visitors to NHL.com were up 36% compared to the same number of days of October in 2008.

· Video starts for NHL.com rose an incredible 139% during the first 17 days of October compared to the same number of the days of October 2008.

· The NHL has been successful in securing new corporate partnerships for the 2009-10 season, including ten-figure deals with Compuware and Enterprise.

· Sales for Shop.NHL.com are up 32% in FY ’10 compared to the same point in FY ’09.

· Sales at the NHL Powered By Reebok store in New York City are up over 11% in FY ’10 compared to the same point in FY ’09.

· Orders for NHL GameCenter LIVE™ are up 50% this season compared to the same the same point last season.

· Seven of the top 10 most-trafficked days all-time for NHL Mobile™, including the top three, have occurred during the 2009-10 season.

· Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, is now the all-time top traffic day for NHL Mobile.

· The Pittsburgh Penguins this season launched an exclusive HD radio channel and are attracting record local radio audiences. The Penguins are one of the first major professional sports teams to launch such a channel.

За Родина!

За родину

Dave, I'm *only* looking at attendance. I stated that right up front. However I will make some comments:

1. Attendance may be up or flat in 18 teams, but that leaves 12 that are down. Overall attendance is down.

2. I find it either hilarious or sad that the Canadian media keep telling us how "Using a new viewership measurement system numbers are up significantly!" That's like saying "I switched from pounds to kilograms and now I weigh significantly less!" What they are really saying is that they weren't measuring *all* viewership before and the actual number of people watching is higher. They can now use that info to try and get more advertising revenue. What they *cannot do*, though, is use the new numbers when comparing to previous seasons.

Regardless, in a down economy I would *expect* TV numbers to go up as fewer people shell out the cash to buy tickets.

3. The TV numbers for the US-based teams are encouraging. 19 of 24 is a heck of a lot better than 18 of 30. Unfortunately they don't say what the TV numbers are overall, but I assume they are up at least a little.

4. 10-figure deals with Compuware and Enterprise! Isn't that a 1 billion or more? Of course that could be over a span of 10 years, but still. That sounds like a hell of a lot of money, unless they are including the two positions after the decimal point. I hate it when they make it so unclear. Also, how much of that "10 figure" total will be profit? What is it, exactly, advertising at the arenas?

5. Unique visitors and video starts are nice in that it shows that interest is growing. However that brings no revenues and actually will likely end up increasing the operating costs. Game Center Live is free to try -- did they actually grow the paying customer base?

6. Ducks, Panthers and Devils reported triple digit percentage increase (that's double and up) in local viewership. Gotta love those numbers. However Anaheim is also the 5th worst in average attendance. Again, I expect viewership to increase as attendance decreases due the huge difference between tickets and TV (seen as free).

So that's about it. I've got to admit, a lot of that press release reads like it's been intentionally slanted to make things look better -- for example, why say that 18 of 30 teams are flat or up if the numbers are up overall? Obviously they aren't, so that's why you only mention how many teams are up. There are many other similar examples.

Till next week.

OK, the attendance average has dropped another 150 this week. It is now below 16,900. I'm still saying it's early, but the fact that it's continuing to drop is a bit alarming.

The Ducks attendance sucks? That's kinda shocking, I thought they were one of the longest sell-out streaks in the NHL. I must have my teams confused.

shabbs wrote:Check the attendance at the Phoenix game last night...

http://scores.espn.go.com/nhl/boxscore?gameId=291102024

Attendance: 5,855 (33.5% full)

Eek.

Wow, definitely the final year for the Yotes in Phoenix. End of story. They'd be better in the North Pole.

Actually, amusing that it could be the Winnipeg Jets that got moved to Phoenix in the first place, then moved back from Arizona to Winnipeg after failing.

SpezDispenser wrote:The Ducks attendance sucks? That's kinda shocking, I thought they were one of the longest sell-out streaks in the NHL. I must have my teams confused.

You may be thinking about the Avalanche, but that was a few years back. The Ducks have moved up this week to 7th worst (up from 5th last week). On the flip side they are up triple digits in TV viewership -- so the interest is there, but the mode of viewing is changing. Not surprising given the economy.

shabbs wrote:Check the stats so far... over half the teams are averaging 90% attendance or better...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/attendance?sort=home_pct&year=2010

And 25 of the 30 teams are averaging 80% or better.

Thing is that it's a double whammy. If the team is not selling out, then they drop prices (introduce "specials"). That 90% attendance is likely much more than a 10% drop in revenue. The really healthy teams are getting 100% or more (with standing room tickets).

Maybe this thread name needs to be changed from "the Salary Cap will not go down next year" to "NHL= Attendance Woes?"...